MLB Picks

Ben Rice finds himself in an outstanding matchup against Braxton Ashcraft, who has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters recently. According to Batters-Box, Rice covers over 91% of Ashcraft’s arsenal, creating a strong matchup for the Yankees slugger. Lefties have generated elite power metrics against Ashcraft over his last 60 batters faced, including a .825 xSLG and .319 ISO. Rice has also been dominant against right-handed pitching, posting a .692 SLG, 1.092 OPS, and .384 ISO over his last 30 at-bats. With both the matchup data and recent form pointing his way, Rice is in a great spot to go deep.

Kyle Schwarber is in a premium matchup against Dodgers right-hander Emmet Sheehan, and the market appears to be adjusting quickly. Schwarber owns an elite Batters-Box rating with 82.5% arsenal coverage in this matchup, and his elite ratings have translated into home runs nearly 35% of the time over the last three years. Sheehan has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing significant hard contact and elevation recently. With Schwarber generating nearly 60% hard contact against righties over his last 60 at-bats, the power upside is massive. While one home run is the safer route, the value lies with two nukes.

Payton Tolle draws a matchup I am excited to attack against an Orioles lineup that continues to carry plenty of strikeout upside. While Baltimore has been heating up offensively, their strikeout tendencies against left-handed pitching remain a major concern. The Orioles own a 26% strikeout rate versus southpaws this season, with multiple hitters carrying elevated strikeout numbers in their recent at-bats against lefties. Meanwhile, Tolle has maintained a 30% strikeout rate at home and over his last three starts. With a favorable matchup and a +125 price on 7 strikeouts, this feels like strong value on the right-hander.

Colt Keith is in a fantastic spot to take advantage of Jameson Taillon and the conditions at Wrigley Field. With the wind blowing out, Keith’s elite Batters-Box rating and strong arsenal coverage make him an appealing home run target. The Tigers third baseman has been crushing right-handed pitching recently, posting a .654 SLG, 1.021 OPS, and .346 ISO over his last 30 at-bats. Taillon has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing significant elevation and power production. With Keith’s recent form, matchup data, and a favorable hitting environment, this is an excellent spot to back the Tigers slugger to go Ya-Ya.

The Nationals are in an excellent spot to attack Kyle Freeland and the Rockies pitching staff at Coors Field. While an over 3.5 runs team total can be intimidating, Washington’s ability to score early makes this matchup appealing. The Nationals rank second in first five runs scored, averaging over 3 runs through the first 5 innings. Freeland has struggled mightily at home this season, posting a 6.38 ERA and 1.58 WHIP while allowing plenty of hard contact. With a lineup featuring 6 elite rated hitters and 1 strong rated hitter, Washington has a great opportunity to produce early offense.
 
 

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.