New York @ San Diego Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Jackson Merrill will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.403) may lead us to conclude that Jackson Merrill has had bad variance on his side this year with his .305 actual wOBA.

Fernando Tatis Jr. projects as the 8th-best batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Fernando Tatis Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon today. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez as the best hitter in baseball as it relates to his batting average talent. Luis Arraez is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Luis Arraez will hold that advantage today.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Jake Cronenworth will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.295) implies that Jake Cronenworth has been unlucky this year with his .263 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Manny Machado is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Manny Machado will have the handedness advantage over Carlos Rodon in today's game. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.

Alex Verdugo's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alex Verdugo is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Alex Verdugo will have the handedness advantage against Yu Darvish in today's matchup. Alex Verdugo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Alex Verdugo grades out in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .268.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best batter in the majors. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Juan Soto will have the handedness advantage over Yu Darvish in today's matchup. Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Juan Soto has posted a .384 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, grading out in the 96th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hitting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Ha-seong Kim will have an advantage in today's game. Ha-seong Kim hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees. Ha-seong Kim will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.259) provides evidence that Ha-seong Kim has experienced some negative variance this year with his .216 actual batting average.

Aaron Judge projects as the best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Aaron Judge is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Aaron Judge has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .276 BA is a fair amount higher than his .239 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Aaron Judge's 26.9% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power) ranks in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Campusano in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Luis Campusano will have the handedness advantage over Carlos Rodon in today's matchup. Luis Campusano hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees. Luis Campusano will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Hitting from the opposite that Yu Darvish throws from, Anthony Rizzo will have an edge in today's matchup. Anthony Rizzo is in the 89th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (47.5% rate since the start of last season). The standard deviation of Anthony Rizzo's launch angle since the start of last season (24.9°) is in the 94th percentile. A low mark like this tends to lead to a higher rate of base hits.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Volpe in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Anthony Volpe is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Anthony Volpe has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .340 rate is a fair amount higher than his .296 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. A low launch angle standard deviation tends to lead to a higher BABIP, and Anthony Volpe's 25.2° mark (93rd percentile) since the start of last season indicates a strong hitting profile. Anthony Volpe is very toolsy, ranking in the 88th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.72 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Giancarlo Stanton in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Giancarlo Stanton is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. As it relates to his batting average, Giancarlo Stanton has had positive variance on his side this year. His .246 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .232. Since the start of last season, Giancarlo Stanton's 15.8% Barrel%, a reliable metric for measuring power, places him in the 95th percentile among his peers.

In Major League Baseball, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. Austin Wells will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yu Darvish in today's matchup. As it relates to his batting average, Austin Wells has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .211 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .266. Sporting a 1.75 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Austin Wells has demonstrated strong plate discipline, grading out in the 86th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jon Berti in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Gleyber Torres ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Gleyber Torres's true offensive talent to be a .330, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .057 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .273 wOBA. Based on Statcast data, Gleyber Torres grades out in the 89th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .358. Gleyber Torres ranks in the 82nd percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (18% rate since the start of last season). Gleyber Torres has been very good at hitting the ball to all fields (a key talent for batting average), placing in the 84th percentile in THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season.

Jurickson Profar is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. In Major League Baseball, Petco Park's CF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Jurickson Profar will get to bat from his better side against Carlos Rodon in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees. Jurickson Profar will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Donovan Solano in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Donovan Solano will have the handedness advantage against Carlos Rodon today. Donovan Solano hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Donovan Solano will hold that advantage in today's game.

Jose Trevino has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.