MLB Picks

The Cubs are positioned to have a breakout day at the dish and have scored 24 runs across their past four games. Of course, the Pirates have also been dangerous with a deeper and more potent lineup than years past and rank seventh in wOBA against lefties to start the season.

Chicago will receive a boost with Seiya Suzuki making his season debut this afternoon, and the Cubbies have also been on the unlucky side to start the year with ranks of second in hard-hit rate and sixth in barrel percentage leading to a 25th-ranked BABIP. Additionally, Pittsburgh righty Carmen Mlodzinski has surrendered a 68.0% hard-hit rate through two starts, and three of his five offerings have negative pitch values.

Carpenter has already taken Marlins starter Chris Paddack deep before, going 3-for-5 with a bomb. The slugger has two long balls this season, and Paddack has an ERA over eight so far. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Comerica Park as the 10th-best park in baseball for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.. Graham Pauley will hold the platoon advantage against Keider Montero in today's game.

The Phillies' top hitters are leading the power outage. Kyle Schwarber has struck out in 19 of 41 ABs. Trea Turner has 11 strikeouts and a .655 OPS. Bryce Harper is hitting .222. They went a combined 5-for-18 with no extra base hits in the two shutout losses.

The rest of the lineup was 3-for-44, .068.

The D-Backs will face Jesus Luzardo, who has a 0.94 WHIP but has had some hard luck, which has led to a 4.97 ERA far above his 2.60 FIP.

The Phillies are in a teamwide offensive funk. Philly scored 10 runs in Colorado on April 3. In the five games since, they've scored a total of nine and were shut out by San Francisco in their last two. 

Arizona, meanwhile, has allowed two runs or fewer four times in the last six games.  The D-Backs start Michael Soroka, who is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA and as many strikeouts (13) as batters who reached base (8 hits, 4 walks, 1 HBP).

Burns has been dominant to start the season. While he showed some vulnerability to lefties last year, the Angels’ lineup is right-handed heavy.

Most of their notable bats – including Zach Neto, Mike Trout and Jorge Soler – are righties, working in Burns’ favor. 

The Angels rank 22nd in wOBA and 27th in line drive rate against right-handed pitching. They’re not a team that should cause Burns problems.

On the other side, Kochanowicz looks improved with a .211 average and .285 wOBA allowed. He draws a Reds offense sitting 28th in wOBA vs. righties.

With both sides struggling against righties, and a good pitching matchup, the Under is appealing.

Reds starter Chase Burns has allowed next to nothing through two games, holding opponents to a .154 average, .213 wOBA, and .77 ISO.

Burns leads all of today’s starters with a 37.2 K%, a 42% whiff rate, and a 20.6% swinging strike rate. He is giving up little to no contact and sitting hitters down at an electric rate.

Jack Kochanowicz is not nearly as capable at missing bats and he allows a lot of good contact to lefties – something top of the lineup bats Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl could exploit.

Expect the Reds’ pitching advantage to shine through.

Springers' ability to hit the fastball, paired with the 50% usage on that pitch for Woods Richardson, should give him an edge to take it deep over the wall. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is due for some positive regression after a slow start to the year. He’s hitting just .268 with only two XBH. However, under the hood, he’s posting a more impressive .299 xBA with a .500 xSLG this season. The Jays slugger may have started his turnaround in his last outing against the Dodgers, where he went 2-for-3 with a double. 

While I feel good enough about backing Matz as an underdog, he’s still going to give up some runs. There are a few hitters in this lineup, like Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, and Aaron Judge, who have some decent results against him with a decent sample. That makes sense too. The Yankees were one of the best teams in baseball against southpaws last season, and Matz has routinely had a hard-hit issue ranking in the bottom 30th percentile of the past two seasons. 

 

Gil's 2024 breakout seems long forgotten after 2025. His chase rate plummeted to the bottom 1st percentile (20.0%), his walk rate ballooned to 13% (2nd percentile), and his xERA sat at 4.96 despite a 3.32 actual ERA. This is his first start after being optioned, and Tampa has the profile you’d like to fade him

 

 

The Baltimore Orioles have an edge in starting pitching, relief pitching, and hitting, so I’m buying the home team as a slight favorite. The San Francisco Giants have been the worst team in the league against RHP (61 wRC+), whereas Baltimore has been slightly above average (104). Their relievers have combined for a 3.94 FIP (San Francisco 4.47). Shane Baz’s velocity is up half a tick, and his 104 Stuff+ is encouraging, whereas Landen Roupp struggles with walks (3.97 per nine innings) and allowed seven runs to the Mets in his prior start. 

These are two quality starting pitchers, as Roupp has a 1.37 FIP while Baz isn’t far behind (2.88). San Francisco has been miserable at the plate and now has to travel across the country and face a tough opponent. It doesn’t project as a breakout spot. Baltimore has been on a prolonged Under stretch, going 13-22 O/U in its last 35 games dating back to last season.

It’s been a slow start to the year for Ronald Acuna Jr, hitting just .204 with no homers in his first 49 at-bats, but there are signs of him heating up.He rapped a pair of doubles against the Angels last time out, doubling his two-base total on the year. He’s 1-for-3 in his career against Slade Cecconi, but this matchup is more about how the righty got rocked in his lone road start of the year. Cecconi was pelted for six hits and six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in an 8-0 loss to the Mariners.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Chase DeLauter ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Chase DeLauter is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The #9 ballpark in the league for boosting base hits to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park has the 5th-shallowest CF fences in the majors.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which often leads to better offense.

Milwaukee ranks Top 5 in runs per game and OPS, and the Brewers are set to take advantage of Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin, whom they have slashed .351/.439/.625 against. The home team should roll on Friday.

When estimating his BABIP ability, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks American Family Field as the 9th-best field in the majors for LHB home runs.. Among all parks, American Family Field's CF dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.. Among all major league parks, American Family Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.

Let’s keep riding these Kansas City Royals Unders. They’ve moved to 9-4 to the Under and have scored just three runs over their last three games, all without facing top-end pitching. Bobby Witt can't get it going, and the middle of the order has yet to find any power. The White Sox are still a Bottom-5 offense. This sets up similarly to yesterday’s 2-0 game, with another comparable starting pitching matchup on tap against the Chicago White Sox. Conditions also lean Under, with temperatures still below 60 degrees and winds now blowing in at 10 mph after blowing out at 20 mph last night. This number looks a bit inflated and should close closer to a flat 8.

This year, Carter Jensen has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 16% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and the weather forecast for this contest projects the 4th-lowest temperature of the day at 58°.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-strongest of the day for mound aces.. Carter Jensen pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.4% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's deepest RF fences today.. In the past week's worth of games, Carter Jensen's swing has not been well optimized for home runs, hitting a mere 0% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

The Boston Red Sox are trading at -143 on FanDuel, and that’s a price worth attacking—I make them closer to a -195 favorite in this matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals. Dustin May relies heavily on his power sinker, but when it doesn’t have its usual bite—especially against left-handed hitters—it tends to run into their barrels. Lefties can punish those flatter sinkers, often driving them out of the park. Early in the season, that sinker hasn’t shown much movement, which is reflected in the numbers—left-handed hitters are batting .500 with a 1.542 OPS against him. That’s where this matchup becomes a real concern. The Red Sox lineup is built to exploit it, with left-handed bats like Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, and Wilyer Abreu stacked at the top of the order.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Pedro Pages (the Cardinals's expected catcher today) grades out as a good pitch framer.. The #1 ballpark in the league for suppressing home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.. In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium's right field dimensions are the 2nd-deepest.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the 5th-best among every team today.

I think you’re getting far too good of a price on the Rockies here. On one side, you have a starting pitcher and lineup that the market isn’t very familiar with, while on the Padres’ side, you have brand-name sluggers like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, along with a recognizable starter in Walker Buehler. The Rockies are trading at +160 on the moneyline, but I make it closer to +125. Tomoyuki Sugano is a command-first pitcher who mixes six different pitches, and I think he can frustrate the heart of this Padres lineup with proper sequencing. San Diego’s core hitters prefer to sit on fastballs, but Sugano can keep them off balance by throwing a variety of looks. Having the marine layer at Petco Park working in his favor only adds to the edge in this spot.

When estimating his home run ability, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Petco Park has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the most humid conditions of all games today at 80%.. Brenton Doyle has a ton of pop (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (29.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Walker Buehler doesn't generate many whiffs (14th percentile K%) — great news for Doyle.. Brenton Doyle hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 4th-best hitter in MLB.. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for long-balls.. The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 4th-best hitter in MLB.. Yordan Alvarez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-smallest outfield in MLB — generally good for long-balls.. The weather forecast predicts the 2nd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Texas ranks 22nd in on-base percentage against right-handed pitchers and have only scored 3.7 runs per game, so I expect Glasnow to hold the Rangers in check. And, while Los Angeles stands to have success at the dish, I don't think they're going to do enough damage to send this total Over the number tonight.

Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow has been dealing to start the year with a tidy 3.00 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 2.44 xFIP while holding opposing hitters to a miniscule 27.6% hard-hit rate. Los Angeles is also second in both wOBA and ISO against righties, so I expect them to do damage against Texas starter Kumar Rocker given his 9.29 ERA,1.97 WHIP and 5.01 xFIP on the highway since the beginning of 2025.