Several hitters enter Wednesday's slate with underlying power metrics that suggest more home runs could be on the way in my MLB player props.
I'll include Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kazuma Okamoto, and Freddie Freeman in today's home run parlay.
Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, June 3.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
+487 |
 Kazuma Okamoto |
+525 |
 Freddie Freeman |
+571 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +24517 |
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+487)
Pete Crow-Armstrong is starting to heat up. Over the last week, he owns a 63.2% hard-hit rate and 26.3% barrel rate. While PCA has just one home run during that stretch, the underlying metrics are excellent, evidenced by a .772 expected slugging percentage. The Chicago Cubs outfielder has consistently punished mistakes and should like this matchup against Athletics left-hander Jeffrey Springs.
Springs has allowed 50% of his contact against left-handed hitters to come in the air this season, with 10% of those fly balls leaving the yard. The veteran has also been vulnerable recently, as 36.3% of the fly balls he's allowed across his last two starts have resulted in home runs.
That's a dangerous setup for Crow-Armstrong, who has consistently elevated the baseball lately, posting an average launch angle above 26 degrees over his last 30 plate appearances.
I'll play this pick up to +400.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, NBC Sports California
Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+525)
Kazuma Okamoto has emerged as the Toronto Blue Jays' premier power threat, launching 13 home runs this season. The Blue Jays slugger is locked in at the plate, posting a 27.3% barrel rate and .556 ISO over his last seven games. What's even more encouraging is the way he's generating that power, putting 50% of his contact in the air during that span.
That profile matches up well against Atlanta Braves starter Grant Holmes. Over his last two outings, Holmes has allowed a 52% hard-hit rate and 20% barrel rate, both indicators that opposing hitters are consistently making dangerous contact. He's also surrendered a 37.5% fly-ball rate during that stretch.
That's an appealing combination for a hitter like Okamoto, whose recent surge has been fueled by both elite quality of contact and consistent lift. If Holmes continues allowing elevated hard contact, Okamoto has a strong chance to capitalize.
I'll play this pick up to +450.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, Sportsnet One
Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+571)
Freddie Freeman has shown signs of finding his power stroke recently, putting 38.1% of his contact in the air over the last week while posting a 37.5% HR/FB rate. While his 9.5% barrel rate is modest compared to some of baseball's elite sluggers, Freeman continues to generate the type of contact capable of leaving the yard.
The matchup is what stands out most. Zac Gallen has allowed a 44.1% hard-hit rate and 14.7% barrel rate across his last two starts, suggesting opposing hitters are consistently making dangerous contact. Freeman has also enjoyed some success against Gallen throughout his career, taking him deep twice in 29 at-bats.
If Gallen's recent contact issues persist, Freeman has a favorable opportunity to capitalize.
I'll play this pick up to +500.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, Dbacks.TV
- HR picks: 8-51, -12.81 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
Bet Now +24517 |
| Kazuma Okamoto |
|
| Freddie Freeman |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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