St. Louis @ San Diego Picks & Props

The #8 ballpark in MLB for suppressing BABIP to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most suitable for pitching of all games today. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 87.9-mph figure last season has decreased to 85.7-mph. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Luis Arraez has been lucky this year. His .321 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .302.

Petco Park projects as the #24 ballpark in baseball for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most suitable for pitching of all games today. Michael McGreevy will hold the platoon advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. today. Over the past 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 5.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.7%.

The #8 ballpark in MLB for suppressing BABIP to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most suitable for pitching of all games today.

Petco Park projects as the #24 ballpark in baseball for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 3rd-most suitable for pitching of all games today. Hitting from the same side that Michael McGreevy throws from, Manny Machado meets a tough challenge in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Manny Machado's true offensive skill to be a .351, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .021 deviation between that mark and his actual .372 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jordan Walker has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 92.1-mph EV. Despite posting a .273 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jordan Walker has suffered from bad luck given the .034 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Victor Scott II will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Vasquez in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Batting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Brendan Donovan is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Batting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Brendan Donovan will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Brendan Donovan's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 45.8% to 53.6%.

In the last two weeks' worth of games, Pedro Pages's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.6%. Pedro Pages has been unlucky this year, putting up a .244 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .278 — a .034 deviation.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Willson Contreras has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 90.5-mph mark. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.368) implies that Willson Contreras has experienced some negative variance this year with his .341 actual wOBA.

Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, Gavin Sheets will have an advantage in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gavin Sheets can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. Among every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Gavin Sheets will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Gavin Sheets has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95-mph average to last year's 90.8-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Grading out in the 92nd percentile, Ivan Herrera has put up a .372 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year. Checking in at the 91st percentile, Ivan Herrera sports a .290 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge in today's game. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Alec Burleson has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.2% seasonal rate to 15.4% in the last two weeks.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy today. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Among every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.

Masyn Winn's batting average skill is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Masyn Winn's launch angle this season (16.4°) is quite a bit higher than his 13° angle last year.

Batting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an advantage in today's game. Grading out in the 75th percentile, the hardest ball Nolan Gorman has hit this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 111.6 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Xander Bogaerts will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Hitting from the opposite that Michael McGreevy throws from, Ryan O'Hearn will have the upper hand in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Among every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals.

Ramon Laureano's BABIP ability is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences among all major league parks. Among every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the St. Louis Cardinals. Ramon Laureano will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Ramon Laureano has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 12.1% seasonal rate to 21.6% in the last 14 days.