Dinger Tuesday was the best day of the season after cashing a pair of home runs for +490 and +370. It was the first double-dinger day of the year and certainly not the last. Let's find some Wednesday spots and dig into those home run predictions and MLB player props.
I'm eyeing a pair of Cincy bats in my top home run picks for Wednesday, April 29.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Elly De La Cruz |
+310 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
+570 |
| Matt McLain |
+520 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +10715 |
Elly De La Cruz (+310)
Elly De La Cruz is on a heater, coming off a three-hit game with his 10th home run of the season, which he launched off the Colorado Rockies bullpen.
He gets an elite matchup today vs. Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been one of the luckiest pitchers this year and likely owes bettors after escaping a home start vs. the San Diego Padres last time out.
He threw 101 pitches — the second-most of his MLB career — which could impact him today at Great American Ball Park with winds blowing out. Few pitchers last year had a worse HR/FB rate than this Rockies starter.
The Reds’ shortstop is slashing .400/.464/.880 over his last six games with four home runs and is climbing the NL MVP odds.
He’s been better vs. right-handers over his career, but if Colorado turns to a lefty, that’s fine too — he owns a 1.212 OPS vs. southpaws this year. It’s square, but that’s working right now.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, Rockies.TV
Pete Crow-Armstrong (+570)
Pete Crow-Armstrong snapped a long home-run drought last night with his second dinger of the year and draws a strong matchup today vs. Matt Waldron.
The knuckleballer has been fortunate to stick in a rotation spot and has already allowed 12 runs (including two homers) over his first two starts.
That’s a tough profile against a surging Chicago Cubs offense that leads the league in wOBA over the past two weeks, making this another spot where Chicago bats can do damage.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has the fastest bat speed on the Chicago Cubs this year, which could play well against the fluttering knuckleballs from Matt Waldron.
Waldron is unlikely to go deep, which brings in the San Diego Padres' bullpen — and they may not have Mason Miller available at the back end.
The fair price for this sits around +490, per Covers projections.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SDPA, Marquee Sports Network
Matt McLain (+520)
Let’s double-dip on Tomoyuki Sugano and his trip to Great American Ball Park. I’ve already backed Elly De La Cruz in this matchup and am betting on the Colorado starter getting shelled.
He gets squared up at a high rate, his fly balls leave the yard, and the wind is blowing out. He’s also coming off a lucky outing vs. the San Diego Padres, where he didn’t allow a homer — the first time all year.
Matt McLain is hitting out of the two-hole and should be priced about 100 points shorter. He has the second-longest odds among Cincinnati Reds hitters to go deep, but THE BAT projects him as the No. 3 most likely.
McLain is four games removed from a two-homer game vs. the Detroit Tigers, and his 33% opposite-field fly-ball rate plays well with the short right-field dimensions at GABP, especially with 13 mph winds blowing out.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Reds.TV, Rockies.TV
- HR picks: 8-48, -6.6 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Elly De La Cruz |
Bet Now +10715 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
|
| Matt McLain |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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