MLB Picks

Hernandez has yet to go deep this season, but he's hitting .320, and he just went 3-for-4 on Friday with a double. Hernandez is 4-for-13 lifetime off Jake Irvin with two long balls. 

Abrams is hitting .269 with two home runs already while driving in 10. Abrams has gone deep in back-to-back contests, and despite the loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday, he was 2-for-5 with a long ball.  Abrams is 2-for-3 off Tyler Glasnow with a bomb. 

What a start Jordan Alvarez has had to 2026, already hitting three bombs. The Houston slugger leads MLB with a .596 xwOBA, and his wOBA is second only to Sal Stewart.

His adjusted exit velo of 99.5 sits third in the bigs in the early season, and he’s cut down on his whiff rate against fastballs and breaking balls from last season.

Saturday gives him a matchup with favorable conditions, against a pitcher in Luis Morales who gave up three dingers in his opening start vs. Toronto. And he did so in less than five frames.

That’s a carryover from 2025, where Morales allowed a barrel rate of 10.9% and posted a 4.54 xFIP. He also coughed up 1.48 HR/9IP.

Alvarez has posted a wRC+ of 272 this season, third-best in the majors, while driving in a run in five of his first eight games. Add in an ISO of .480, and he’s primed to get into a pitch or two and bring in a run—doing so via a home run at +255 is worth a look too. 

Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the driest conditions of all games on the slate today at 12%.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.3-mph in this contest, the 4th-best of the day for pitchers.. Batting from the same side that Tatsuya Imai throws from, Shea Langeliers has a tough challenge in today's matchup.. In today's game, Shea Langeliers is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.4% rate (88th percentile).. Shea Langeliers has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .373 mark is a fair amount higher than his .348 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the majors's 13th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 87°.. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Oneil Cruz will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 87°.. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage today.. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Vasquez looked quite good in his opening start against the Tigers, allowing just two hits and three walks in 6 IP while striking out eight hitters. 

He showed a noticeable uptick in his fastball, sinker, and slider velocity over last season, something that was picked up on in spring training. That’s in addition to adding a good amount of spin to his cutter.

The wind in Boston is going to be blowing in from RF between 18-36 mph much of the game, which should limit big innings and allow him to go deeper into his start. 

Vasquez doesn’t need to recreate his first start. He just needs to get four Ks vs. a lineup striking out in 29.3% of plate appearances so far in 2026. That’s a great deal, even with the juice. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryce Johnson in the 4th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Bryce Johnson is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.. 22% of the time that Bryce Johnson has started against a lefty hurler since the start of last season, he has been pinch hit for.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which often leads to less offense.. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-coldest weather of all games today at 45°.

The wind is blowing in today at Yankee Stadium, but it’s not enough to get me off this Over. The Yankees have already illustrated enough diversity at the plate to suggest they can score plenty of runs with hard-contact, rather than relying on the home run.

 

Max Meyer’s average exit velocity last season was among the worst for qualified starters, which is a big problem when you’re headed to Yankee Stadium. I think we can see New York target this yet again, using the dimensional advantages of their home stadium to their benefit.

 

 

De La Cruz is hitting only .214 so far, but his power has been on full display through the first week. The Cincinnati Reds star has three home runs, and he’s gone deep in two of his last three contests. He's 2-for-2 lifetime off Kumar Rocker with a homer. 

In MLB, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 7° hotter than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Rhett Lowder throws from, Evan Carter will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Evan Carter will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Evan Carter has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits lately, hitting balls between -4° and 26° 70% of the time in the last week's worth of games.

Kansas City bats are off to a bit of a slow start, ranking 16th in OPS and 17th in wRC+, and face a Brewers bullpen that ranks second in xFIP.

The Brew Crew enter this game ranked third in both wRC+ and OPS and have plated six or more runs in five of their six games this season, going against Royals prospect Luinder Avila.

Royce Lewis's BABIP talent is projected in the 14th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Royce Lewis is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.. The 9th-deepest CF dimensions in the majors are found in Target Field.. The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to drop to the lowest level on the slate today at 37°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. In the past week, Royce Lewis's swing has not been well optimized for base hits, hitting a mere 22.2% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

The weather report projects temperatures in this contest to drop to the lowest level on the slate today at 37°, which is highly linked to an decrease in offense (and an increase in strikeouts).. In today's game, Austin Martin is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.2% rate (95th percentile).. Austin Martin has been cold lately, notching a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) over the past 7 days.

Guardians starter Slade Cecconi pitched to a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. He got rocked in his season debut and now he faces a Cubs lineup that leads the majors in hard-hit rate and is due for positive regression. The Cubs are sending Shota Imanaga to the hill. He had a 3.73 ERA last year but his FIP was significantly worse at 4.86. He also has a tendency to get hit hard and struggled in his season debut. 

The Guardians are sending Slade Cecconi to the mound after he surrendered six runs in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. He had a 4.99 xERA in 2025 while posting the second-worst barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings. The Cubs respond with southpaw Shota Imanaga who pitched to a 3.73 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP last year. Both teams are struggling at the dish but the Cubs were significantly more productive last year. They also lead the majors in hard-hit rate while the Guardians are 27th. Expect the Cubs big bats to break out against Cecconi.

Jordan Lawler’s broken wrist robs Arizona of one of the few hitters actually producing in 2026. The Diamondbacks failed to score Friday night, managing only two hits and leaving them with three runs in three games.

The Braves have scored 43 runs, but 17 of those came on Thursday night. They rank in the bottom half so far in exit velo and hard-hit rate.

Ronald Acuna Jr’s .223 wOBAcon  and .216 xBA are limiting Atlanta’s opportunities to score runs, and the Braves needed a pair of ninth-inning solo blasts to win last night. 

This total feels just a bit too high.

 

Mike Soroka’s opening start looks great at face value: 5 IP, 10 Ks, and only four hits and a walk surrendered without allowing a run.

Look deeper and you see a lot of red flags. The Tigers had a 33% barrel rate with an xwOBA of .354 and an xSLG of .534 in those five innings.

The Braves have the second-best barrel rate in MLB at 11.6%, and their .x357 xwOBA sits only behind the Dodgers this season.

Arizona’s xwOBAcon is the third-lowest in the majors, and Bryce Elder’s sinker/slider combo should enduce plenty of ground-ball outs.

 

It wasn’t a great season debut for Jesus Luzardo. The lefty got rocked in his first start, allowing a barrel rate of 11.8% as he surrendered six earned on six hits to the Rangers, including two balls that left the yard.

Yet he still struck out seven hitters with an arsenal that ranked him the 86th percentile in K rate and 87th percentile in whiff rate in 2025. He also was a bit unlucky, given his xERA of 2.86 and xFIP of 2.82 on the day.

That’s why I was shocked to see this strikeout total against Colorado. I was fully expecting it to be sitting at 7.5 with some juice on the Over, especially given the Rockies have struck out 32 times over the last two games.

Luzardo will be at a platoon disadvantage on Saturday but the Rockies have also whiffed in 12 of their 25 ABs vs. LHP this season. I’m jumping on this and laddering Luzardo up to 10 Ks as well.

 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Tyler Freeman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the best stadium in the majors for run-scoring.. Coors Field sits at the highest elevation in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to more offense.. Because of Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Tyler Freeman will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.

The Giants are second-last in the majors in OPS (.554) while ranking last in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, the Mets new-look lineup plated 10 runs last night but had mustered just three runs over their previous three games. Mets starter Clay Holmes tends to look sharp in the early innings before unravelling mid-game. He had a 2.47 ERA with an OBA of .222 through the first two innings last year. San Fran responds with Landen Roupp who could have a breakout season if he can cut down his walks. He looked sharp in his season debut, allowing just two hits across six innings of shutout ball.

San Francisco has been the worst team in the league against RHP (55 wRC+). Holmes transitioned to the rotation in 2025 and made 31 starts and posted a solid 3.53 ERA thanks to a 75th-percentile barrel rate and 94th percentile ground ball rate. 

As for the Mets, star slugger Juan Soto departed Friday’s contest in the first inning with a right calf injury. It’d be surprising if he suits up Saturday, likely leaving them without their best player in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.

New York has cashed the Under in five of its last seven games; here’s predicting another.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Jorge Soler is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. The #7 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is expected to have the 13th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

Mike Trout projects as the 9th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. The #7 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Angel Stadium.. Among all major league stadiums, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. This contest is expected to have the 12th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.