MLB Picks

There won’t be many opportunities this season to back Chase Dollander in a true pitcher-friendly ballpark, considering his home games come at Coors Field, but this is one of them, and I have no problem hitting the button on a pitcher who has looked like an ace this season. Dollander features a high-velocity fastball that sits around 99 mph along with elite, high-spin secondary pitches. Those off-speed pitches should have even more bite at PNC Park than they typically do at altitude in Colorado. A power right-hander with a high-carry four-seam fastball is also a nightmare matchup for the long swing of Oneil Cruz. If you can neutralize Cruz, the Pittsburgh Pirates offense looks a lot less dangerous. I price the Colorado Rockies closer to +120 underdogs in this matchup.

I absolutely love this price point for Christian Yelich to hit a home run, especially in his home ballpark and against Griffin Canning. I mean, +700 against Griffin Canning? What are we even doing here? I price Yelich closer to +510 to hit a home run on Thursday, so there’s a massive edge at the current number. With the Milwaukee Brewers lineup finally healthy, Yelich is much better protected in the order, and I think the favorable matchup his teammates have against Canning will indirectly help this prop as well. If hitters like Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio are getting on base ahead of him, Canning won’t be able to nibble around the edges against Yelich. He’ll have to attack the strike zone, and that slider from the right-handed Canning breaks directly into Yelich’s power zone from the left side.

The Minnesota Twins are trading around -120 on Thursday, and that’s a number we can hit as I price the Twins closer to -145 favorites against the Miami Marlins. Connor Prielipp is a swing-and-miss left-hander who has shown strikeout stuff throughout his time in the minors, and that has continued through his first four major league starts, where he’s posted a 9.95 K/9. The Marlins have improved offensively, but they still lack the type of power bats that can consistently punish mistakes over the heart of the plate. Instead, Miami often needs to string together multiple hits to generate runs, and that becomes a major problem against a lefty capable of piling up strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Twins should be able to roll out a lineup with only one left-handed bat—Matt Wallner—against left-hander Braxton Garrett, giving Minnesota a favorable platoon setup throughout most of the order.

Rafael Devers may not be the same power hitter he once was with the Boston Red Sox, but he’s heating up lately with three home runs over his last seven games. He’s also seeing the ball extremely well in this series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, recording five hits and two walks, which is a strong sign that he’s comfortable at the plate in this ballpark. At +425, I’m hitting the button, as I price Devers closer to +325 to hit a home run on Thursday. Emmet Sheehan has allowed six home runs this season, and all six have come against left-handed hitters. Devers will also have the wind blowing out to his pull side at 8 mph, which only adds to the appeal of this matchup.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.