MLB Picks

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Pete Alonso ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the game.. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The #10 ballpark in MLB for boosting offensive stats to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.. This contest is forecasted to have the 12th-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Pete Alonso will hold the platoon advantage over Steven Matz today.

When estimating his home run ability, Zach Neto ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Zach Neto is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height in the league.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which often leads to more offense.. There has been a significant improvement in Zach Neto's launch angle from last season's 17.7° to 22.4° this year.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 13th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Batting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Oneil Cruz will have an edge in today's game.. Extreme groundball bats like Oneil Cruz usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jameson Taillon.. Oneil Cruz will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Chris Sale may get most of the attention atop Atlanta’s rotation, but Bryce Elder has been every bit as dominant in his own right, leaning on a deep five-pitch mix to post a 1.97 ERA while ranking in the 90th percentile in Barrel% at Baseball Savant. Elder is set to take on a Boston Red Sox offense that has been virtually non-existent in 2026, sitting 29th in runs per game (3.7) and sporting a .696 OPS on the year. On the other hand, Atlanta’s lineup has swung back to form this season, ranking third in wOBA (.334), wRC+ (112), and trailing only the New York Yankees in team home runs. Take the Braves to make it consecutive wins in Beantown, and I’d play this up to -125.

The projections love the Reds to go deep today, and Nathaniel Lowe at +500 or better is the bat I want from this visiting lineup. He’ll likely see an opener before facing bulk reliever Jonah Tong, who allowed eight home runs in 38 Triple-A innings this year while posting a 5.68 ERA. It sets up as a favorable matchup for Cincinnati hitters, who have already gotten a look at this New York bullpen. Lowe carries a fair price around +500. Over the last 14 days, he leads the team in bat speed at 75.1 mph while also posting a 25% HR/FB rate and a .645 slugging percentage. He has been even hotter over the last week and gets the lefty-righty edge with 9-mph winds blowing out to right field. He sat yesterday against a lefty, but now gets a right-handed opener followed by a right-handed bulk arm with home-run issues. The Mets also appear to have only one available left-hander in the bullpen today.

Kansas City does not strikeout much against righties, but Cole’s current profile is less about pure strikeouts and more about limiting damage. That directly attacks Kansas City’s issue: the Royals have a team barrel rate of just 8%. This is an angle we've hit on throughout the series. The Royals' path to scoring is stringing together multiple hits, and the quality of pitchers that New York has thrown out haven't allowed that to happen. This isn’t a huge edge, though, and I’d play to -130.

In addition to the White Sox ranking fifth in wOBA against left-handed starters this season and second in overall xwOBA while averaging 4.9 runs per game in May, the Twins have also won seven of their past nine games with a solid .325 wOBA and an average of 4.4 runs per game. So, with both teams also trending to the Over, I’m anticipating both clubs chipping in more than enough to send this total Over the number.

I'm taking another swing with Jake Burger today in an indoor setting while he’s swinging one of the hotter bats in baseball and draws a favorable matchup. Burger is one of only five MLB hitters currently ranked inside the Top 15 in both slugging and BlastContact% over the last two weeks. He has been raking with four home runs over his last 12 games and owns the eighth-best slugging percentage in baseball during that stretch. He’ll get a crack at Houston starter Mike Burrows, who ranks in the bottom third among MLB starters in HR/FB rate while carrying a low 36% groundball rate. He is producing a lot of fly balls, and those fly balls are getting hit hard. He also isn’t missing bats and has one of the weaker home-run-suppressing bullpens behind him, with one of the highest HR/9 rates in baseball. The fair price on this Burger bomb sits around +480, per the projections at Covers.

With only one side likely to contribute to the total, it's hard to count on too many runs being scored. Ohtani (21.6% K-BB%) should dominate a soft-hitting Rockies lineup (67 wRC+ in the last 20 days), and it's unlikely he's in the lineup himself after getting plunked in the hand on Tuesday.

Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.