MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on April 16, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

WAS @

PIT Thu, Apr 16 • 12:35 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Luis Garcia Jr. u0.5 Total Hits (+195)

Projection 0.69

Best Odds

u0.5 +200

Pick made: 18 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +195

u0.5 +185

u0.5 +174

u0.5 +200

Luis Garcia Jr. has been pinch hit for 52% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.. PNC Park has the 7th-most fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally bad for long-balls.. Extreme flyball batters like Luis Garcia Jr. are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Braxton Ashcraft.. Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Garcia Jr. in today's game.. Luis Garcia Jr. has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 9.3% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 7 days.

+200 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Total Bases

James Wood u1.5 Total Bases (-164)

Projection 0.93

Best Odds

u1.5 -160

Pick made: 18 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u1.5 -172

u1.5 -190

u1.5 -164

u1.5 -160

The #1 field in the majors for suppressing home runs to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. PNC Park has the 6th-tallest average fence height in the league.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-deepest LF fences today.. Extreme flyball bats like James Wood tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Braxton Ashcraft.. James Wood will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.

-160 at Fanatics Sportsbook

View 10 Picks

SF @

CIN Thu, Apr 16 • 12:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Matt Chapman u0.5 Total Hits (+160)

Projection 0.79

Best Odds

u0.5 +160

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +159

u0.5 +160

u0.5 +120

u0.5 +155

u0.5 +160

Batting from the same side that Chase Burns throws from, Matt Chapman will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup.. Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 11th-deepest CF fences today.. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Matt Chapman in today's game.. Matt Chapman has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 9.8% rate last season has dropped off to 4.2% this season.. Matt Chapman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, going from 15.2% to 6.1%.

+160 at bet365

Total Hits

Eugenio Suarez u0.5 Total Hits (+160)

Projection 0.81

Best Odds

u0.5 +160

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +136

u0.5 +160

u0.5 +120

u0.5 +137

u0.5 +140

Eugenio Suarez's BABIP talent is projected in the 20th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Landen Roupp will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eugenio Suarez in today's matchup.. Eugenio Suarez's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 90.2-mph average last season has dropped to 84-mph.. In the last week, Eugenio Suarez's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 93.8 mph to 74.6 mph.. Compared to his seasonal mark of 15.8°, Eugenio Suarez has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (6.8°) in the last 14 days.

+160 at bet365

View 10 Picks

KC @

DET Thu, Apr 16 • 1:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Jahmai Jones u0.5 Total Hits (+130)

Projection 0.66

Best Odds

u0.5 +130

Pick made: 4 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +126

u0.5 +125

u0.5 +130

Jahmai Jones is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.. Comerica Park has the 2nd-deepest CF fences in the majors.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 6th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Among every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.

+130 at Caesars

Total Hits

Matt Vierling u0.5 Total Hits (+165)

Projection 0.81

Best Odds

u0.5 +165

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +141

u0.5 +135

u0.5 +165

u0.5 +145

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 6th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Matt Vierling has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) but may find it hard to clear the league's 10th-deepest RF fences in today's game.. Among every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Kansas City Royals.

+165 at BetMGM

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LAA @

NYY Thu, Apr 16 • 1:35 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Oswald Peraza u0.5 Total Hits (+119)

Projection 0.64

Best Odds

u0.5 +119

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +119

u0.5 +105

u0.5 -105

u0.5 +117

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oswald Peraza in the 25th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Oswald Peraza is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.. Yankee Stadium ranks as the #27 ballpark in the majors for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest elevations in the majors, which generally leads to worse offense.. Oswald Peraza hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 5th-deepest CF fences today.

+119 at DraftKings

Total Bases

Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+100)

Projection 2.31

Best Odds

o1.5 +100

Pick made: 2 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +100

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Judge ranks as the best hitter in baseball.. Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Yankee Stadium has the 6th-shortest fences in MLB.. The weather report projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the highest level of the day at 85°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.5-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for batters.

+100 at BetMGM

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TOR @

MIL Thu, Apr 16 • 1:40 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Nathan Lukes u0.5 Total Hits (+175)

Projection 0.81

Best Odds

u0.5 +175

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +165

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +175

u0.5 +156

u0.5 +155

This year, Nathan Lukes has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 35% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.. The #6 park in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.. Typically, bats like Nathan Lukes who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Brandon Sproat.. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.. Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nathan Lukes in today's game.

+175 at BetMGM

Total Bases

Daulton Varsho o1.5 Total Bases (+147)

Projection 1.7

Best Odds

o1.5 +147

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +147

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +135

o1.5 +130

o1.5 +139

o1.5 +140

Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects American Family Field as the 8th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for lefty home runs.. In Major League Baseball, American Family Field has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation in MLB. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. This matchup is expected to have the 6th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

+147 at DraftKings

View 10 Picks

TB @

CHW Thu, Apr 16 • 2:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Tanner Murray u0.5 Total Hits (+130)

Projection 0.67

Best Odds

u0.5 +130

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +114

u0.5 +105

u0.5 +130

u0.5 +119

u0.5 +120

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tanner Murray in the 11th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Tanner Murray is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 7th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Tanner Murray is not very fast, ranking in the 22nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 25.74 ft/sec this year.

+130 at BetMGM

Total Hits

Everson Pereira u0.5 Total Hits (+150)

Projection 0.75

Best Odds

u0.5 +150

Pick made: 36 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +140

u0.5 +110

u0.5 +120

u0.5 +150

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Everson Pereira in the 14th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 7th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Everson Pereira's quickness has decreased this year. His 28.31 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.65 ft/sec now.. Using Statcast data, Everson Pereira is in the 17th percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .247.. Based on Statcast data, Everson Pereira ranks in the 8th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .159.

+150 at Fanatics Sportsbook

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$Texas Rangers logo$ TEX @

ATH Thu, Apr 16 • 3:05 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Carlos Cortes u0.5 Total Hits (+150)

Projection 0.7

Best Odds

u0.5 +150

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +119

u0.5 +150

u0.5 +135

u0.5 +128

u0.5 +115

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Cortes in the 9th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Carlos Cortes has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 48% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.. In today's matchup, Carlos Cortes is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (89th percentile).. This year, there has been a decline in Carlos Cortes's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.61 ft/sec last year to 25.6 ft/sec currently.. Carlos Cortes has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits of late, striking balls between -4° and 26° just 33.3% of the time over the past 7 days.

+150 at bet365

Total Hits

Sam Haggerty u0.5 Total Hits (+130)

Projection 0.68

Best Odds

u0.5 +130

Pick made: 1 hours ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +120

u0.5 -110

u0.5 +130

u0.5 +126

u0.5 +115

Sutter Health Park has the 6th-deepest LF fences among all major league stadiums.. The Athletics outfield defense profiles as the strongest among all the teams today.. Sam Haggerty will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. Sam Haggerty's 2.4% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) grades out in the 17th percentile since the start of last season.. Sam Haggerty and his 4.1° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 9th percentile, among the lowest in the game since the start of last season.

+130 at BetMGM

View 10 Picks

BAL @

CLE Thu, Apr 16 • 6:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Jeremiah Jackson u0.5 Total Hits (+180)

Projection 0.87

Best Odds

u0.5 +180

Pick made: 22 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +163

u0.5 +180

u0.5 +165

u0.5 +162

u0.5 +165

Jeremiah Jackson is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.. Jeremiah Jackson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 12% of the time when starting against a left-handed pitcher since the start of last season.. The weather report predicts the 8th-most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The Cleveland Guardians outfield defense profiles as the 5th-strongest among every team playing today.. Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jeremiah Jackson today.

+180 at bet365

Total Bases

Chase DeLauter o1.5 Total Bases (+140)

Projection 1.8

Best Odds

o1.5 +140

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +121

o1.5 +140

o1.5 +100

o1.5 +130

o1.5 +122

o1.5 +110

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Chase DeLauter ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Chase DeLauter is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Progressive Field as the 3rd-best stadium in the game for left-handed BABIP.. Built 673 feet above sea level, Progressive Field has the 7th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.6-mph in this contest, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

+140 at bet365

View 10 Picks

COL @

HOU Thu, Apr 16 • 8:10 PM ET

10 Computer Picks

Total Hits

Edouard Julien u0.5 Total Hits (+124)

Projection 0.71

Best Odds

u0.5 +125

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

u0.5 +125

u0.5 +115

u0.5 +110

u0.5 +124

u0.5 +125

38% of the time that Edouard Julien has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.. Minute Maid Park profiles as the #22 ballpark in baseball for LHB batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. The weather forecast predicts the 7th-best hitting weather on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The Houston Astros outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best out of all the teams in action today.

+125 at DraftKings

Total Bases

Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-115)

Projection 2.37

Best Odds

o1.5 -110

Pick made: 56 seconds ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 -113

o1.5 -115

o1.5 -130

o1.5 -111

o1.5 -118

o1.5 -110

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 3rd-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Minute Maid Park profiles as the #6 venue in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Minute Maid Park has the least fair ground in the league — generally good for HRs.. Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage over Juan Mejia today.

-110 at Fanatics Sportsbook

View 10 Picks

SEA @

SD Thu, Apr 16 • 8:40 PM ET

1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks

Moneyline

SEA (-118)

Best Odds

-115

Pick made: 16 hours ago

-122

-120

-115

Right-hander Luis Castillo has had the Padres’ number over the years, limiting San Diego hitters to a .206 batting average and .521 OPS. With the Mariners’ offense set to face the sputtering Walker Buehler, expect Seattle to prevail at Petco.

Total Bases

Luke Raley o1.5 Total Bases (+250)

Projection 1.52

Best Odds

o1.5 +250

Pick made: 42 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o1.5 +185

o1.5 +250

o1.5 +175

o1.5 +180

o1.5 +190

When estimating his home run talent, Luke Raley ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In the majors, Petco Park's CF fences are the shallowest.. Among all major league parks, Petco Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. Luke Raley will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler in today's game.. Luke Raley has strong power (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (31% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Walker Buehler doesn't generate many whiffs (8th percentile K%) — great news for Raley.

+250 at bet365

View 11 Picks

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