MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds as the 19th-best batter in Major League Baseball when estimating his BABIP talent.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.. Among all major league parks, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 11.7-mph in this contest, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.

Rafaela has touched home plate and recorded at least a hit in five consecutive games (14 total HRR). He sports a team-best 25 doubles and is on pace for career-best slashes. He also has an XBH and an RBI in three of his last five as he and the Sox look for a franchise record-tying 15th straight win.

Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Batters such as Salvador Perez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Landen Roupp who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Salvador Perez will hold that advantage in today's game.. In the past 7 days, Salvador Perez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93-mph over the course of the season to 105-mph lately.

The 6th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors are found in American Family Field.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height in the majors.. Despite posting a .262 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcus Semien has had some very poor luck given the .055 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 stadium in baseball for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in the majors, which often leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level on the schedule today at 91°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Gabriel Hughes throws from, Daylen Lile will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 80th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. In MLB, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest fences in the league — generally good for homers.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast predicts the 2nd-hottest temperature on the slate at 85°.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest infield defense is that of the the Seattle Mariners.

Carlos Cortes is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 6th-best ballpark in the league for run-scoring.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Carlos Cortes will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Merrill Kelly today.. The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Carlos Cortes has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

When assessing his home run talent, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In MLB, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. The weather forecast forecasts temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 83°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Jo Adell will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jo Adell's true offensive skill to be a .334, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .038 disparity between that figure and his actual .296 wOBA.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Byron Buxton ranks as the 8th-best batter in the league.. Byron Buxton is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Progressive Field ranks as the #10 ballpark in the league for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Freddie Freeman is projected as the 16th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Freddie Freeman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 8th-best venue in the league for run-scoring.. Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Freddie Freeman will have the upper hand today.. Freddie Freeman will probably have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Philadelphia Phillies has just 1 same-handed RP.

I’m backing the Pittsburgh Pirates because this price is too long for a game my projection makes close to a coin flip. I’d play it to +110. Bubba Chandler’s command is uncomfortable, but his top-30 percentile barrel rate allowed should matter against a homer-dependent New York Yankees lineup. The gap is not wide enough to justify this moneyline. I have faded Will Warren plenty this season. He is not a bad pitcher, but the market keeps overvaluing him. His xERA sits near 5, and his below-average barrel profile meets a Pirates lineup with the eighth-highest barrel rate in baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. George Springer is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. George Springer hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense profiles as the weakest among all the teams in action today.. George Springer will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Matt Olson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Truist Park's centerfield dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which often leads to better offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 3rd-hottest weather of all games on the slate today at 84°.

It is scheduled that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Ryan Wills) calling pitches in this game.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.. Due to his reverse platoon split, Cal Quantrill will be at an advantage facing 7 hitters in the projected lineup who hit from the other side in today's game.. Cal Quantrill will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his metrics across the board.

When estimating his batting average skill, Jeremy Pena is projected as the 18th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.. Jeremy Pena pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Jeremy Pena will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.. In the past two weeks, Jeremy Pena's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.8-mph over the course of the season to 98.8-mph of late.

Spencer Torkelson is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all major league parks, the 7th-highest fences are at Wrigley Field.. This game is expected to have the 2nd-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hurlers.. Colin Rea will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Spencer Torkelson in today's matchup.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.