MLB Picks

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Griffin Jax throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage in today's game.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among all the teams on the slate today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Wilyer Abreu will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

If the New York Yankees are going to make a charge in the AL East, there's no better time than now against the best team in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers. I’m playing them down to -110. Roki Sasaki’s biggest flaw runs into New York’s best offensive path. Sasaki has allowed a 12.8% barrel rate and 44.9% hard-hit rate, and his four-seamer has been hit for a .606 SLG. These are all things the Yankees excel at, arriving at this game with the highest barrel rate in baseball, the third-highest hard-hit rate, and several strong hitters against the heater.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 15th-best batter in the majors.. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Batting from the opposite that Eduardo Rivera throws from, Junior Caminero will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (39.4% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.

When assessing his home run skill, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage against Gavin Williams in today's matchup.. Brandon Lowe may have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians has just 1 same-handed RP.. Brandon Lowe pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.2% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Cal Quantrill ranks in the 30th percentile in xERA, 13th percentile in GB%, and fourth in K%.

The Atlanta Braves sit 4th in FB% and 7th in hard hit rate against righties, profiling perfectly to exploit Quantrill’s red flags.

Chris Sale ranks in the 92nd percentile in Pitcher Run Value and has allowed eight runs over eight home starts. 

Bet to -110.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 77th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.. Extreme flyball hitters like Miguel Vargas tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Spencer Miles.. The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team on the slate today.

As it relates to his batting average skill, Otto Lopez is projected as the 8th-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Extreme flyball hitters like Otto Lopez tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Henderson.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 12.4-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

This matchup is forecasted to have the 12th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Salvador Perez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Taylor Ward ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Taylor Ward is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Among every team today, the 5th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros.

Hunter Goodman projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hunter Goodman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-hottest weather of the day at 92°.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Hunter Goodman will hold that advantage today.

Matt Vierling is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.6-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Reid Detmers throws from, Matt Vierling will have an edge in today's game.. Out of all the teams playing today, the weakest infield defense belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Curtis Mead ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Curtis Mead is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is expected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 92°.. Hitting from the opposite that Gage Jump throws from, Curtis Mead will have the upper hand in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Kepler in the 9th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Max Kepler is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.. The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this game -5° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.. Max Kepler pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 79th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

Bryce Miller is in electric form for the Seattle Mariners. He has posted a sparkling 2.73 SIERA while striking out 32.2% of opposing batters over the last month.

The San Francisco Giants rank 25th in wOBA vs. righties at home. Those struggles are noteworthy heading into another pitcher-friendly park at T-Mobile.

The Seattle Mariners shouldn't need to give Miller much support to win.

Bet to -165.

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.