MLS Predictions: Moneyline Picks for Every Matchday 23 Game

Last week's MLS slate featured six matches that ended level after 90 minutes. We correctly tabbed three of those en route to an extremely profitable Matchday 22, where we picked eight of the 15 results.

With almost the entire league getting a full week off for the first time in a month, there are some strong favorites heading into Matchday 23, with five clubs being tabbed at 60% or more to win on the probability markets. 

We're here to help you navigate the juice with our MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 23!

MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 23

Game	Pick
NYCFC vs Nashville SC	Nashville 38%
Charlotte FC vs Houston Dynamo	Charlotte 43%
Columbus Crew vs Colorado Rapids	Columbus 47%
FC Cincinnati vs DC United	FC Cincinnati 62%
Inter Miami vs Atlanta United	Inter Miami 76%
Orlando City vs San Diego FC	Draw 23%
Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal	Philadelphia 67%
Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire	Draw 43%
Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes	Austin 44%
FC Dallas vs Sporting KC	Dallas 69%
Seattle Sounders vs NY Red Bulls	Seattle 51%
LA Galaxy vs New England Revolution	Draw 25%
Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles FC	Real Salt Lake 37%
Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United	Draw 25%
Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis CITY	Draw 19%

Percentages courtesy of DraftKings Predictions, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Expert MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 23

NYCFC vs Nashville SC pick: Nashville

DraftKings Predictions probability: 38%

Like I said last week, Nashville's the first team I put on the sheet each week—and this week, they're in the opening fixture and somehow sitting level with the hosts in terms of probability. They'll pick up a fifth straight victory as they visit an NYCFC side that is struggling for answers and has two draws and four defeats in their last six in all competitions.

Charlotte FC vs Houston Dynamo pick: Charlotte

DraftKings Predictions probability: 43%

Houston is second in the Western Conference at the moment, but they've lost five of 11 away from home and have a minus-2 goal differential on their travels. Charlotte have claimed 24 of a possible 36 points in front of their fans, and Allen Saint-Maximin is already showing signs of being a problem for defenses. Take the home team to win. 

Columbus Crew vs Colorado Rapids pick: Columbus 

DraftKings Predictions probability: 47%

Colorado is the definition of consistency. And by consistent, I mean they always win at home—six in a row, in fact—and lose on the road, where they've dropped eight of 11 fixtures. The Crew has lost five straight, but this is the first time they've had more than four days off since August began. Look for Columbus to get back in the win column.   

FC Cincinnati vs DC United pick: FC Cincinnati

DraftKings Predictions probability: 62%

The first of multiple spots this weekend where the price to be on the correct side is quite high; Cincinnati is 62¢ for a reason. They've dropped just eight of a possible 33 points at home this season and are hosting a DC United side that has scored just one goal in their last three matches. Even against this leaky Cincinnati defense, that's not good enough to outscore Evander. 

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United pick: Inter Miami

DraftKings Predictions probability: 76%

I'm picking Inter Miami to win this match, but I would avoid this match given the current pricing. 76¢ is too steep of a price to pay for an Inter Miami side that is inconsistent, playing against an Atlanta United side that might be debuting Breel Embolo. I'm expecting the Herons to win, but this is an absolute no-play for me at this probability. 

Orlando City vs San Diego pick: Draw

DraftKings Predictions probability: 23%

The good news for Orlando is they've only lost once in their last four. The bad news is that they've claimed only five points in that span. San Diego is in solid form, with five wins in six across all comps, including a rare road win at LAFC. However, a suspension to Jeppe Tverskov in midfield is a painful loss and will allow Orlando an opening to get another draw. 

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal pick: Philadelphia Union

DraftKings Predictions probability: 67%

I'm rarely comfortable taking a play with this high of a price, but this is a spot where Montreal is extremely vulnerable. They are coming off a grueling Canadian Championship semi-final match in Vancouver on Wednesday night, and facing a Philly team with a red-hot Cavan Sullivan pulling the strings.

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire: Draw

DraftKings Predictions probability: 27%

Toronto loves to draw so much I'm expecting them to launch an art exhibit soon. Last week's 1-1 stalemate was their fifth draw in eight matches, and put them on 10 through 22 matches. The Fire have shared the spoils in their last two MLS outings as well, and with both sides on five-match unbeaten runs in the league, I foresee another match ending all square. 

Austin FC vs San Jose pick: Austin

DraftKings Predictions probability: 44%

It feels odd to be picking Austin to defeat a San Jose side that thumped them 5-1 in their own stadium just a few months ago. But Austin has lost just once in their last 13 matches in all comps, while the Earthquakes have lost eight of their last 11, with only one victory in that span. San Jose won't be able to overcome an injury crisis that's worsening every week. 

FC Dallas vs Sporting KC pick: Dallas

DraftKings Predictions probability: 69%

This is another spot where we hold our nose and drink the juice, as we back a Dallas side that has conceded eight goals in their last two matches. That said, Sporting KC has claimed four points from their last nine matches, and has lost nine of 11 on the road. The juice is worth the squeeze. 

Seattle Sounders vs NY Red Bulls pick: Seattle

DraftKings Predictions probability: 51%

Dejan Joveljic paid immediate dividends for the Sounders after his transfer, bagging a brace in the draw against the Fire last weekend. Their two straight draws ended an eight-match losing skid in MLS play, and I'm backing them to finally celebrate a win against a NYRB side that has claimed just four points in their last seven matches.  

LA Galaxy vs New England Revolution pick: Draw

DraftKings Predictions probability: 25%

The Galaxy have drawn four of their last eight matches, including two straight at home. While the Revs are on a decent little streak, a cross-country trip is never easy, and they've only won three times in 10 away matches. This is a spot where both sides will be happy with a point. 

Real Salt Lake vs LAFC pick: Real Salt Lake

DraftKings Predictions probability: 37%

I think this is the most incorrect probability of the weekend. Real Salt Lake are winless in their last five, but fatigue and the trade of a key player have been major factors in that run. That said, they're a force when playing at home, and LAFC have just one victory in their last eight in all competitions. Give me the home side at an underdog price.   

Portland Timbers vs Minnesota United: Draw

DraftKings Predictions probability: 25%

Portland's loss last week to Austin was surprising and frustrating, given that they doubled up the visitors in terms of xG. Minnesota's a side that is actually better away than at home, and they've taken a result in six of their last seven meetings with the Timbers—including two of three visits to the Pacific Northwest. They'll get another well-earned point against an injury-riddled Timbers team.   

Vancouver Whitecaps vs St. Louis City: Draw

DraftKings Predictions probability: 19%

Do I think Vancouver is the better side and will likely walk away with three points? Yes, I do. Am I going to take them to win at 67% probability against a St. Louis side that has now gone 13 matches without a defeat? Absolutely not, and neither should you. The draw offers tremendous value and is worth the 19¢ price. 

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