Several hitters enter Wednesday's slate with underlying power metrics that suggest more home runs could be on the way in my MLB player props.
I'll include Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kazuma Okamoto.
Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, June 3.
Best MLB home run props today
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Pete Crow-Armstrong
Kazuma Okamoto
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+487)
Pete Crow-Armstrong is starting to heat up. Over the last week, he owns a 63.2% hard-hit rate and 26.3% barrel rate. While PCA has just one home run during that stretch, the underlying metrics are excellent, evidenced by a .772 expected slugging percentage. The Chicago Cubs outfielder has consistently punished mistakes and should like this matchup against Athletics left-hander Jeffrey Springs.
Springs has allowed 50% of his contact against left-handed hitters to come in the air this season, with 10% of those fly balls leaving the yard. The veteran has also been vulnerable recently, as 36.3% of the fly balls he's allowed across his last two starts have resulted in home runs.
That's a dangerous setup for Crow-Armstrong, who has consistently elevated the baseball lately, posting an average launch angle above 26 degrees over his last 30 plate appearances.
I'll play this pick up to +400.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, NBC Sports California
Home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+525)
Kazuma Okamoto has emerged as the Toronto Blue Jays' premier power threat, launching 13 home runs this season. The Blue Jays slugger is locked in at the plate, posting a 27.3% barrel rate and .556 ISO over his last seven games. What's even more encouraging is the way he's generating that power, putting 50% of his contact in the air during that span.
That profile matches up well against Atlanta Braves starter Grant Holmes. Over his last two outings, Holmes has allowed a 52% hard-hit rate and 20% barrel rate, both indicators that opposing hitters are consistently making dangerous contact. He's also surrendered a 37.5% fly-ball rate during that stretch.
That's an appealing combination for a hitter like Okamoto, whose recent surge has been fueled by both elite quality of contact and consistent lift. If Holmes continues allowing elevated hard contact, Okamoto has a strong chance to capitalize.
I'll play this pick up to +450.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, Sportsnet One
- HR picks: 8-51, -12.81 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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