Texas @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the lowest temperature of all games on the slate at 58°. Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Texas Rangers. Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 94.1-mph mark last season has dropped off to 90.9-mph. Last season, Jarren Duran had a launch angle of 8.4° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this season he experienced a significant decline to just 3.7°.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense. Cold weather is strongly correlated with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the lowest temperature of all games on the slate at 58°. Lucas Giolito will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Wyatt Langford in today's matchup. Among all the teams on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox. Wyatt Langford will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Joc Pederson ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Joc Pederson is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Joc Pederson will have the upper hand in today's game. Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Kristian Campbell is projected as the 8th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kristian Campbell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions in the league. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Kristian Campbell will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 10th-best batter in MLB. Corey Seager is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's right field fences are the shallowest. Corey Seager will hold the platoon advantage against Lucas Giolito today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rafael Devers in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Rafael Devers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nathan Eovaldi in today's game. Rafael Devers has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Trevor Story hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Trevor Story will hold that advantage in today's game. With a .360 BABIP since the start of last season, Trevor Story finds himself in the 94th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Wilyer Abreu will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nathan Eovaldi in today's game. Wilyer Abreu pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 96th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Romy Gonzalez has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Romy Gonzalez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Romy Gonzalez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.7-mph to 98.2-mph in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Josh Jung has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.4-mph average to last year's 92.3-mph mark. Josh Jung has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 95.4-mph.

The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions in the league. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Connor Wong will hold that advantage in today's game. In notching a .332 BABIP since the start of last season, Connor Wong has performed in the 91st percentile.

The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Jonah Heim hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Jonah Heim has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91-mph average to last year's 88.5-mph mark. Compared to last year, Jonah Heim has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 38.4% to 47.1% this season.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Josh Smith ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Josh Smith is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's right field fences are the shallowest. Batting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Josh Smith will have an advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Alex Bregman are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.

The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Ceddanne Rafaela has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage today. Ceddanne Rafaela has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 12.5% seasonal rate to 18.5% in the past two weeks. Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 90.3-mph figure.

The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Carlos Narvaez has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Carlos Narvaez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats. Carlos Narvaez has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 13.1% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the past 7 days. Carlos Narvaez has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 105.3-mph average over the past week to his seasonal average of 88.4-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 78th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions in the league. There has been a significant improvement in Adolis Garcia's launch angle from last season's 14.8° to 24.3° this season. Despite posting a .281 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Adolis Garcia has suffered from bad luck given the .043 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.

The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league parks, Fenway Park's right field fences are the shallowest. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Abraham Toro will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Marcus Semien is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. The #4 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Marcus Semien has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.5-mph average in the last week to his seasonal EV of 89.7-mph.

Blaine Crim has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 6 games.