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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 4, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+120 
|
o8.0 -118 
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.13 |
-130 
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +165 
|
Detroit
- Over is 5-0-1 in Mizes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Monteros last 7 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Mizes last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Williams' last 4 starts on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.90 |
-157 
|
o9.5 -108 
|
-1.5 +100 
|
|
5.02 |
+147
|
u9.5 -105
|
+1.5 -115
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Brewers last 5 on grass.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Reds are 4-0 in Lowders last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Top Projection
Matt McLain o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.70 |
+101
|
o6.5 -118 
|
+1.5 -220
|
|
3.96 |
-108
|
u7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +160
|
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Sales last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Over is 5-0 in Sanchezs last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Phillies are 6-0 in Sanchezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.14 |
+175
|
o8.0 -125
|
+1.5 -130
|
|
5.34 |
-186
|
u8.5 -113
|
-1.5 +120
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Angels last 6 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Angels last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-1-1 in Angels last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 5-0-1 in Pirates last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 games a home underdog.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Pirates last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.74 |
-115
|
o8.5 +100
|
-1.5 +145
|
|
4.15 |
+105
|
u8.5 -114
|
+1.5 -160
|
Boston
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 on grass.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
Baltimore
- Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-1-1 in Orioles last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 vs. American League East.
Top Projection
Mickey Gasper o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.55 |
-130
|
o7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
3.72 |
+120
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -148
|
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 8-2 in Cubs last 10 vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
- Under is 4-0 in Cubs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
Miami
- Marlins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Marlins are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+243)
o0.5+243
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.89 |
+162
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -129
|
|
4.94 |
-177
|
u8.5 -122
|
-1.5 +120
|
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0-2 in Giants last 6 overall.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Giants last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Giants last 6 on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 road games.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Mets last 9 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.32 |
+125
|
o8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
|
4.91 |
-135
|
u8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +160
|
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Cleveland
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 overall.
- Over is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 on grass.
- Over is 4-1 in Guardians last 5 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.11 |
+110
|
o9.0 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
5.35 |
-120
|
u9.5 -120
|
-1.5 +162
|
Minnesota
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Twins last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Twins last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a home favorite.
- White Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. American League Central.
- Over is 9-1 in White Sox last 10 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 home games.
Top Projection
Kody Clemens o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
o0.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.48 |
-106
|
o7.5 -130
|
-1.5 +152
|
|
4.47 |
+105
|
u8.5 -125 
|
+1.5 -170
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 8-0 in their last 8 vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 road games.
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 on grass.
Texas
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 on grass.
- Over is 10-1 in Rangers last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.37 |
+123
|
o8.5 -125
|
+1.5 -182
|
|
4.62 |
-125
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +165
|
Arizona
- Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Houston
- Under is 2-0-2 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 1-0-3 in Astros last 4 interleague games as an underdog.
- Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 interleague games.
Top Projection
Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+135)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.19 |
+105
|
o9.5 -115
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
4.94 |
-113
|
u10.0 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
Toronto
- Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Kansas City
- Over is 6-0-2 in Royals last 8 games a home underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Royals last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total RBIs (+141)
o0.5+141
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.65 |
-130
|
o11.5 -105
|
-1.5 +115
|
|
5.61 |
+120
|
u11.5 -110
|
+1.5 -131
|
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
- Over is 8-0 in Cardinals last 8 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Colorado
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 home games.
- Under is 7-0 in Rockies last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Hunter Goodman o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)
o0.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.47 |
-125
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
3.35 |
+115
|
u7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -152
|
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
San Diego
- Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 vs. American League East.
- Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Top Projection
Max Fried o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+2000)
o3.5-150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.21 |
+270
|
o8.0 -114
|
+2.5 -140
|
|
4.91 |
-300
|
u8.5 -120
|
-2.5 +115
|
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games as an underdog.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 7-1 in Nationals last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. National League East.
- Over is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 vs. National League East.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.24 |
+190
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -120
|
|
4.72 |
-200
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +112
|
Athletics
- Over is 5-0-1 in last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 4-0-1 in last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 overall.
Seattle
- Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-1 in Mariners last 7 vs. American League West.
- Mariners are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.
- Mariners are 0-4 in their last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
o1.5+100
DET
@
CLE
Fri, Sep 4 • 2:10 PM ET
Total Hits
HL
Hao-Yu Lee u0.5 Total Hits (+155)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Total Bases
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Riley Greene is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Progressive Field projects as the #3 stadium in the game for LHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field has the 6th-shallowest right field fences in the majors.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report predicts the 2nd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate at 86%.
MIL
@
CIN
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Jake Bauers o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Jake Bauers is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 95°.. Jake Bauers will have the handedness advantage against Rhett Lowder in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Sal Stewart o1.5 Total Bases (+107)
Projection 1.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Sal Stewart ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Sal Stewart is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures on the slate today at 95°.. Sal Stewart will have the handedness advantage over Shane Drohan in today's game.. Sal Stewart has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
ATL
@
PHI
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+101)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
I mean, this is as good as it gets. Two NL East rivals battling for the division, with Chris Sale and Cristopher Sánchez on the mound. I'm not going to overthink this one. I'm backing Sale and the Braves, especially with Sale coming off a dominant complete-game shutout against the Los Angeles Dodgers. You know he's in elite form right now. The Phillies' offense is heavily dependent on production from three left-handed bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Luis Arraez. That makes it difficult to back Philadelphia at this price against a left-hander like Sale. Schwarber and Harper both look to drop the barrel and elevate pitches in the lower half of the strike zone, but Sale can counter that swing path with his sweeping slider. The Braves are trading at 50% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 53% favorite in this spot.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Ozzie Albies o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-109)
Projection 2.03
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ozzie Albies is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Cristopher Sanchez... and even better, Sanchez has a large platoon split.. Ozzie Albies pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball bats like Ozzie Albies are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.
LAA
@
PIT
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. This game is forecasted to have the most humid conditions on the slate today (86%); there is a small but significant correlation with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Ryan Johnson in today's game.. The Los Angeles Angels infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of every team in action today.
Total RBIs
Oswald Peraza o0.5 Total RBIs (+350)
Projection 0.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
BOS
@
BAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+146)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage over Shane Baz today.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
Total Bases
Trevor Story o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Trevor Story has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
CHC
@
MIA
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Michael Conforto u1.5 Total Bases (-245)
Projection 0.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Conforto in the 16th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Michael Conforto is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today's game.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -9° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Michael Conforto pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 75th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. Michael Conforto will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Alex Bregman o0.5 Total RBIs (+191)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
SF
@
NYM
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Francisco Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+202)
Projection 1.43
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 91st percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Francisco Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Matt Wilkinson in today's matchup... and moreover, Wilkinson has a large platoon split.. Francisco Alvarez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's shallowest CF fences today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Francisco Alvarez will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Christopher Morel u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
MIN
@
CHW
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Kody Clemens o0.5 Total Home Runs (+315)
Projection 0.23
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Kody Clemens ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kody Clemens is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Kody Clemens will have an edge in today's game.. Kody Clemens pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs
Kody Clemens o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.74
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Kody Clemens ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kody Clemens is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Kody Clemens will have an edge in today's game.. Kody Clemens pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
TB
@
TEX
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Cedric Mullins o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Wyatt Langford will hold that advantage in today's game.
AZ
@
HOU
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Nolan Arenado o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.38
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Nolan Arenado is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.. Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the 5th-worst among every team playing today.
Total Bases
Jose Altuve u1.5 Total Bases (-179)
Projection 0.9
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The Minute Maid Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.. Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Jose Altuve faces a tough challenge in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the 4th-best out of all the teams on the slate today.
TOR
@
KC
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:10 PM ET
Total
o9.5 (-115)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
Where has this Toronto Blue Jays offense been all year? They exploded for 17 runs across their last two games against the Cleveland Guardians and have a plus matchup against Daniel Lynch, who will be on another short leash tonight. If the Jays can get to Lynch early, they should be able to eat the second-worst bullpen in the bigs alive (5.09 ERA). On the other side, Jameson Taillon is making his first start back from injury after rocking a 11.88 ERA in July and 3.38 ERA in August. With a bullpen that was used up yesterday afternoon, the Royals will do their part to get us across the line.
Total Hits
Michael Massey u0.5 Total Hits (+175)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Michael Massey's BABIP skill is projected in the 17th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Michael Massey is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.. Michael Massey pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's deepest RF fences today.. Extreme flyball bats like Michael Massey are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jameson Taillon.
STL
@
COL
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
TJ Rumfield o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
T.J. Rumfield is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.9-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.. T.J. Rumfield will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and T.J. Rumfield will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Alec Burleson o1.5 Total Bases (-140)
Projection 2.37
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 86°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.9-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Alec Burleson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Feltner today.
NYY
@
SD
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Trent Grisham o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Trent Grisham will hold the platoon advantage over Walker Buehler in today's matchup.. Trent Grisham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
Strikeouts Thrown
Max Fried o8.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+2000)
Projection 5.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Max Fried in the 78th percentile among all SPs in the game.. Max Fried has averaged 92 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 78th percentile.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Wells (the Yankees's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as a good pitch framer.. This game is forecasted to have the 4th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Due to his reverse platoon split, Max Fried should be in good shape going up against 7 hitters in the projected batting order of opposing handedness in today's matchup.
WAS
@
LAD
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Teoscar Hernandez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. Teoscar Hernandez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jackson Kent today.. The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Teoscar Hernandez will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
Kyle Tucker u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kyle Tucker is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Hitting from the same side that Jackson Kent throws from, Kyle Tucker will have a disadvantage in today's matchup.. Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 78th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's game.
ATH
@
SEA
Fri, Sep 4 • 10:10 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Cal Raleigh o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
Projection 2.26
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Cal Raleigh projects as the 4th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Cal Raleigh will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (J.T. Ginn) today.. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.9% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Cal Raleigh tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like J.T. Ginn.
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The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
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