MLB Picks

Skenes is dominating opponents behind a filthy arsenal and impeccable control. His 1.26 BB/9 and .183 BABIP lead the majors, and his 1.85 xERA is 0.62 runs better than any other qualified pitcher. He should rack up plenty of punchouts against a Philly lineup with the fifth-highest chase rate over the past two weeks, swinging at 37.1% of pitches outside the zone, as he and Wheeler keep the scoring limited.

The New York Mets have boosted their scoring by 0.7 runs a game in the last two weeks (from 3.7 to 4.4) and have scored five or more three times in the last five games. The New York Yankees are the mirror image. They still lead the AL in scoring but have managed three runs or fewer in seven of the last 10. And the Bronx Bombers’ pitching hasn’t been good enough to gut out those low-scoring games.

Erick Fedde has only faced one team that ranks Top-10 in OBP, and he lasted just 14 outs while conceding three earned runs. The Cubs rank Top-10 in almost every offensive category. Colin Rea sits in the 15th percentile in xERA and has really struggled against lefties. Not ideal going up against powerful left-handed hitters like Colson Montgomery and Munetaka Murakami.

After the L.A. Dodgers exploded for 15 runs yesterday against the cross-city Angels, I’m buying into a key piece of that offense tonight. Mookie Betts served up a homer and a single in last night’s rout, and that’s the surest sign yet that his oblique strain is behind him.

It was Betts’ second dinger of the week, and I like these odds for 2+ bases here, especially with Angels starter Grayson Rodriguez just returning from the 15-day IL. Though Betts has struggled to post elite numbers this year, there’s been no dip in his exit velocity and he’s done his best work against righties on the road. Look for that trend to continue tonight.

Seattle is swing-happy, ranking third-worst in whiff rate (27.7%). That plays directly into the hands of San Diego's relievers, who rank second in K/9 innings (10.91) this month. The Mariners' bullpen shouldn't be taxed too heavily behind Kirby, but this a strong relief corps. Seattle relievers are eighth by ERA in May (2.38).

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.