Pittsburgh @ Los Angeles picks

Pittsburgh Pirates starter Mitch Keller probably saw this road date with the Los Angeles Dodgers on the calendar and immediately dreaded it. One L.A. bat who has consistently given him trouble is Freddie Freeman. The star first baseman is 8-for-15 with a .533/.588/.800 slash line against Keller in their respective careers, and only one of those 15 at-bats has resulted in a punchout. Keller’s 4.18 ERA and 3.92 FIP don’t look too bad on the surface, but his 5.77 xERA is worrisome. The former second round pick doesn’t make batters miss (16.1% K rate, 11th percentile whiff rate) and has been hit around (fifth percentile xBA). With a fortuitous matchup and Freeman at the top of his game, his -105 odds of recording multiple total bases on Saturday are too good to pass up as a best bet.