Let's kick off the weekend with some winners from our MLB best bets!
Our baseball experts have given their favorite MLB picks for today based on prices from Polymarket, which allows MLB fans across the country to get in on the baseball action.
Our favorite plays for today go back to a profitable Under well, back a roster with a favorable pitching matchup, and start early with a pick for the 2:20 p.m. ET game.
- UPDATE: Added best bets for LAA/CIN, SF/BAL, and TEX/LAD.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: CWS/KC u8.5 |
-122 |
 Jon Metler: BOS ML |
-138 |
 Neil Parker: CHC ML |
-138 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: White Sox/Royals Under 8.5
Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket
Let's keep riding these Kansas City Royals Unders. They've moved to 9-4 to the Under and have scored just three runs over their last three games — all without facing top-end pitching. This sets up similarly to yesterday’s 2-0 game, with another comparable starting pitching matchup on tap against the White Sox. Conditions also lean Under, with temperatures still below 60 degrees and winds now blowing in at 10 mph (after blowing out at 20 mph last night). This number looks a bit inflated, and it should close closer to a flat 8.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Red Sox moneyline
Price: 58¢ (-138) at Polymarket
The Red Sox are trading at 58% on Polymarket, and that’s a price worth attacking — I make them closer to a 66% favorite today against the St. Louis Cardinals. Dustin May relies heavily on his power sinker, but when it doesn’t have its usual bite — especially against left-handed hitters — it tends to run into their barrels. Early in the season, that sinker hasn’t shown much movement, which is reflected in the numbers: lefties are batting .500 with a 1.542 OPS against him... and that’s where this matchup becomes a real concern: The Red Sox lineup is built to exploit it, with left-handed bats like Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, and Wilyer Abreu stacked at the top of the order.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 58¢ (-138) at Polymarket
The Chicago Cubs will receive a boost with Seiya Suzuki making his season debut this afternoon, and the Cubbies have also been on the unlucky side to start the year. They rank second in hard-hit rate and sixth in barrel percentage, so positive regression to a 25th-ranked BABIP is coming — and Pirates righty Carmen Mlodzinski is the perfect get-right candidate, surrendering a 68% hard-hit rate through two starts, with three of his five offerings having negative pitch values.
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dodgers -1.5 | -107 |
| Read analysis in our team vs. team predictions | |
| Giants/Orioles u8.5 | -110 |
| Read analysis in our team vs. team predictions | |
| Reds ML | -177 |
| Read analysis in our Angels vs. Reds predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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