Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 11, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.
LAA
@
CLE
Mon, May 11 • 6:10 PM ET
NYY
@
BAL
Mon, May 11 • 6:35 PM ET
TB
@
TOR
Mon, May 11 • 7:07 PM ET
Drew Rasmussen o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-114)
Drew Rasmussen has been consistently piling up strikeouts lately, cashing the Over in three consecutive starts. He struck out five Blue Jays hitters in his last outing against Toronto and appears to have found a rhythm on the mound. Rasmussen’s electric stuff gives hitters problems, and with this total sitting at only 4.5, there’s solid value here again.
TB (+120)
The Rays always give the Blue Jays fits, and Tampa has been especially strong this season. Even with Kevin Gausman on the mound, I'm willing to take Drew Rasmussen and the visitors at plus money. Outside of their 20-hit, 14-run onslaught against the Angels on Saturday, Toronto's bats have lain fairly dormant of late, and the Jays are traveling from Anaheim to Toronto. If you're not willing to take the risk, grab the Under 7.5, as neither offense can be counted on in this game.
AZ
@
TEX
Mon, May 11 • 8:05 PM ET
Corbin Carroll o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Corbin Carroll has historically hit Nathan Eovaldi well, going 5-for-13 against him with a double, triple, and homer. The Diamondbacks star is showing signs of heating up after homering Thursday and doubling Friday. Eovaldi has already surrendered 10 home runs this season, and Carroll’s speed plus extra-base upside makes this prop attractive tonight.
Nathan Eovaldi o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+115)
Nathan Eovaldi is starting to find his groove on the mound again. The veteran right-hander has cashed the Over in strikeouts in back-to-back starts, piling up 15 Ks during that span, including eight against the Yankees. Arizona has been striking out frequently lately, and with Eovaldi allowing just one earned run across his last two outings, expect another sharp performance.
SEA
@
HOU
Mon, May 11 • 8:10 PM ET
SEA (-140)
George Kirby has been surgical this season, allowing just a 2.08 BB/9, and that’s not a good matchup for the Houston Astros lineup. Kirby isn’t going to hand out free passes and then leave pitches over the heart of the plate for aggressive, mistake-hitting batters like Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to launch into the seats. Instead, Kirby is going to force Houston to string together multiple hits, and that’s a major issue for an Astros lineup that lacks depth and has struggled to consistently turn the lineup over. The Seattle Mariners are trading around -140 against Houston, but I think they should be closer to -165 favorites.
u8.5 (-105)
It takes a while to wash the Coors Field stink off your expectations, otherwise Peter Lambert would be getting more respect. The Astros hurler is missing barrels and limiting damage, and while his expected ERA is higher than his actual ERA, it's not by such a margin to expect the chickens to immediately come home to roost. Meanwhile, George Kirby looks like the ace from before 2025, also suppressing barrels and gobsmacking opponents. Barring a pair of bullpen meltdowns, I see this easily hitting the Under.
SF
@
LAD
Mon, May 11 • 10:10 PM ET
MIL
@
STL
Tue, Jul 7 • 2:15 PM ET
u8.0 (-120)
If Brandon Sproat can hold his own early, the Brewers will turn to an excellent bullpen that ranks fifth in xFIP and tied for third in homers allowed per nine innings.
Colder weather and Andre Pallante’s high ground-ball rate (50%) should allow the Cardinals to limit the long ball. That’ll make it difficult to score runs in bulk, helping keep this game Under the total.
MIL (-110)
Brandon Sproat’s xFIP and SIERA are two full runs less than his ERA, suggesting he hasn’t pitched as poorly as it appears on the surface.
Andre Pallante has posted some concerning numbers against lefties (47.2% hard-hit rate, 13.2% barrel rate), and the Brewers have plenty of good ones in their lineup. This mismatch favors the visitors, and we'll take the Brewers on the ML.
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