MLB Picks

Brady House might not be a household name yet, but he’s hitting in the middle of the Washington Nationals lineup from the right side and gets a strong matchup today against lefty Nick Lodolo, who was roughed up in his first start back last week while continuing to see his fly-ball rate climb. If Lodolo can’t keep the ball on the ground, it could be a short outing with 14-mph winds blowing out to center field. Returning from the blister that sidelined him, Lodolo surrendered two home runs while recording just 16 outs last week and threw only 78 pitches. That could mean plenty of innings for a Cincinnati Reds bullpen that owns the worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks at 8.77, along with a league-worst 2.10 HR/9. House went yard yesterday and has four extra-base hits over his last six games with great BlastCon% numbers. 

In a season from hell, Dylan Cease has been one of the bright spots for Toronto, sitting second in the AL in strikeouts and having gone seven strong innings in consecutive appearances, allowing just three earned runs across those outings. With Tampa Bay right-hander Griffin Jax entering this one with a 5.00 ERA, expect Toronto to find some traction on offense and cover the run line. 

The Kansas City Royals lineup is loaded with right-handed bats in the middle of the order, especially the red-hot Bobby Witt Jr., but Noah Schultz isn’t your typical left-handed pitcher. The towering 6'10" lefty throws from a low three-quarter arm slot and features a sweeping slider that he can bury at the back foot of right-handed hitters. Because of that arm angle and the movement on the slider, right-handed batters often struggle to pull the ball for power against him. The only other major power threat in the lineup is Vinnie Pasquantino, who has historically struggled against left-handed pitching. On the other side, the Chicago White Sox can stack as many as seven left-handed hitters against Seth Lugo, which gives them a meaningful platoon advantage throughout the lineup. When you put all of that together, I think the White Sox should be trading closer to -125 favorites in this matchup.

Josh Naylor is trading at +570 to hit a home run against Lance McCullers Jr. and the Houston Astros on Wednesday, and you should run to the window to place this bet, not walk. I price Naylor closer to +420 to hit a home run, which means this prop is showing a massive edge at the current number. McCullers is going to try to live at the bottom of the strike zone with his sinker, but Naylor is an excellent low-ball hitter. The upward path of his swing allows him to lift pitches at the bottom of the zone and drive them out of the ballpark with power. If McCullers doesn’t have enough movement on the sinker—especially while dealing with a blister issue—there’s a good chance he leaves a pitch right in Naylor’s nitro zone.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.