MLB Picks

Target Field grades out as the #7 field in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Royce Lewis will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. The standard deviation of Royce Lewis's launch angle has been very consistent in recent games (42.1° in the last two weeks' worth of games), which is a proxy for reliable bat control and seeing the ball well.. Despite posting a .255 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Royce Lewis has had some very poor luck given the .053 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .308.

Taillon is flirting with a 4.0 ERA despite a .214 BABIP, and 85.5 LOB%. He has benefited from great batted ball luck, stranded baserunners at an unsustainably high rate, and is still giving up plenty of runs.

Martin is a very good pitcher but he has also gotten lucky. His xERA is 3.91, more than two full runs higher than his actual ERA of 1.62.

Regression could come for both against strong offenses.

The Astros have hit their Team Total Under in 13 of the last 15 games (+10.35 units, 55% ROI), and a date with Jacob deGrom is only going to highlight their woes at the plate. The Rangers aren't exactly firing on all cylinders either. They are hitting only .216 in May and own the fifth-highest ground ball rate, leading to a lot of easy outs.

The best way to score runs in bulk is with the longball but hitting homers will be difficult for both teams in this matchup. Elder has done a fantastic job of suppressing power, allowing 0.49 homers per nine innings while posting a remarkably strong 3.5% barrel rate. Tolle has conceded 0.72 homers per nine innings and ranks second among today's projected starting pitchers in soft contact rate.

I like Mets arm Huascar Brazoban. He looks to be the opener in what is expected to be a bullpen game for the Mets and should have some success. His hard-hit rate and barrel rate sit in the top 3% of baseball, which should help him avoid any early crooked numbers from the Yankees.

I eventually expect the Yankees to open the scoring up against a relatively taxed bullpen; there is still plenty of reason to think this looks a lot like last night rather than some offensive showcase. I projected this total at 8 and would play it to there.

Over the past month, San Diego relievers lead the majors in xERA while ranking second in xFIP and GB%. The Mariners' lineup performs better outside of T-Mobile Park, posting a .347 wOBA on the road vs. just .320 at home the past month. The Under is 7-2 in San Diego’s last nine and 8-2 in Seattle’s last 10, and that trend will continue.

 

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Matt Chapman ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Matt Chapman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. Sutter Health Park has the 3rd-lowest fences in the league.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of the day at 87°.

Zack Wheeler against Paul Skenes is the best pitching duel on the entire slate. Pittsburgh is the home favorite at -127, but Wheeler is one of the premier arms in the National League, and the Phillies carry more offensive firepower. Getting plus money on a Wheeler start against any opponent is worth taking seriously.

Jack Flaherty at home against Kevin Gausman is a quality pitching matchup, but Detroit gets the nod. Both clubs are sitting right around .500, and neither has been dominant recently, but the Tigers' bullpen has been sharper over the last two weeks. Home field at better than even money is a good value.

If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.

Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.