San Diego @ Milwaukee Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average skill. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Xander Bogaerts's true offensive talent to be a .327, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .039 gap between that mark and his actual .288 wOBA. With a 1.69 K/BB rate this year, Xander Bogaerts has demonstrated strong plate discipline, placing in the 79th percentile.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Tyler Wade will have an advantage in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Tyler Wade generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Freddy Peralta.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Arraez in today's game. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 87.9-mph average last year has fallen to 85.2-mph.

Hitting from the same side that Ryan Bergert throws from, Jackson Chourio will not have the upper hand in today's matchup. Jackson Chourio's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 89.7-mph EV last year has dropped to 87.1-mph. Jackson Chourio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 16% to 10.5%. Jackson Chourio's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, falling from 10.5% on the season to 7.5% over the past 14 days. As it relates to plate discipline, Jackson Chourio's ability is quite bad, sporting a 5.85 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 7th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Martin Maldonado in the 0th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Martin Maldonado is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the same side that Freddy Peralta throws from, Martin Maldonado will be in a tough position today. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Martin Maldonado today. Martin Maldonado has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 7 days.

Gavin Sheets is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Hitting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Gavin Sheets will have the upper hand today. Gavin Sheets has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.9-mph average to last season's 90.8-mph figure. Gavin Sheets has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal EV of 95.9-mph.

Brice Turang's batting average ability is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Brice Turang is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Brice Turang will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Bergert today. Brice Turang hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

When assessing his batting average ability, Jackson Merrill is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Batting from the opposite that Freddy Peralta throws from, Jackson Merrill will have the upper hand in today's game. Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage over Freddy Peralta in today's matchup. In the last week, Jake Cronenworth's 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.6%. As it relates to his batting average, Jake Cronenworth has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .242 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .274.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Isaac Collins will hold that advantage in today's game. Isaac Collins has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph to 91.5-mph over the past 14 days. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Isaac Collins's 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Manny Machado is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Manny Machado's launch angle this season (16°) is quite a bit better than his 12.5° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Yelich in the 96th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Christian Yelich is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Christian Yelich will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Bergert in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Christian Yelich tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Bergert.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Caleb Durbin hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences today. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Caleb Durbin will hold that advantage today. Caleb Durbin has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.3-mph to 87.1-mph in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 82nd percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Sal Frelick is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Bergert throws from, Sal Frelick will have the upper hand in today's game. Sal Frelick hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 10th-best batter in the majors. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Fernando Tatis Jr.'s true offensive talent to be a .377, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .034 difference between that figure and his actual .343 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects William Contreras in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. William Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball batters like William Contreras usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Bergert.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Bergert throws from, Jake Bauers will have an advantage today. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Jake Bauers will hold that advantage in today's game. Jake Bauers has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.5% rate last season to 20.4% this year.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast predicts for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today. The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest among every team today. Rhys Hoskins will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. Rhys Hoskins's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (28.5° over the past 14 days) is significantly better than his 19.9° seasonal figure. Compared to last year, Rhys Hoskins has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 37.9% to 44.4% this season.