St. Louis @ Chicago Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Lars Nootbaar's launch angle this year (17.7°) is considerably higher than his 5.9° figure last year. Despite posting a .314 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Lars Nootbaar has suffered from bad luck given the .027 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .341. With a 1.69 K/BB rate this year, Lars Nootbaar has shown favorable plate discipline, placing in the 79th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Brendan Donovan has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Brendan Donovan has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 9.4% seasonal rate to 21.6% over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Over the last 14 days, Alec Burleson has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 9% to 22.9%. Alec Burleson has put up a .348 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 78th percentile.

Thomas Saggese's BABIP skill is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Thomas Saggese will have an advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 76th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Masyn Winn is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Masyn Winn will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Boyd in today's matchup.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Reese McGuire will have an edge in today's game. Reese McGuire will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Reese McGuire has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.2-mph average to last season's 89.1-mph mark. Compared to last year, Reese McGuire has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15% to 27.5% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Ian Happ is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Erick Fedde. Ian Happ will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Kyle Tucker will have the upper hand in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Kyle Tucker will hold that advantage in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Michael Busch ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Michael Busch is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Michael Busch will have the handedness advantage against Erick Fedde in today's game. Michael Busch will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Nolan Gorman has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph to 94.8-mph in the past two weeks. Nolan Gorman's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, rising from 47.5% on the season to 63% over the past two weeks.

Yohel Pozo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Yohel Pozo will hold the platoon advantage over Matthew Boyd today.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Willson Contreras will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner as the 18th-best hitter in the league when estimating his batting average skill. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Nico Hoerner will hold that advantage in today's matchup. By putting up a .282 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Nico Hoerner is ranked in the 86th percentile. Sporting a 1.26 K/BB rate this year, Nico Hoerner has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, ranking in the 94th percentile.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Nolan Arenado will have the upper hand today. Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Nolan Arenado has displayed favorable plate discipline this year, checking in at the 87th percentile with a 1.52 K/BB rate.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Pedro Pages will have the upper hand today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 20th-best hitter in MLB. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Seiya Suzuki will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Garrett Hampson will have the upper hand in today's game. Garrett Hampson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 17.9% to 21.1%.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the handedness advantage over Erick Fedde today. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold that advantage in today's game.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Matt Shaw will hold that advantage today. Matt Shaw has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 82.9-mph to 85.7-mph in the past 14 days. Matt Shaw's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, going from 15.9% on the season to 30.8% in the past week. When it comes to his batting average, Matt Shaw has been unlucky this year. His .210 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .247.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage today. Dansby Swanson has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.9-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.4-mph average.

Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense. Carson Kelly will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Carson Kelly has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.2% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week. Carson Kelly's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, falling from 15% on the season to 0% over the last 7 days.