MLB Picks

KC starter Seth Lugo has allowed one earned run in three of his last four starts, and he's never lost to the Rays, going 3-0 in his career, with a 1.86 ERA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds as the 17th-best hitter in MLB when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 4th-best park in the game for lefty base hits.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to more offense.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-best for hitting of all games today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Shea Langeliers as the game's 16th-best home run batter.. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the best of the day for hitters.. Bats such as Shea Langeliers with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Landen Roupp who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the San Francisco Giants.

Tatsuya Imai has posted an xERA of 3.61 or lower in three of his past four starts while striking batters out at an increased rate. He has turned a corner.

The Houston Astros should be able to provide him run support against Troy Melton, whose indicators (4.74 xFIP, 4.84 SIERA) suggest his 2.56 ERA is very unsustainable.

Back Houston to -115.

Andres Chaparro is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Dingers are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and Nationals Park has the 6th-shallowest among all stadiums.. This matchup is expected to have the 14th-most suitable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.1-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for batters.. Andres Chaparro will have the handedness advantage over Cristopher Sanchez today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.. The #5 field in the league for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. Hitting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have an advantage today.. Brandon Nimmo has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Toronto Blue Jays only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The #4 venue in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The shallowest left field fences in the majors are found in Fenway Park.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.

Bo Bichette is not the punching bag he was last month. Over the last two weeks, he has been a Top-5 hitter in wRC+, slugging, and wOBA. He hit his 10th homer of the season last night and owns a 1.135 OPS over his last four series with eight multi-hit games in 12 contests. The winds are blowing out to center field at 15 mph tonight, and this series has been nothing but runs through three games in two days. Bichette lost Juan Soto, but Francisco Lindor is back and provides more punch to the lineup. The former Jay also gets a great matchup against left-hander Matthew Boyd, who is returning from injury, was pitching to a 6.00 ERA before going down, threw just 58 pitches in his last rehab start, and is backed by a bullpen that could be down four arms after yesterday's doubleheader. Bichette has seen the lefty five times and taken him deep once. I am all-in on runs in this game, and this is my favorite home run prop on the home side. I'd play it down to +425.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the majors.. Ketel Marte is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.. Ketel Marte has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 98.1-mph over the last 7 days.

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.