San Diego @ New York Picks & Props

Pete Alonso projects as the 18th-best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Pete Alonso pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Sporting a .343 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Pete Alonso is positioned in the 77th percentile for offensive ability.

Citi Field projects as the #30 venue in Major League Baseball for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to worse offense. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-most suitable for pitching on the slate today. Luis Arraez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Luis Arraez's 3.5% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) grades out in the 10th percentile since the start of last season.

Harrison Bader hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Harrison Bader will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Campusano in the 76th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Luis Campusano pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the New York Mets. Luis Campusano has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .231 figure is quite a bit lower than his .246 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Luis Campusano ranks in the 85th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (19.3% rate since the start of last season).

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Manny Machado is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in Major League Baseball. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the New York Mets. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.327) suggests that Manny Machado has suffered from bad luck this year with his .296 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Jackson Merrill will hold the platoon advantage against Tylor Megill in today's game. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Merrill stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's shallowest CF fences today. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the New York Mets.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Jeff McNeil will hold the platoon advantage over Dylan Cease today. Jeff McNeil hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jeff McNeil will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Despite posting a .270 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jeff McNeil has had bad variance on his side given the .029 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .299.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the majors. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the New York Mets. Fernando Tatis Jr. has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .358 mark is a fair amount lower than his .373 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent. Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Dylan Cease throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have an advantage in today's game. Brandon Nimmo has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Brandon Nimmo will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in Major League Baseball. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the New York Mets. Jurickson Profar's quickness has improved this season. His 25.68 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.57 ft/sec now. Jurickson Profar has put up a .393 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 96th percentile.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Mark Vientos will hold that advantage today. Since the start of last season, Mark Vientos's 10.7% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 77th percentile among his peers. Since the start of last season, Mark Vientos has an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph, which ranks among the best in the game at the 95th percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Ha-seong Kim ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ha-seong Kim hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's shallowest CF fences today. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the New York Mets. In terms of his batting average, Ha-seong Kim has experienced some negative variance this year. His .222 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .272. Ha-seong Kim has shown strong plate discipline this year, placing in the 97th percentile with a 1.09 K/BB rate.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, J.D. Martinez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). J.D. Martinez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in Major League Baseball. J.D. Martinez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. J.D. Martinez has compiled a .349 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Cronenworth is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Jake Cronenworth will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tylor Megill today. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Jake Cronenworth has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Starling Marte's BABIP skill is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Starling Marte is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in Major League Baseball. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Starling Marte will hold that advantage in today's game. Starling Marte has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .334 figure is quite a bit lower than his .454 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game. Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in Major League Baseball. Francisco Lindor will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats. Utilizing Statcast data, Francisco Lindor is in the 85th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .354.

Citi Field has the shallowest centerfield dimensions in Major League Baseball. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Luis Torrens will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Luis Torrens has put up a .267 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, grading out in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Luis Torrens ranks in the 97th percentile with a 22.3° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in baseball.

David Peralta will have the handedness advantage over Tylor Megill in today's matchup. The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so David Peralta stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. David Peralta hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the New York Mets.