MLB Picks

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber finds himself in a great spot this evening against Cleveland Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams. The Phillies designated hitter owns the highest hitter rating in this matchup, per Batters-Box. In 96 elite ratings at home, Schwarber has produced incredible trends, recording at least a hit 64.58% of the time and cashing this prop 56.25% of the time. The slugger has also surpassed 2+ HRR in eight of his last 10 elite ratings. Left-handed hitters have given Williams hell this season, as he has allowed a ton of hard contact and plenty of home runs, nine through 10 starts.

Bubba Chandler throws a hard four-seamer, ranking in the 96th percentile in velocity. Kazuma Okamoto seems to match up well with this pitching profile. He owns a .602 xSLG against the four-seam fastball with a 67% hard-hit rate, barreling the ball in 14% of at-bats against the pitch. The Jays’ third baseman also has a team-leading five home runs against the four-seamer.

The Detroit Tigers right-hander owns an 18.4% walk rate on the road this season, allowing 3.6 walks per road outing. Meanwhile, on the other side, the Baltimore Orioles have six hitters with at least a 7.7% walk rate. Zoom in a little more, and four guys own a walk rate of 11.1% or higher. Overall, as a team, they sport a 10.3% walk rate, tied for 10th in baseball. If trying to find the zone on the road is Flaherty's kryptonite, I want to continue taking the over on his walks, especially away from home.

Let’s add the best left-handed bat in baseball against a pitcher who allows plenty of fly balls and has been more vulnerable to left-handed hitters. Shohei Ohtani started the year slowly, much like several other WBC participants, but the swing looks fully back after homering last night. He draws another strong indoor matchup today with real home-run upside against Logan Henderson. Ohtani is slugging .926 over his last seven games with seven extra-base hits, and if he can’t snap my HR cold stretch, nobody can. The fair price on this, per the projections at Covers powered by THE BAT, is +210.

The Royals have scored in the opening inning in just 24% of their games to tie for sixth least in the majors, and Mariners starter Logan Gilbert has surrendered a 1.045 OPS in the first inning after allowing a .645 mark in 2025, so this is a great spot for the righty to flip the early script. Seattle also ranks 29th in wOBA against left-handed starters, and Royals southpaw Noah Cameron has fired a scoreless first frame in six of eight starts with a 2.25 ERA.

The Rangers have scored in the first inning at the eighth-lowest clip in baseball this season, and Los Angeles righty Grayson Rodriguez held the Los Angeles Dodgers off the board in the first in his season debut last time out. Additionally, Texas veteran Jacob deGrom is also eyeing statistical correction in the opening frame. He’s allowed four first-inning homers with a 1.010 OPS, so considering he’s only surrendered 10 total bombs and a .625 OPS overall, I’m expecting his early struggles to subside Friday. The Angels rank 28th in wOBA against righties, after all.

Arizona checks every box tonight against a Rockies team it’s consistently dominated at home, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings in the desert. Michael Soroka has been dominant in Arizona with a 1.59 ERA across five home starts, and now draws a Colorado lineup ranked 27th in OPS against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. On the other side, Tomoyuki Sugano has to navigate a D-backs offense leading MLB in runs scored over the last week, while Arizona also owns the clear bullpen edge.

San Diego Padres starter Walker Buehler also has poorly rated average hitter matchup numbers in wOBA, ISO, and strikeout percentage. Over his last couple starts, Buehler has allowed right-handed hitters to make a ton of hard contact and elevate the baseball, posting just a 34.9% ground ball rate over the last 60 right-handed hitters faced. Shea Langeliers owns the third-highest arsenal coverage on the day among elite-rated hitters, crushing nearly 75% of Buehler's offerings. On top of that, he has been terrorizing right-handed pitching this season, owning a 16.19% barrel rate.

This matchup features two pitchers in decent form, especially Davis Martin, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in every outing since Opening Day. Trevor McDonald also owns a solid 2.37 ERA, while both offenses have struggled lately. Four of the last five meetings between these clubs have also cashed the Under.