Dinger Tuesday was the best day of the season after cashing a pair of home runs for +490 and +370. It was the first double-dinger day of the year and certainly not the last. Let's find some Wednesday spots and dig into those home run predictions and MLB player props.
Tomoyuki Sugano is going to face a force in Elly De La Cruz with decent hitting conditions at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, and the only thing that can stop Yordan Alvarez from crushing Chris Bassitt today is likely the rain in Baltimore.
These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, April 29.
Best MLB home run props today
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Elly De La Cruz
Yordan Alvarez
Elly De La Cruz (+310)
Elly De La Cruz is on a heater, coming off a three-hit game with his 10th home run of the season, which he launched off the Colorado Rockies bullpen. He gets an elite matchup today vs. Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been one of the luckiest pitchers this year and likely owes bettors after escaping a home start vs. the San Diego Padres last time out. He threw 101 pitches — the second-most of his MLB career — which could impact him today at Great American Ball Park with winds blowing out. Few pitchers last year had a worse HR/FB rate than this Rockies starter.
The Reds’ shortstop is slashing .400/.464/.880 over his last six games with four home runs and is climbing the NL MVP odds. He’s been better vs. right-handers over his career, but if Colorado turns to a lefty, that’s fine too — he owns a 1.212 OPS vs. southpaws this year. It’s square, but that’s working right now.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, Rockies.TV
Yordan Alvarez (+310)
It’s not getting more square than this, but Yordan Alvarez at +310 to go deep is still +EV, per Covers projections. The fair price for the best hitter in baseball to go yard sits closer to +270.
Alvarez is a freak. He leads baseball in most standard and advanced metrics and hasn’t homered in four straight games — his longest drought of the year. He may also have this matchup circled, as Chris Bassitt has struggled against him. Alvarez is 5-for-22 with five home runs and a 1.598 OPS vs. Bassitt in his career.
Winds are blowing out, though there is some rain risk that could ruin this great spot. Bassitt has also allowed all of his home runs this year to left-handed hitters.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, Space City Home Network
- HR picks: 8-48, -6.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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