MLB Picks

Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen sports a career-low 14.2 K% while allowing a career-high 45.8% hard-hit rate, so with the Cubbies sporting a league-high wOBA during their 12-3 heated, I'm expecting Gallen to have hiccups this afternoon. Similarly, Cubs starter Colin Rea doesn’t have a high-end collection of offerings, and his 4.56 ERA and 4.61 xERA as a starter since the beginning of 2023 are run-of-the-mill metrics. As a result, I also anticipate the Diamondbacks having their own success on the base paths to push this total Over the number.

The Tigers have dropped six of their past 10 games, and righty Jack Flaherty has been a disaster on the hill with 5.33 ERA and 1.74 WHIP reinforced by an equally discouraging 5.92 xFIP and 4.9 K-BB%. So, with the Detroit bullpen also sporting a 6.39 ERA across a healthy 38 innings during the same stretch, I like the Rangers to pull off the upset tonight. Texas lefty MacKenzie Gore has outpitched his underlying metrics, too, with his 4.35 ERA higher than his 3.22 xFIP and his 31.6 K% ranking sixth among qualified starters.

You can chase some of the better juice, like +128 odds for 8+ strikeouts, but Jacob Misiorowski is facing the Nationals for the first time in his career, and that's always a factor to consider. This still feels like a decent number and odds, considering the Brewers' righty has recorded at least seven strikeouts in five of his six starts on the season. Washington isn't exactly looking for great pitches. As a team, they're tied for 19th in team strikeouts per game at 8.72.

Both starters have been solid lately, giving their teams a chance, but neither has been dominant. With both bullpens struggling over the past week, late scoring is a real factor. The Over has hit in back-to-back meetings, each finishing 8-3. The Pittsburgh Pirates were rocked at home recently, while the Cincinnati Reds should capitalize offensively again.

The Phillies are heating up at the dish. They have scored 36 runs over their past seven, good for an average of 5.14 per game.

Their hard hit numbers against righties are strong and Perez is giving up a lot of quality contact. This is a good setup for them to build on strong recent production.

Miami should struggle early against Wheeler, but they’re unlikely to run him into the ground in just his second start. With a taxed Phillies bullpen behind him after Thursday’s double-header, there’s a clear path to late offense.

This matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring game with both offenses struggling against left-handed pitching. The Giants have been especially bad, sitting at 27th in OPS vs LHP over the past two weeks. That’s good news for Shane McClanahan and Robbie Ray, who are both in strong form right now. McClanahan continues his career pattern of being strong at home, while Ray has surrendered two earned runs or fewer in five of his six starts this season. San Francisco’s red-hot bullpen only strengthens the case for the Under.

Let’s take a left-handed bat vs. Simeon Woods Richardson, who is firmly circled as a fade. He faced the Toronto Blue Jays three starts ago and got shelled for five runs while lasting just 12 outs, with Toronto putting up 10 runs in that game. Outside of José Quintana, Woods Richardson owns the worst xFIP among today’s starters, and his Blast Contact numbers are also near the bottom. He’s allowed a home run in every start this year, and the Jays benefit from recent familiarity. The Minnesota Twins bullpen could also give it up, carrying a 5.40 ERA over the last 14 days — the fourth-worst mark in baseball over that stretch. Jesús Sánchez at this price is the play for me. His swing speed ranks among the best on the team, and his fast-swing rate trails only Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. I’ll take him over Dalton Varsho, who is 50 points shorter. I love the Jays’ offense today.

Andy Pages continues to hit well after a forgettable postseason run, 12th in the majors with a .321 average, as the Dodgers open a set with St. Louis on Friday. He has hits in five of his last six games, including three games with at least a double. Pages has picked up at least a hit in two straight vs. the Cards, including a two-double game. It's a nice time to take a flier on a double, with those nice +250 odds.

Ozzie Albies has been tearing it up for the MLB-best Braves, with hits in 12 straight games, including picking up at least three total bases in five of his last seven games. He has absolutely owned Rockies starter Jose Quintana, going 9-for-19. That's a .474 average, and a slugging percentage of 1.053, as he's homered off him three times, adding two doubles and four RBI. There's not a better situation for him to keep raking.

The Mets have struggled to generate offense, ranking tied for 29th in runs per game.

The recent return of Juan Soto helps but the lineup still has plenty of holes, limiting their ability to consistently capitalize on scoring opportunities.

While the Angels possess a good offense, the Mets’ bullpen has allowed flyballs at the seventh-lowest rate. Their ability to keep the ball out of the air should help neutralize an Angels attack that relies heavily on power and extra base hits.

These teams have played to the Over in only one of the past 10 head-to-head meetings, and this sets up well for another lower scoring affair.

White Sox starter Noah Schultz has put up zeros in consecutive first innings, and this is a soft matchup with the Padres ranking 28th in baseball against lefties. Plus, I give Schultz an edge because no Friars have had an MLB plate appearance against him. Of course, San Diego has also scored in the opening inning at the third-lowest rate in baseball, and I also think Padres veteran German Marquez can take care of the top of the frame. The White Sox sport a 26th-ranked wOBA against righties and have only scored in the first inning in 29% of their games. 

While both offenses rank 20th or worse, the Seattle Mariners are heating up, scoring 12 runs during their current streak and averaging 4.67 at home. They match up well against Cole Ragans, who has struggled badly on the road. Even if Kansas City scratches a few runs, their bullpen issues should allow Seattle to control scoring and secure the win.