Leeds vs Crystal Palace Picks and Predictions: Plenty of Goals, Short on Defense

Crystal Palace's potent scoring attack - and questionable defense - should help put plenty of goals on the board against Leeds on Tuesday, but it may be wise to put money on a high-scoring draw. See that and more in our free EPL betting picks.

Last Updated: Nov 29, 2021 2:17 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Wilfried Zaha Crystal Palace Premier League
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Premier League supporters are in for a treat this week with a number of midweek games to enjoy. Tuesday sees Leeds United welcome Crystal Palace to Elland Road in a game with growing importance. Crystal Palace sits 11th in the league table and only four points ahead of Leeds. That doesn’t tell the whole story, however, with Leeds just one spot out of the relegation zone. 

Tuesday’s game under the lights could be key for both teams’ seasons, check out our Leeds vs. Crystal Palace picks and predictions now.

Leeds vs Crystal Palace match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Leeds vs Crystal Palace betting tips

Predictions made on 11/29/2021 at 12:22 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Leeds vs Crystal Palace game info

Location: Elland Road, Leeds, England
Date: Tuesday, November 30, 2021
Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
TV: DAZN, Amazon Prime Video

Leeds vs Crystal Palace betting preview


With the temperature around 50 degrees Fahrenheit it won’t be too cold but we’re expecting light rain at Elland Road and strong winds.


Leeds: Patrick Bamford (Out), Luke Ayling (Out).
Crystal Palace: Joachim Andersen (Out).

Leeds vs Crystal Palace predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Crystal Palace were a fashionable pick to get relegated this season. The South London team saw experienced manager Roy Hodgson leave the club and get replaced by Patrick Vieira, the French manager best known in the Premier League for his time at Arsenal as part of the great “invincibles” side.

A heavy defeat on the opening weekend against Chelsea didn’t fill anybody with confidence, but slowly Vieira has turned it around. Vieira’s done a brilliant job in turning this relegation fancied side into one of the most enjoyable to watch in the Premier League. He’s blended experience and know-how with the likes of Christian Benteke, Wilfried Zaha, and Cheikhou Kouyaté with exciting young talent like Marc Guehi and Conor Gallagher, who were both signed from Chelsea on permanent and loan deals, respectively. 

Conor Gallagher has performed better than anybody could have expected. The 21-year-old has scored four goals in just 12 appearances in the league and has added three assists. Gallagher is a tough tackler, but he offers a lot going forward, too. His incredible form earned him a call-up to the English national team, and he is surely set for a bright future even if it’s back at his parent club Chelsea. Michael Olise has also been brilliant this season but we’re likely to see the former Reading man rotated for Jordan Ayew or Odsonne Edouard. Alongside these talents is the shadow of Eberechi Eze, the talented youngster only returned from a horrific injury against Aston Villa, but he’ll be looking to make up for six months out of the game. Eze is incredible to watch. His movement is fluid, incisive, and quick and his creativity and ingenuity make him a terrifying prospect and a near-certain star of the future for England.

That’s a whole lot of talent to lock down, and Marcelo Bielsa will need his Leeds team to be at their best if they’re going to get a much-needed win here. This season has been far from the vintage Leeds that we saw on their return to the Premier League with some of the club's best players looking out of sorts this campaign. One man who hasn’t been in poor form has been Raphinha. The 24-year-old Brazilian looks to come in from the wings - generally the right and has an incredible scoring record this year, netting near one in every two games. If you lock down Raphinha, then you have a good chance of stopping Leeds. Graham Potter did a good job of it at the weekend by condensing the space around him but Vieira is unlikely to play three at the back, which could give him space to thrive. 

My concerns with Leeds are around their ability to score. They’ve conceded twenty goals, only one more than Crystal Palace, but they’ve scored seven fewer. Patrick Bamford’s injury has deprived them of their best striker that’s led to a huge reliance on Raphinha who has scored just under half of their Premier League goals this season. When you’re having problems scoring you need to make sure that you keep things tight at the back and Leeds haven’t done that.

Defensive strength isn’t part of the Bielsa formula, he’s shown the importance of attack throughout his career but it can leave him and his teams open to sides who can counter-attack. A Crystal Palace team on the road fits the bill and Wilfried Zaha will thrive in the space that over-committing forward could afford him. I can’t see Palace leaving Yorkshire without a point at least and +230 on the draw seems the smart play, although a Palace win is not out of the question. You can back the double chance at -188, but I’ll take the tie at +230.

Prediction: Draw (+230)

So far this season, travelers Crystal Palace have averaged 2.92 goals scored or conceded per game but you could argue that this has been skewed from a number of high-scoring draws with the team having tied four games that featured either four or six total goals. We’ve seen a number of high-scoring draws and we’ll be hoping for another on Tuesday.

A deep look into the stats actually tells us that Crystal Palace have had Over 2.5 goals in 61.5% of their games this term, a number that leaps to a massive 83.3% when they’re on the road. In fact, just one of Palace’s six away games has ended up hitting Under 2.5 goals.

For Leeds, it’s been a lot closer with their six home games split down the middle with 50% achieving three or more goals. We’ll be backing the Over here and hoping that the great attacking talent on offer for Palace can score a few goals.

Prediction: Over 2.5 Goals (-110)

Discipline has been an issue for Leeds this season. Only two teams, Newcastle and Brighton, have had more yellow cards than them. That should be a worry, especially when their style of play can sometimes lead them into needing to make last-ditch tackles.

Tuesday’s game will be refereed by Kevin Friend. Friend is an experienced ref, but he’s given out 23 yellow cards and one red in just four Premier League games this season. That clearly shows he’s not afraid to book a player, meaning that we could find value backing a Leeds player to get a card.

When studying the potential lineups, the player who leaps out is Jamie Shackleton. The 22-year-old is set to play right back up against Zaha. In just nine Premier League games, five of which were starts, Shackleton has picked up three yellow cards. Now, he faces the Palace’s best player, who will bamboozle him with his footwork and terrify him with his goal threat. Zaha is routinely one of the most fouled players in the league with his direct style of play, and his quick feet represent a danger for defenders. The young and inexperienced Shackleton will do well to finish this game without a card. At odds of +333, it looks like a great price.

Pick: Jamie Shackleton to get booked (+333)

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