Chicago @ New York picks

Imanaga comes into this game riding his luck. His expected ERA has soared over four while his actual ERA remains around 2. Elements are pointing to his results not being sustainable, too, like an expected slugging percentage nearly .500 or a ground ball rate that sits in the bottom 2% of all qualified starting pitchers. Unless you've been living under a rock, you know the Yankees DNA: A walk and a knock. Like they finished last season (1.47 per game), the Yankees will go into the All-Star break leading the majors in homers at 1.58 per game. In addition to that, they lead the majors in barrel rate. Imanaga is due for some regression, and this is a good place to expect that to occur. On the other side, Will Warren will take the mound, and we need a solid outing from him. His past two starts have been a bit bumpy, but they've also been filled with poor luck. I suspect that shifts today.

The Yankees host the Cubs to kick off Sunday’s MLB slate. Now is the time to sell high on left-hander Shota Imanaga, who takes the mound for Chicago. Despite his surface-level success in 2025, Imanaga’s underlying metrics suggest that regression is quickly looming. He ranks in the 36th percentile in expected ERA (xERA), 19th percentile in average exit velocity, and 22nd percentile in barrel rate. New York’s Paul Goldschmidt is likely to take advantage of this expected regression. Through seven plate appearances against Imanaga, Goldschmidt boasts a 1.000 slugging percentage and one home run.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 7th-best batter in the game.. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage against Will Warren in today's matchup... and moreover, Warren has a large platoon split.. Kyle Tucker will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees only has 1 same-handed RP.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 19th-best hitter in the game.. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Batters such as Seiya Suzuki with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Will Warren who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. The New York Yankees outfield defense projects as the weakest out of every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Michael Busch is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Michael Busch will hold the platoon advantage against Will Warren in today's matchup... and moreover, Warren has a large platoon split.. Michael Busch is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees has just 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jasson Dominguez in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Jasson Dominguez will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Grading out in the 93rd percentile, Jasson Dominguez has notched a .370 BABIP this year.

When estimating his home run skill, Trent Grisham ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Trent Grisham will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. In terms of power, Trent Grisham finds himself in the 83rd percentile, having averaged 28.5 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. The New York Yankees outfield defense projects as the weakest out of every team playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Giancarlo Stanton projects as the 5th-best home run hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Giancarlo Stanton is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Giancarlo Stanton will hold the platoon advantage over Shota Imanaga today.. Giancarlo Stanton will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will get to bat from his good side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Will Warren) in this game.. The New York Yankees outfield defense projects as the weakest out of every team playing today.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Batting from the opposite that Shota Imanaga throws from, Aaron Judge will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Aaron Judge will hold that advantage in today's matchup.