MLB Picks

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the majors.. Hitting from the opposite that George Kirby throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have an advantage in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 11th-weakest out of all the teams today.

As it relates to his home run talent, Luke Raley ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #9 stadium in the game for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is T-Mobile Park.. Homers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the majors.. Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage over Michael Burrows in today's matchup.. Luke Raley will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The Baltimore Orioles draw one of the better hitting environments on the board today, ranking as the third-best park for home runs, and get a favorable matchup against Ryne Nelson. The Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander carries one of the highest fly-ball rates in baseball, and when paired with a 42% hard-hit rate, it’s a strong setup for power. He’s already allowed multiple home runs in two of his three starts this season. Gunnar Henderson is off to a strong power start with six home runs, among the league leaders. While the average is down, the quality of contact is there, with nine of his 15 hits going for extra bases. He is riding a six-game hitting streak, which also includes four longballs. Covers projections, powered by THE BAT, price this home run closer to +380. There’s also some matchup history, with Henderson going 2-for-4 with a home run off Nelson, adding another layer of confidence to the play.

Jose Fernandez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The weather report predicts the 2nd-best hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. In the past week, Jose Fernandez has posted a 26° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

Paul Skenes vs. Cade Cavalli is a matchup prospect hounds would have been licking their chops for a couple of years ago. The Nationals offense is overperforming expectations so far, but Skenes can neutralize these bats. Meanwhile, I don't trust the Pirates to put up enough runs to clear this total.

CJ Abrams is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. This matchup is forecasted to have the 10th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. CJ Abrams will hold the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes in today's matchup.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the 11th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.. CJ Abrams has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.8-mph average to last season's 88.6-mph figure.

Kyle Schwarber still ranks among the elite in nearly every batted ball metric, resulting in him clearing the fences with regularity, especially against righties. He'll add to his resume against Cubs RHP Javier Assad tonight.

Even if the Phillies jump on Cubs starter Javier Assad, Cristopher Sanchez has shown an ability to limit damage against even the best offenses. Chicago simply hasn't been one of them yet, either. This number is at least a run too high.

I'm taking a big shot at the Yankees' shortstop at the highest price I've hit in this article for a homer. Jose Caballero might not have much time left with the club, as Anthony Volpe is beginning his rehab assignment tomorrow. Still, he has a great opportunity to showcase tonight at Yankee Stadium with 16-mph winds blowing out and a matchup vs. Yusei Kikuchi. The Angels' starter gives up a lot of flyballs, and only five other starters have given up hard-hit balls at a higher rate than the Lefty at 48%. He has avoided giving up a lot of home runs this season (just one allowed), but the dingers are coming, and Caballero has already taken him deep in his career. He also handles lefties better than righties. It's a giant price with a lot of checkmarks. 

 

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. In Major League Baseball, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4-mph in this game, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Aaron Judge will have an advantage in today's matchup.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has gone 6-for-18 (.333) in the last four, picking up his first homer of the season, along with a pair of doubles and a triple. He's had success against struggling Marlins starter Eury Perez (in a small sample) and will add to his tally today.

 

When estimating his home run talent, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Truist Park projects as the #9 venue in the majors for RHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude in MLB. High elevation tends to lead to better offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 81°.. Among every team today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony as the 12th-best batter in Major League Baseball as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Roman Anthony is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Target Field ranks as the #5 ballpark in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Roman Anthony will have the handedness advantage against Bailey Ober in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Roman Anthony usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Ober.

Ceddanne Rafaela's batting average ability is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Target Field ranks as the #5 ballpark in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to better offense.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 13th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Minnesota Twins.. Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 99.1-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 91.4-mph.

I also like the Under on 8.5, but the Guardians have the edge on the mound with Gavin Williams over Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore. The southpaw doesn't generate whiffs, and Cleveland doesn't offer many. Take the Guardians to BABIP their way to a road victory.

Even though Shea Langeliers hasn't gone deep in seven games, the A's catcher has ranked among the league's best in many batted ball metrics, including expected slugging and average exit velocity. That puts him in the sweet spot against Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi tonight.

Corey Seager projects as the 7th-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The #4 park in MLB for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Sutter Health Park has the 4th-shortest fences among all major league parks.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.7-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-strongest of the day for batters.

Four of the last six meetings between LA and New York have cashed the Under. I truly do believe the Dodgers will score runs here off Peterson in particular, but the Mets, on the other hand, are 21st in runs scored, and they’ve lost five straight. In fact, they’ve failed to score a single run in two of their last three games, with the Athletics shutting them out on Friday and on Sunday.

Los Angeles is off to a strong start, going 11-4. They’re set to face Mets southpaw David Peterson, who has a 6.14 ERA through three starts. Opponents are hitting .344 against him. Unfortunately, it won’t get any easier here. This Dodgers lineup has a total of 125 at-bats against Peterson, and they’re hitting .325 off him.