MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Shea Langeliers is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Truist Park projects as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Shea Langeliers will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Sale in today's game... and even better, Sale has a huge platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brent Rooker in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Brent Rooker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Truist Park projects as the #9 venue in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Given Chris Sale's huge platoon split, Brent Rooker will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.

Taylor Ward brings legit 36-HR power to the leadoff spot for the Baltimore Orioles, giving him a strong chance at five plate appearances this afternoon. He faces Nathan Eovaldi, a familiar matchup with 20 career at-bats against him. Eovaldi allowed two home runs in his first start and projects to go over his 2.5 earned runs prop, according to THE BAT, which makes Ward’s HR price around +425. Ward hasn’t gone deep yet, but he’s coming off a four-hit game, carrying a 49% fly-ball rate, and gets ideal conditions at Oriole Park at Camden Yards with 80-degree weather and wind blowing out to center.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 97th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Wyatt Langford is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The weather forecast predicts temperatures in this game to reach the highest level on the slate at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Wyatt Langford will have an edge today.. The Baltimore Orioles infield defense projects as the worst among every team today.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 15th-best home run batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the best park in the majors for LHB home runs.. The weather report projects the 4th-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.224) implies that Oneil Cruz has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his .198 actual batting average.. Oneil Cruz's 17.3% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) grades out in the 97th percentile since the start of last season.

Great American Ball Park ranks as the #1 stadium in MLB for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The weather report projects the 4th-best hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Batting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Henry Davis will have an advantage today.. Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. In terms of his batting average, Henry Davis has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .167 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .221.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 4th-best home run hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in the league.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Cavalli throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have the upper hand in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best batter in Major League Baseball when assessing his BABIP ability.. James Wood is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. James Wood has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .252 figure is a good deal lower than his .279 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

I’m only making this a half-unit wager. Kyle Freeland is a line-drive contact pitcher who gets hit hard by righties, and the best line drive right-handed power hitter on the Jays is Vladdy, who's certainly primed to hit his first homer of the season.

When Kevin Gausman is locating his split-finger fastball, he's one of the most unhittable pitchers in all of baseball. This was the case last week when he rang up 11 A’s batters on Opening Night, and I’m expecting a similar outcome this afternoon against the Colorado Rockies. 

Alcantara allowed just one unearned run on four hits while striking out five in a matchup against the Rockies, and today he gets to face one of the more free-swinging teams in baseball in the White Sox. Chicago has the second-highest strikeout rate at 35.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 5° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Miguel Vargas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.. Juan Soto's 17.6% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) grades out in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

Alec Burleson's batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 9th-lowest average fence height in MLB.. Alec Burleson will hold the platoon advantage against Freddy Peralta in today's matchup.. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

It is anticipated that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (CB Bucknor) behind the plate in today's game.. Projected catcher Hunter Feduccia profiles as a good pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks American Family Field as the best venue in the league for strikeouts.. Drew Rasmussen's 95.2-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 81st percentile among all starters.. Drew Rasmussen's 2482-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 90th percentile among all SPs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Junior Caminero is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. American Family Field grades out as the #8 field in baseball for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all stadiums, American Family Field's CF fences are the 7th-shallowest.. American Family Field has the 6th-shortest fences among all major league stadiums.

The Astros have a lineup stacked with righties and boast an incredible .945 OPS against southpaws like Garrett Crochet who starts for Boston today. Houston's projected lineup today has batted .405 with a .595 slugging percentage in 42 career at bats against Crochet. That said, Boston's lineup will be even more productive against Mike Burrows who had a 4.33 xERA in 2025 and was rocked in his season debut last week. The Red Sox are batting just .163 over their last three games. However, they rank third in the majors in exit velocity and eighth in barrel rate, suggesting positive regression.

The Red Sox are on a four-game skid but their last victory came in their season opener with ace Garrett Crochet (2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 2025) on the mound. Last year's AL Cy Young runner-up threw six shutout innings in that game. The Astros respond with Mike Burrows who surrendered nine hits and five runs in 5 2/3 frames last Friday. The righty had a 4.33 xERA in 19 starts last year while sitting in the 15th percentile in barrel rate. Boston's top three relievers Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock, and Justin Slaten haven't pitched since Saturday. They'll be well-rested and will be able to relieve Crochet and finish this game.  

With the wind blowing in at 19 mph and temperatures in the low 40s at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, we’re seeing this game lined at a total of 6 runs—and I think that directly impacts how we should evaluate the moneyline. This sets up as a low-scoring, coin-flip type of game, yet we’re getting the Angels at +143. It’s not just the weather neutralizing the Cubs’ power—the matchup also plays a role. Seiya Suzuki, one of their key right-handed power bats, is out with an injury, and Pete Crow-Armstrong moves down in the lineup with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi on the mound for the Angels. I price the Angels closer to +110 in this spot, so there’s clear value at the current number. Matt Boyd simply shouldn’t be a -165 favorite here—this price feels inflated due to the popularity of the Cubs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yusei Kikuchi to throw 98 pitches in today's outing (most of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. David Rackley grades out as a Pitchers Umpire and is expected to be behind the plate in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Wrigley Field as the 9th-worst park in Major League Baseball for batting average.. The 5th-deepest right field fences among all parks are found in Wrigley Field.. The league's 7th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Wrigley Field.

Tigers ace Tarik Skubal has surrendered three earned runs or fewer in 26 of 32 starts since the beginning of last year, so I'm anticipating the lefty doing the heavy lifting to keep this total Under the number this afternoon.

Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen’s ERA and xFIP climbed in each of the past three seasons ahead of him allowing four runs on five hits and a pair of walks through four frames on Opening Day, so I’m anticipating a long season ahead for the veteran righty. It’s just the opposite for Detroit ace Tarik Skubal, with the star southpaw ranking second among qualified starters in ERA and xFIP since the beginning of the 2024 campaign. The Arizona offense is also off to a ho-hum start with a 23rd-ranked xwOBA.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Heliot Ramos ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The shallowest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Petco Park.. On average, the fence height at Petco Park is the 5th-shortest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Rafael Devers will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's matchup.

The pitching matchup between Schlittler and George Kirby is nothing short of excellent. 

Schlittler impressed as a rookie and seems poised for a big sophomore campaign, holding a struggling Giants offense to just one baserunner in his season opening start.

While more can be expected from the Mariners, it shouldn’t be a field day for their offense.

Meanwhile, Kirby pitched six innings of one-run ball against the Guardians in his 2026 debut. That’s par for the course – he has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 home games.

The Mariners are hitting .205 to start the year but don’t let that fool you: there is a good offense in there. They rank 15th in wOBA, 11th in line drive percentage, 10th in wRC+, and 9th in walk rate. There are some good signs beneath the surface.

The weather in Kansas City might end up being the biggest obstacle for this bet, as it’s expected to be rainy throughout the night, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the game gets postponed. That said, there’s no way I’m passing up a -113 price on Joe Ryan against the Royals—even with the risk of a void. I make the Twins closer to -147 favorites in this spot. Ryan has absolutely dominated the Royals in his career, which gives Minnesota a clear edge on the mound. Kansas City is starting left-hander Noah Cameron, and one thing that stands out is Royce Lewis hitting out of the eight spot in the Twins lineup. As a right-handed bat, he can help turn the lineup over and create additional pressure on Cameron by setting the table for the top of the order. With the Royals also missing pieces at the back end of their bullpen, including Carlos Estévez, I’ll back the Twins on the moneyline.

These teams have combined for a 7-1 record to the Under to start the season. Both lineups have struggled, ranking 23rd and 28th in OPS. Joe Ryan has consistently handled Royals hitters, holding them to a .582 OPS over 110 combined at-bats. On the other side, Noah Cameron faces a Twins lineup posting a brutal .458 OPS vs lefties and dominated them last year with a 0.73 ERA in 12.1 innings of work.

Yamamoto is coming off a year where he ranked in the 89th percentile in strikeout rate, and there’s no reason to think he won’t keep that up against the Guardians, who enter this game with the third-highest K-rate in baseball at 29.5%.

When estimating his home run ability, Kyle Manzardo ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Dodger Stadium grades out as the #2 venue in MLB for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Dodger Stadium's centerfield dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.. Among all major league stadiums, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.