Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Tropicana Field projects as the #26 stadium in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Aaron Nola will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz in today's matchup. Over the past 7 days, Yandy Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.9% down to 0%. In the past week's worth of games, Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal average of 91.7 mph to 68.2 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wander Franco as the 8th-best hitter in the league when it comes to his batting average talent. Wander Franco is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Tropicana Field has the 4th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Wander Franco will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Tropicana Field projects as the #26 stadium in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this game -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching. Zach Eflin will hold the platoon advantage against Trea Turner today. Among every team in action today, the 5th-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. Trea Turner will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 20th-best batter in MLB. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today. Kyle Schwarber will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin in today's game. Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. In the past week's worth of games, Kyle Schwarber's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 15.8% up to 21.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Marsh as the best hitter in the majors when assessing his BABIP skill. Brandon Marsh will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin today. Brandon Marsh has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Brandon Marsh has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.2-mph average to last season's 89.2-mph mark. In the last week, Brandon Marsh's 30.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19%.

Alec Bohm's batting average skill is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Bohm has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. In the past week, Alec Bohm's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.9-mph over the course of the season to 94.7-mph lately. Alec Bohm's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (14.8° over the past two weeks) is considerably better than his 7.5° seasonal figure. Alec Bohm's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 13.2% to 17.1%.

Tropicana Field has the 4th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Taylor Walls will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Taylor Walls's launch angle from last year's 16.4° to 21° this season. In the past two weeks, Taylor Walls has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 25.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 18.3°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Luke Raley is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Luke Raley will have the handedness advantage against Aaron Nola in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Luke Raley will hold that advantage today.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's game. Isaac Paredes has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 5.1% seasonal rate to 13.3% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Bryson Stott will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin in today's matchup. Bryson Stott has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. In the past 14 days, Bryson Stott's 59.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.4%. Bryson Stott has put up a .283 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jose Siri's BABIP skill is projected in the 84th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Siri pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage today. Jose Siri has made notable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 6.3% rate last year to 17.7% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randy Arozarena in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Randy Arozarena is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Randy Arozarena has made notable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 7.9% rate last year to 15.6% this year.

Bryce Harper projects as the 10th-best batter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage over Zach Eflin in today's matchup. Bryce Harper has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Bryce Harper has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .348 figure is a good deal lower than his .388 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage against Aaron Nola today. Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Philadelphia's 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Brandon Lowe, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Tropicana Field has the 4th-shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums. Darick Hall will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin in today's matchup. With a .326 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Darick Hall finds himself in the 75th percentile for offensive skills. Darick Hall's 14.3% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) ranks in the 95th percentile since the start of last season. Darick Hall's 91.7-mph average exit velocity is among the best in Major League Baseball since the start of last season: 92nd percentile.

Harold Ramirez has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Christian Bethancourt has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Nick Castellanos has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

J.T. Realmuto has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.