We've got a full slate of games today — which means a full slate of MLB player props to choose from — but I'm looking at some strikeout markets that are way too low, and an elite slugger continuing to produce.
Read on to see why Jesus Luzardo and Randy Vasquez should be getting a little more respect... and why we need to jump on Yordan Alvarez's RBI prop while it's still at plus money.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Saturday, April 4.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Randy Vasquez |
o3.5 strikeouts | -130 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
o0.5 RBI | +105 |
 Jesus Luzardo |
o6.5 strikeouts | -102 |
Randy Vasquez Over 3.5 strikeouts (-130)
Randy Vasquez has never been a high-volume strikeout candidate but this is a low floor, and today’s conditions are conducive to him going deeper into the game.
The wind in Boston will be blowing in from RF between 18-36 mph for much of the game. That’s especially helpful for a pitcher sporting a career 0.72 groundout-to-airout ratio.
Vasquez looked good in his season debut, allowing just two hits and striking out eight Tigers in six innings, showing a noticeable uptick in his fastball, sinker, and slider velocity over last season — in addition to adding a good amount of spin to his cutter.
The San Diego Padres righty doesn’t need to recreate his first start either; he just needs four Ks vs. a Red Sox lineup striking out in 29.3% of plate appearances so far in 2026.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, SDPA
Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 RBI (+105)
Yordan Alvarez has had an incredibly hot start to 2026, hitting .400 with an MLB-leading .596 xwOBA, and driving in a run in five of his last seven games.
Alvarez is simply crushing the ball right now, sitting third in the bigs with an adjusted exit velo of 99.5, plus he’s cut down on his whiff rate against fastballs and breaking balls from last season.
He's in a hitter’s park today, with excellent weather conditions, against a pitcher in Luis Morales who gave up five runs in his opening start vs. Toronto, failing to finish five frames.
Yordan also has an ISO of .480, as he's launched three dingers so far as well, and considering Morales allowed a 10.9% barrel rate and had a 4.54 xFIP last year, he’s likely to get a few pitches he can hit hard — and sitting in the middle of the Houston order, there should be some traffic on or him to cash in.
I'd also sprinkle on his home run prop at +255 as well: Morales allowed 1.48 HR/9IP last year, including three bombs vs. the Jays.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, SCHN
Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 strikeouts (-102)
It wasn’t the ideal season debut for Jesus Luzardo: He was shelled for six runs on six hits vs. Texas, including two balls that left the yard, yet he still struck out seven hitters.
The lefty boasts a pitch arsenal that ranked him in the 86th percentile in K rate and 87th percentile in whiff rate in 2025, so I was shocked to see this strikeout total against Colorado.
I fully expected this to be at 7.5 with some juice on the Over, especially given the Rockies have struck out 32 times over the last two games.
Luzardo will be at a platoon disadvantage today, but the Rockies have also whiffed in 12 of their 25 ABs vs. LHP this season. I’m jumping on this and laddering Luzardo up to 10 Ks as well.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, NBCSP+
- Prop picks: 1-2, -1.02 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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