Detroit @ San Diego Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 5th-worst field in MLB for righty BABIP. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. Casey Mize will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Manny Machado in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal angle of 12°, Manny Machado has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-3.3°) in the last two weeks' worth of games. From last season to this one, Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 17.7% to 11.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 5th-worst field in MLB for righty BABIP. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. Casey Mize will have the handedness advantage over Fernando Tatis Jr. today.

Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today. The #5 park in baseball for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jackson Merrill's true offensive talent to be a .333, implying that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .017 difference between that mark and his actual .350 wOBA.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Parker Meadows hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Parker Meadows has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 7.4% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past week. Parker Meadows has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph to 89.8-mph in the last week's worth of games. Parker Meadows's launch angle in recent games (11.6° in the last week's worth of games) is significantly lower than his 18.2° seasonal figure.

Matt Vierling has been pinch hit for 16% of the time when starting against a lefty hurler this year. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 5th-worst field in MLB for righty BABIP. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. In today's game, Matt Vierling is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.2% rate (93rd percentile). Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Matt Vierling in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colt Keith in the 79th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Colt Keith hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Colt Keith has put up a .271 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jace Jung's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, going from 20.6% on the season to 27.3% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene as the 5th-best batter in the league when estimating his BABIP talent. Riley Greene is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Riley Greene hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Riley Greene has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 14.1% seasonal rate to 27.3% in the last 14 days.

Dillon Dingler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Dillon Dingler will hold the platoon advantage against Martin Perez today.

The #5 park in baseball for suppressing BABIP to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Petco Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to worse offense. From last season to this one, Luis Arraez's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 89.6 mph to 87.6 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Jake Cronenworth is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jake Cronenworth will have the handedness advantage against Casey Mize in today's game.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Ryan Kreidler will hold the platoon advantage over Martin Perez today. Ryan Kreidler hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Ryan Kreidler has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .161 rate is deflated compared to his .184 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Torkelson in the 75th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Spencer Torkelson will have an edge in today's matchup. In the past week's worth of games, Spencer Torkelson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.9% up to 28.6%.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jurickson Profar ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team today, the 15th-strongest infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Jurickson Profar will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Among every team today, the 15th-strongest infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Xander Bogaerts will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Jake Rogers has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (93% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Jake Rogers will have an edge in today's game. Jake Rogers has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 89.5-mph figure.

Justyn-Henry Malloy is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Justyn-Henry Malloy will have an edge in today's matchup. Justyn-Henry Malloy's 11.2% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) grades out in the 81st percentile this year.

Andy Ibanez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Martin Perez throws from, Andy Ibanez will have the upper hand today. Andy Ibanez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Andy Ibanez's launch angle this year (20.5°) is significantly higher than his 12.6° angle last season.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team today, the 15th-strongest infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Elias Diaz will hold that advantage today.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Among every team today, the 15th-strongest infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Mason McCoy will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Petco Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF fences in the majors. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Kyle Higashioka will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Kyle Higashioka's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 17.5% to 25.5%. Kyle Higashioka's 12.8% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) ranks in the 88th percentile this year.