MLB Picks

Luis Garcia Jr. has been pinch hit for 52% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.. PNC Park has the 7th-most fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally bad for long-balls.. Extreme flyball batters like Luis Garcia Jr. are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Braxton Ashcraft.. Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Garcia Jr. in today's game.. Luis Garcia Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 9.3% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 7 days.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 6th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Matt Vierling has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) but may find it hard to clear the league's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's game.. Among every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.

The Under is 9-1 in the past 10 meetings between these teams. That’s where I’m looking this afternoon, with the Yankees and Angels both sitting in the bottom third of the league in batting average, and they only combined for 13 hits last night.

Even if the New York offense is firing, the total could be held in check with Fried limiting L.A. baserunners. The Yankees' lefty got through eight innings of work last weekend against the Tampa Bay Rays, and five of New York’s last six home games have fallen short of this 9.5 O/U line.

This year, Nathan Lukes has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 35% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. Typically, bats like Nathan Lukes who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Brandon Sproat.. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nathan Lukes in today's game.

The home-run setting is strong on the South Side of Chicago today, with double-digit winds blowing out to left-center field. The Tampa Bay Rays also get the ninth-inning guarantee and a favorable group of arms to target. Opener Jordan Leasure could go a couple of innings, and two of the six hits he’s allowed have left the yard. He’s expected to hand it off to lefty Anthony Kay, who has posted solid surface numbers, but there are signs of regression. His command has been shaky with eight walks in 14+ innings, and, to get nerdy, his ideal attack angle rate ranks near the bottom of the league. I'm backing Yandy Diaz at +470. He hits at the top of the order and could see five plate appearances. His BlastCon% is the best on the team, and he is red-hot with a hit and an RBI in five straight games.

Sticking with the Texas Rangers/Oakland Athletics game, Nick Kurtz projects as the best home run bet on the home side at +410, with a fair price around +330/+340. It’s a strong lefty vs. righty matchup, and Kurtz has already taken Jack Leiter deep in just three plate appearances. The reigning Rookie of the Year hasn’t produced at the surface level, but the underlying power metrics are still there, including the best swing speed on the team and room for growth in his Blast Contact% numbers. Leiter continues to give up loud contact and is coming off a four-walk, two-homer outing vs. the Dodgers. Not many pitchers enjoy working at Sutter Health Park.

Cleveland southpaw Parker Messick has been extremely impressive but his strikeouts prop looks a tad inflated against Baltimore today. The rookie has gone below 5.5 strikeouts in two of three starts this season. He doesn't have overpowering stuff and his whiff rate is in the 30th percentile. He generates most of his strikeouts due to a high chase rate but Baltimore doesn't chase many pitches. The Orioles are 21st in the majors in strikeout rate (23.7%) but have trimmed that number to 19.7% over the last week. There's also a chance they get to Messick early since they have a sizzling .796 OPS against lefties. 

The Astros have been lights out offensively at home, ranking first in OPS and runs per game, but their pitching has been brutal. Ryan Weiss has been getting smacked around, resulting in a 7.36 ERA and is backed by a bullpen that’s been downright pitiful, posting a 7.04 ERA over the last two weeks. Colorado has already piled up 30 runs in five meetings vs the Astros this season, so the recipe for another Over is clear.

Two of the last three meetings have cashed the Under. Castillo's brilliance against this San Diego lineup is hard to ignore, while Buehler has held his own this season. Seattle's track record versus the righty is something to keep in mind, but I don't see them tagging him with a bunch of runs.