Everton vs Liverpool Picks and Predictions: Rafa Benitez Welcomes Familiar Foe

Wednesday sees Everton and Liverpool meet in the Merseyside derby. There are always fireworks when these teams meet, and it’s arguably one of the world’s great rivalries. 

Now, former Liverpool manager Rafa Benitez is in charge of Everton and will be in the blue dugout trying to defeat his former team. Will Rafa have the last laugh or will Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool continue their challenge for the Premier League title.

Don’t miss our Everton vs. Liverpool picks and predictions for this huge derby game.

Everton vs Liverpool match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Everton vs Liverpool betting tips

• Prediction: Liverpool (-275)
• Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (+137)
• Best bet: Mohamed Salah to score (-163)

Predictions made on 11/30/2021 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Everton vs Liverpool game info

• Location: Goodison Park, Liverpool, England
• Date: Wednesday, December 1, 2021
• Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
• TV: FuboTV, NBCSN

Everton vs Liverpool betting preview

Weather

Temperatures will be around 40 degrees with clear skies following rain earlier that day. The pitch will play quick, and the relatively low wind shouldn’t impact the action much.

Injuries

Everton: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Out), Tom Davies (Out), Yerry Mina (Out).
Liverpool: Naby Keita (Out), Harvey Elliott (Out), Roberto Firmino (Out), Curtis Jones (Out), Joe Gomez (Out).

Everton vs Liverpool predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Side analysis

The Merseyside derby is one of the most famous rivalries in the Premier League. At either end of Stanley Park sit two of the biggest clubs in England - Everton and Liverpool - and they’ve been rivals ever since their first meeting over 100 years ago in 1894. 

Liverpool have been the most successful of the clubs through the years, both in terms of the derby with 95 wins in 238 meetings and in terms of trophies, where they’ve become one of Europe’s most successful clubs. In recent years, the gap has grown with Jurgen Klopp bringing Premier League glory back to the red half of Merseyside. It was the first time they’d won the league in 30 years and their biggest achievement since Rafa Benitez led them to a Champions League victory in 2005.

Now, Benitez lines up in the home dugout in the colors of Everton against his former team. Benitez was hugely popular at Liverpool and despite stops at Newcastle, Inter Milan, Real Madrid, and a short spell in China, he will always be associated with Liverpool and that famous Champions League win there. When Everton employed the Spaniard to replace Carlo Ancelotti, it caused an uproar with Toffees fans adamant that a Liverpool legend shouldn’t be in charge of the team. Benitez’s history has meant he’s not had the full support of the fanbase, and the leash is getting shorter with Everton struggling down to 14th in the Premier League, 11 spots below his former team.

A victory over Klopp’s dynamic Liverpool team would go a long way to earning the fanbase's backing, and he’ll have that opportunity on this cold Wednesday Liverpool night. However, it won’t be easy with Liverpool arguably the most in form of all Premier League teams.

After a poor season last year, no doubt heavily impacted by an injury to Virgil van Dijk, amongst others, there were doubts over whether the team would bounce back. Those questions have been answered and, despite being third in the league, they’re only two points off Chelsea, who sit at the top. Liverpool is playing with the energy and verve of the team that won the Premier League in the 19/20 season.

Mohamed Salah has been the best player on the planet in the past three months, and he’s joined by Diego Jota and Sadio Mane in that front three. They’ll cause nightmares for Everton’s defense with Seamus Coleman and Lucas Digne likely to be instructed by Benitez to cut their attacking tendencies and cover the two centerbacks. 

The game will be won in the center midfield with Everton’s Allan and Abdoulaye Doucoure likely to start opposite Thiago, Fabinho, and Jordan Henderson. Fabinho is the plater who sits deep and breaks up plays, and he’ll be tasked with dropping deep to help the team shape when Liverpool’s fullbacks get forward. Henderson will provide the legs, acting as the engine room of the team, and Thiago will use his creativity to dictate the tempo. Thiago had a tough start to life in the Premier League, with many arguing that he wasn’t cut out for the English game, but he’s found his feet and now looks at home in that Liverpool midfield.

This game will be a huge ask for Everton, who are still without their best goalscorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin and will need Richarlison to play at his very best in order to stand a chance. Ultimately the gap in quality is simply too big and you can’t see Everton managing to scrape a point here, let alone three points for the win. Liverpool are irresistible right now and their high pressing game will cause Benitez to sit back and play defensive. Back Liverpool to take all three points.

Prediction: Liverpool (-275)

Over/Under analysis

Everton games have a 50/50 chance at going Over/Under when they’ve played at Goodison Park this season, although those haven’t been against top-three teams as of yet. Liverpool have also been dominant away from home, playing six games on the road, winning four with all six having Over 2.5 goals.

That should point us toward backing the Over here, but the value is on the under. I’d always advise looking at stats when betting but sometimes you need to just respect the history, and one thing we’ve learned about Rafa Benitez through the years is that he keeps his teams very tight at the back, especially in key games.

It’s a trait of his that we’ve seen throughout his career. He’s a risk-averse manager and his first priority will be making sure that Everton don’t lose. To do that he’ll look to frustrate Liverpool and won’t encourage his players to get forward or leave any chance of being outnumbered at the back. When their back is against the wall, you can always rely on a manager to revert to type, and Benitez will try his best to do that here. Will it work? 

Prediction: Under 2.5 goals (+137)

Best bet

This season we’ve seen Mohamed Salah announce himself as the best player in the world. He’s been among the best players for the past three or four seasons, but he’s really graduated into the next level this year and has become a monster. 

Salah's ability to find the net is reminiscent of Cristiano Ronaldo’s original spell in the Premier League. He picks up the ball out wide and inevitably finds himself in front of goal and scoring. The incredible Egyptian is the star, and this team and has scored 11 goals in 13 appearances in the Premier League. Now, he faces an Everton team that has conceded 20 goals in 13 games.

It’s not the most creative bet, but we have to back Salah to score anytime here. The odds are very short at -163 but those imply a 62% chance that he should find the net. When we look at his goal tally of 11 in 13, it shows he scores a goal in an average of 84% of his games. The percentages are in our favor. 

Pick: Mohamed Salah anytime goal (-163)

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