MLB Picks

These are two tantalizing starters: Taj Bradley has a 108 Stuff+, whereas Jared Jones hits 100 mph on the radar gun and had a 3.18 botERA last we saw him in 2024. The main concern is the weather (hot, wind blowing out), but that's mitigated at PNC park (second-lowest park factor for home runs).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in a prime spot Friday night against Trevor Rogers and the Baltimore Orioles. The Toronto Blue Jays slugger enters with an elite Batters-Box rating and has consistently produced in these spots away from home, recording 2+ bases in 50% of elite road matchups. Guerrero also owns the highest arsenal coverage among elite-rated hitters on today’s slate, matching up extremely well against Rogers’ pitch mix. 

Max Meyer and Freddy Peralta have been dominant in the first inning all season, making this a strong NRFI spot. Meyer owns a 9-2 NRFI record and has limited the Mets to a .094 average, while Peralta hasn't allowed a first-inning run in 10 straight starts. Both offenses also struggle to score early.

The St. Louis Cardinals are underdogs despite being the home team and being better over the last 10. Two of the last three times St. Louis has allowed fewer than five runs came in Andre Pallante starts.

His improved pitch mix has paid dividends. In an even matchup with a more reliable starter, I’d take St. Louis and its plus-money odds.

Offense has been hard to find for both Kansas City and Texas lately, which supports another NRFI play. Stephen Kolek has yet to allow a first-inning run this season, while MacKenzie Gore owns an 8-3 NRFI record. With both lineups struggling early, a scoreless first inning is likely.

Rafael Devers is in an elite spot tonight against Michael Lorenzen at Coors Field, but instead of laying juice on traditional props like total bases or HRR, there is more value attacking his ceiling outcome. Rather than paying steep prices for safer markets, sprinkling on Devers to record a double and a home run offers far better upside at plus money. If Devers is going to do damage in this matchup, the expectation is that it comes in loud fashion. Coors Field only adds to that potential, and when a home run just misses, it often turns into a double off the wall anyway.

When you’re cold, it’s never a bad idea to take the most probable home run on the slate today at a projection of 0.39 HR from New York’s Aaron Judge. With an implied 0.33 HR from the +246 price, it grades out as a +EV spot for a Judge homer. This is also the second-best home run park on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and the matchup is favorable for the right-handed slugger, who ranks as THE BAT’s No. 1 hitter in baseball. Luis Severino has struggled significantly at Sutter Health Park, where his ERA is roughly two runs higher than his season average and was three runs higher there last year. His 2.2 HR/9 at home is among the worst marks in baseball, and he has already allowed multiple home runs in three of his four home starts this season. Judge also has history in the matchup, going 4-for-8 with a home run and four RBIs across eight at-bats against Severino.

This spot makes for an appealing Under as both bullpens are fully rested following Thursday’s off day. Philadelphia, which has ace Zack Wheeler on the bump, has a 2.00 SIERA and 28.9 K-BB% in relief over the last 20 days. LA holds a 2.94 FIP in that span.

Drew Rasmussen vs. the New York Yankees is a mismatch on paper — the righty is 4-1 with a 1.03 ERA and 51 punchouts in eight career games against New York. Coming off a thrilling comeback win on Friday, the division-leading Tampa Bay Rays are primed to keep the foot on the gas behind their dynamic arm to create more separation in the AL East.