Toronto @ Atlanta Picks & Props

Hitting from the same side that Kevin Gausman throws from, Marcell Ozuna will have a tough challenge today. Marcell Ozuna pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Marcell Ozuna has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 16.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past 7 days. Despite posting a .400 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has been very fortunate given the .052 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .348.

Typically, hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Max Fried. Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today. Over the past 14 days, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 5.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.5%. Despite posting a .406 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has experienced some positive variance given the .015 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .391.

Truist Park ranks as the #5 field in the majors for LHB base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today. Nathan Lukes hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Atlanta Braves infield defense projects as the 8th-worst among all the teams today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Whit Merrifield in the 84th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Whit Merrifield has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Truist Park ranks as the #5 ballpark in the game for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Horwitz in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Spencer Horwitz is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Truist Park ranks as the #5 field in the majors for LHB base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. Humid weather has a small but significant connection with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate at 75%.

Jarred Kelenic's BABIP skill is projected in the 78th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Truist Park ranks as the #5 field in the majors for LHB base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today. Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Jarred Kelenic will have an edge in today's matchup.

Michael Harris II's batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Michael Harris II is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Truist Park ranks as the #5 field in the majors for LHB base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today.

Daulton Varsho is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today. Truist Park ranks as the #5 field in the majors for LHB base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park has the 5th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). George Springer is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. Truist Park ranks as the #5 ballpark in the game for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Jorge Soler is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Truist Park ranks as the #5 ballpark in the game for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Wagner in the 87th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Truist Park ranks as the #5 field in the majors for LHB base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today. Will Wagner hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

Truist Park ranks as the #5 ballpark in the game for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Orlando Arcia will hold that advantage today. In the last week's worth of games, Orlando Arcia's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.4% up to 25%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Davis Schneider in the 77th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Truist Park ranks as the #5 ballpark in the game for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today. Batting from the opposite that Max Fried throws from, Davis Schneider will have an edge today.

Truist Park ranks as the #5 ballpark in the game for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Travis d'Arnaud will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Travis d'Arnaud has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 105.4-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal mark of 95.8-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 86th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. Truist Park ranks as the #5 ballpark in the game for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Matt Olson is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game. Truist Park ranks as the #5 field in the majors for LHB base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Truist Park has the 5th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Ernie Clement is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Truist Park ranks as the #5 ballpark in the game for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gio Urshela in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Truist Park ranks as the #5 ballpark in the game for RHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 4th-best hitting conditions of all games today. Gio Urshela will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Truist Park has the 5th-shallowest centerfield dimensions in the majors. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the majors, which tends to lead to more offense. Brian Serven will hold the platoon advantage over Max Fried in today's game. The Atlanta Braves infield defense projects as the 4th-worst among all the teams today. Brian Serven's speed has gotten better this season. His 25.14 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.96 ft/sec now.