James Wood is one of my favorite home run targets on Monday's slate. Aaron Nola has been getting crushed by left handed hitters, allowing elite expected numbers while giving up plenty of hard contact, barrels, and elevated contact over his recent sample. That sets up perfectly for Wood, who owns the highest Batters-Box matchup rating of the day and matches up well against the majority of Nola's arsenal. He's also swinging one of the hottest bats on the Nationals, consistently producing hard contact against right handed pitching. With both the matchup and recent form working in his favor, Wood is worth backing to leave the yard.

I like this spot for the New York Yankees, and I’m playing their run line down to -105.

Michael McGreevy is a ground-ball-reliant pitcher, but when he does not get grounders, things get ugly quickly. That is a problem against New York. The Yankees have been a low-groundball offense all season, and over the last 30 days, that rate is even lower at 39.9%, third-lowest in baseball. That should let McGreevy’s bottom-12% barrel rate and bottom-20% hard-hit rate show up early, giving New York a real path to a crooked number.

Somehow, some way, the Pirates have scored the second-most runs in baseball in 2026. And even with Oneil Cruz and Ryan O'Hearn sidelined, I like the offense to do enough damage against Brandon Sproat to help run up the score. Bubba Chandler has had his moments, but he's routinely allowing 3-5 runs in a start. He's got heat on the fastball, and that's about it. The Brewers can make him pay. With two shaky starters on the bump, I'll go with the Over.

The Under 8.5 fits behind Webb’s homer suppression, Texas’ recent offensive struggles, and a Giants bullpen that has not allowed a homer over its last 25.1 frames. The Rangers are better at home, but San Francisco’s late-game run prevention gives this matchup a stronger path to stay contained overall tonight.

This line is artificially short because the Dodgers are off a sweep (to the historically hot Red Sox - who cares?) and the Cubs demolish left-handed pitching. Justin Wrobleski's reverse splits (.213/.252/.322 against right-handed hitters) should offset that concern against a lineup projected to feature at least seven righties.

Kazuma Okamoto is showing signs of breaking out of his post-All-Star slump and draws a favorable matchup against Cristian Javier's vulnerable four-seam fastball, making over 1.5 total bases a strong play at plus money.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best park in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in MLB, which tends to lead to better offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the hottest weather of the day at 94°.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the weakest out of every team in action today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Willi Castro will hold that advantage today.

Michael King gives San Diego a reliable presence atop the rotation, and the Padres continue to back him with one of baseball’s strongest bullpens. Arizona’s recent offensive dip gives San Diego a favorable matchup, and the Padres should create enough timely offense to edge another close game on the road tonight.

Swanson has been one of the worst hitters in baseball this season with a .177 batting average, while ranking in the second percentile in xBA. Additionally, his hitting profile does not match up well at all against Cease, who has elite swing-and-miss stuff. 

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.