NBA Picks

Atlanta has won 18 of its last 20 games, and has covered the spread in 16 of those contests. At the same time, the Knicks haven't been able to beat a team with a winning record since March 6, losing five straight to opponents above .500 in that span. I like the Hawks to win and cover at home tonight.

Alexander-Walker is shooting a crazy good 48% from 3-point range on a big 7.8 attempts from deep per game over his last 16 games. New York ranks 22nd in opponent 3-point attempts per game and 20th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

These teams generally slug it out, with the Under cashing in seven of the last 10 head-to-heads. With injuries plaguing both sides, and the Pistons playing a more inspired brand of defense of late, the Under will cash again tonight.

The Pistons rank as the 3rd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year as it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc.. The Pistons have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the league over the last 15 games on the road.. This year, opposing starting PGs have attempted 3.3 foul shots per game (5th-fewest in the league) against the Magic, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.

The Cavs would surely prefer to hang onto the No.4 seed and avoid the Celtics-Knicks side of the East bracket, but they’re 8-2 SU in their last 10 games and heavy favorites to breeze past the Grizzlies tonight.

I’m riding with a Cleveland team that’s won the last six meetings with Memphis, and there’s every reason to expect that streak to continue here given the Grizzlies’ recent form. Three of the hosts’ past four losses have come by a margin of 15+ points, and Cedric Coward and GG Jackson both missed yesterday’s defeat in Milwaukee.

The Cleveland Cavaliers will likely get a boost in opportunities in this game from facing the 5th-quickest pace home team in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Memphis Grizzlies).. The Cleveland Cavaliers rank as the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).

De’Aaron Fox’s points prop has been one of the most fascinating markets all season—it really comes down to whether you catch him in a game where he plays full minutes and sees fourth-quarter usage in a competitive setting, rather than a Spurs blowout. He scored just 14 points against the Nuggets in his last outing, but that game showed the underlying opportunity—19 field goal attempts across 40 minutes. Even with the game going to overtime, it highlights how mispriced his props can be in competitive environments. This matchup against the 76ers has a strong chance to stay close, which is key. Beyond game script, there’s also a tactical angle to like. Joel Embiid typically plays a deep drop in pick-and-roll coverage, prioritizing rim protection—especially when paired against a player like Wembanyama. That coverage should leave Fox with clean mid-range looks throughout the game, which is exactly where he’s most comfortable.

Joel Embiid has missed more games than he’s played this season, but he’s appeared in four of the 76ers’ last six games. Embiid was on a roll before missing time, hitting the Over on this combo line in 10 of 12 games before hitting the sideline. He’s reached that mark in two of four since returning.

Victor Wembanyama was torched by another big and physical center on Saturday as Nikola Jokic posted 40 points, eight rebounds, and 13 assists. Embiid can find success against the French superstar by leveraging his weight advantage and making the game more physical.

Nikola Jokic is thriving lately as a facilitator. He’s cashed the Over in dimes in six of his last seven contests. The Joker is averaging 11.2 assists at home this season, and he’s also averaging a ridiculous 12.7 dimes across his last 10 appearances. The Portland Trail Blazers are around the middle of the pack in assists allowed.

Johnson is putting up 14.8 points while shooting a crazy good 48.7% from 3-point range over his last 13 games, which includes him putting up 19 points in a recent meeting against Portland.