The Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Guardians play the second of a three-game set at Progressive Field tonight.
Although Chicago fell 4-1 on Friday, my Cubs vs. Guardians predictions are backing the visitors to bounce back.
Here are my top free MLB picks for this interleague showdown on Saturday, April 4.
Who will win Cubs vs Guardians today: Cubs moneyline (-126)
The Cleveland Guardians are sending Slade Cecconi to the mound after he surrendered six runs in 4 1/3 innings in his season debut. He posted a 4.99 xERA in 2025 and ranked second-worst in barrel rate and hard-hit rate among pitchers with at least 100 innings of work.
On the other side, the Chicago Cubs respond with southpaw Shota Imanaga, who pitched to a 3.73 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP last year.
Both teams are struggling at the dish, but the Cubs were significantly more productive last year. They also lead the majors in hard-hit rate, while the Guardians are 27th.
COVERS INTEL: Cleveland batted just .224 against lefties last year, while Imanaga flashed an impressive .218 OBA in 25 starts.
Cubs vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-120)
Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Bush are slugging just .308 and .320, respectively, this season. That said, Bush has an xSLG of .548, while PCA’s sits at .475. These big hitters are due for a breakout, and Cecconi could be the perfect pitcher to exploit.
While Imanaga is marginally better than Cecconi, he also tends to get hit hard. The southpaw allowed 1.9 home runs per nine innings in 2025 and gave up four runs in his season debut.
With both starters struggling and the wind blowing towards the outfield at 12 mph this evening, the total is too low at 7.5.
- ML/RL bets: 3-2, +0.3 units
- Over/Under bets: 1-0, +1 units
Cubs vs Guardians odds
- Moneyline: Chicago -126 | Cleveland +117
- Run line: Chicago -1.5 (+138) | Cleveland +1.5 (-144)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+113)
Cubs vs Guardians trend
Chicago has hit the F5 team total Over in 30 of its last 46 games (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Guardians.
How to watch Cubs vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Saturday, April 4, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga (0-1, 7.20 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Slade Cecconi (0-1, 12.46 ERA) |
Cubs vs Guardians latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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