Los Angeles vs Golden State Picks & Props
LAL vs GS Picks
NBA PicksLendeborg has gotten his career off to a blazing start in multiple categories, and he’s stood out as a scorer with 22.6 points on 47.5% shooting. Lendeborg has 26 or more points in three straight as well as he’s quickly acclimated, and he’s facing a Lakers squad allowing 51.4% shooting to small forwards.
Reaves has opened the season with a 2-2 mark to the Over on 34.5 PRA, and the versatile wing has a good chance at one of his higher-percentile performances Friday. The Warriors are ranked No. 28 in offensive efficiency rating allowed to backcourt players (63.0) while allowing 53.2% shooting, including 40.9% from behind the arc, in that split. Reaves is shooting a blistering 56.9% in his first five games as well, including 48.1% from distance.
The Lakers have four victories to date by an average margin of 13.8 points, including one against the Warriors on Opening Night by 22 points. Los Angeles has won seven of its last eight games against Golden State overall, including two straight at Chase Center.
At 56%, I'll back the Lakers, who I price closer to 63% favorites. Luka Doncic is questionable, but I view Wednesday's absence as a potential load-management situation rather than a multi-game injury concern. Walker Kessler is the key to this projection, as his size and lob threat create a major mismatch against a Warriors lineup that could have 6-foot-7 Draymond Green defending at center.
In addition to the Lakers ML, we’re also banking on the Under hitting despite the offensive talent on both ends, as that's been the recent trend at Chase Center and in this matchup, specifically with the 234.5-point total.
Then I’m envisioning the Lakers outscoring the Warriors in the first two quarters, as they have in the first half of each of their last four road games versus Golden State. Additionally, Los Angeles is averaging a league-high 66.6 first-half points per game this season.
LAL vs GS Consensus Picks
45% picking L.A. Lakers vs Golden State to go Under
Total PicksLAL 290, GS 236
LAL vs GS Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
POINTS SCORED
Q. Grimes
(SG)
o8.5 Points Scored
11.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
27.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
D. Green
(PF)
o5.5 Points Scored
8.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.6
DIFFERENCE
26.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
L. Doncic
(PG)
u34.5 Points Scored
29.65 UNDER
PROJECTION
-4.9
DIFFERENCE
25.31%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
W. Kessler
(C)
u13.5 Points Scored
11.87 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.6
DIFFERENCE
23.19%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
J. LaRavia
(PF)
o5.5 Points Scored
6.83 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.3
DIFFERENCE
21.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
S. Mamukelashvili
(PF)
o9.5 Points Scored
10.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
19.86%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
D. Melton
(PG)
o8.5 Points Scored
10.13 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.6
DIFFERENCE
19.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
G. Niang
(PF)
o6.5 Points Scored
7.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
18.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
GS
Y. Lendeborg
(SF)
u19.5 Points Scored
17.98 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.5
DIFFERENCE
16.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
A. Horford
(C)
o4.5 Points Scored
5.70 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
16.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
A. Reaves
(SG)
u23.5 Points Scored
21.75 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.8
DIFFERENCE
15.67%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
M. Thybulle
(SG)
o6.5 Points Scored
7.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
12.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
B. Podziemski
(SG)
u14.5 Points Scored
14.02 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
9.78%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
S. Curry
(PG)
u25.5 Points Scored
24.75 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
6.42%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
G. Santos
(PF)
u9.5 Points Scored
9.00 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
5.15%
EV
|
|||||||
|
POINTS SCORED
C. Sexton
(SG)
o10.5 Points Scored
11.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
-10.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
S. Mamukelashvili
(PF)
o4.5 Total Rebounds
5.59 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.1
DIFFERENCE
21.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
GS
Y. Lendeborg
(SF)
u7.5 Total Rebounds
7.47 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
20.01%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
M. Thybulle
(SG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
3.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
19.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
S. Curry
(PG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.69 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
11.65%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
Q. Grimes
(SG)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
10.92%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
W. Kessler
(C)
o9.5 Total Rebounds
10.41 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.9
DIFFERENCE
7.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. Green
(PF)
u5.5 Total Rebounds
5.06 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
4.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
B. Podziemski
(SG)
u5.5 Total Rebounds
5.08 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
2.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
G. Santos
(PF)
u4.5 Total Rebounds
3.86 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
0.47%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
L. Doncic
(PG)
o7.5 Total Rebounds
7.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-0.43%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
C. Sexton
(SG)
o1.5 Total Rebounds
1.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-6.28%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
A. Reaves
(SG)
u4.5 Total Rebounds
4.35 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-8.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
A. Horford
(C)
o3.5 Total Rebounds
3.77 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL REBOUNDS
D. Melton
(PG)
o2.5 Total Rebounds
2.89 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-14%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
S. Curry
(PG)
o4.5 Total Assists
4.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
20.23%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. Green
(PF)
u6.5 Total Assists
5.45 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.1
DIFFERENCE
18.93%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
Q. Grimes
(SG)
o2.5 Total Assists
2.71 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
16.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Reaves
(SG)
u5.5 Total Assists
4.99 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
16.26%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
S. Mamukelashvili
(PF)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
12.58%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
B. Podziemski
(SG)
o3.5 Total Assists
3.98 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
11.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
L. Doncic
(PG)
u7.5 Total Assists
7.12 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
11.48%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
A. Horford
(C)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
6.4%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
C. Sexton
(SG)
o1.5 Total Assists
2.27 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
3.36%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
D. Melton
(PG)
u2.5 Total Assists
2.17 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
2.96%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
G. Santos
(PF)
o1.5 Total Assists
2.33 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
2.62%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
M. Thybulle
(SG)
u1.5 Total Assists
1.35 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-9.17%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
W. Kessler
(C)
o1.5 Total Assists
1.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-9.33%
EV
|
|||||||
|
TOTAL ASSISTS
GS
Y. Lendeborg
(SF)
o3.5 Total Assists
3.61 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
-10.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
L. Doncic
(PG)
u4.5 3-Pointers Made
3.52 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
16.56%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
C. Sexton
(SG)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.15 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
11.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
D. Green
(PF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
11.41%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
M. Thybulle
(SG)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.60 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
9.39%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
D. Melton
(PG)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.33 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
7.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
B. Podziemski
(SG)
u2.5 3-Pointers Made
1.91 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
4.74%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
A. Horford
(C)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.24 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.7
DIFFERENCE
2.54%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
GS
Y. Lendeborg
(SF)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.80 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.3
DIFFERENCE
-0.72%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
A. Reaves
(SG)
o1.5 3-Pointers Made
2.29 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
-2.38%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
Q. Grimes
(SG)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.37 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-6.53%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
S. Curry
(PG)
o3.5 3-Pointers Made
3.73 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-8.16%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
G. Niang
(PF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.49 PUSH
PROJECTION
0.0
DIFFERENCE
-8.34%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
S. Mamukelashvili
(PF)
u1.5 3-Pointers Made
1.43 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
-11.06%
EV
|
|||||||
|
3-POINTERS MADE
G. Santos
(PF)
o0.5 3-Pointers Made
1.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
-12.6%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
Lakers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Golden State.
Over is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 7-1 in Warriors last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 home games.
Over is 5-1 in Lakers last 6 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games as a home favorite.
ROI Trends
LAL vs GS Top User Picks
L.A. Lakers Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | rawluciano1 | 9-1-0 | +3950 |
| 2 | MillerBets54 | 9-1-0 | +3950 |
| 3 | habsfanbronco | 8-2-0 | +3900 |
| 4 | dispnum1 | 8-2-0 | +3900 |
| 5 | EiffelTower | 6-0-0 | +3000 |
| 6 | greekbanker | 6-0-0 | +3000 |
| 7 | eddynelf | 7-1-0 | +2950 |
| 8 | jjjdavis | 8-2-0 | +2900 |
| 9 | johnnyjanes | 5-0-0 | +2500 |
| 10 | pvass | 5-0-0 | +2500 |
| All Lakers Money Leaders | |||
Golden State Team Leaders
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Warriors Money Leaders | |||