Arsenal are under heavy pressure after their recent slump in form, so they may find the sledding tough.
Diego Simeone's side haven't been consistent enough throughout the campaign, but still delivered high-end results and a Champions League run that exceeded expectations.
My Atletico Madrid vs. Arsenal predictions and free betting picks see very little separation between the two on Wednesday, April 29.
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal picks and predictions
My Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal best bet: Draw at halftime or fulltime (-147 at Sports Interaction)
Arsenal's defence in the Champions League has been outstanding, with eight clean sheets so far this season. They have conceded in only three matches. The two sides met in the league stage in October, when Arsenal ran out 4–0 winners at the Emirates.
It is likely to be a different contest this time. Atlético have never lost at home to an English side in six Champions League knockout matches.
As this is a two-legged tie, qualification will not be decided in Madrid, and both teams may ultimately be content with a draw.
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Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal same-game parlay (SGP)
Julian Alvarez 1+ shots on target
Antoine Griezmann 1+ shots on target
Declan Rice 1+ shots on target
Over 8.5 corners
The nine goals Julián Álvarez has scored in the Champions League this season are already the most by an Atlético Madrid player in a single campaign. He will be looking to improve on that tally, and I won’t be leaving him out of my SGP.
I’ll also include Antoine Griezmann, who is now playing his final UEFA matches before a move to MLS. The French World Cup winner will want to leave Atlético on a high and is likely to mark his farewell games with as many contributions as possible. He remains an important figure for Diego Simeone, who has started him in Atlético’s last four Champions League matches. He is always a threat going forward.
Declan Rice, Arsenal’s key midfield presence, could also play an important role in the outcome of the semifinal. I’m backing his eye for goal, as well as his dominance in midfield. Given how important set pieces are in Arsenal’s game, and Rice’s ability to test goalkeepers from both inside and outside the box, I believe he can be dangerous to Atlético’s goal.
I’m also adding corners to push my SGP return to +800. Atlético usually averages more than five corners per game in the Champions League. But they had no fewer than 12 against Bodø/Glimt, nine against Union SG, and seven each against Inter and Galatasaray. Arsenal, meanwhile, recorded 11 against Kairat, 10 against Leverkusen, eight against Sporting, and seven against Inter.
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal odds
 Atletico Madrid |
 Arsenal |
|
|---|---|---|
| +175 | Moneyline | +160 |
| +220 | Draw | +220 |
| Over 2.5 (+115) | Total | Under 2.5 (-159) |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
How to watch Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal
| Location | Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain |
| Date | Wednesday, April 29, 2026 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Weather | Rain showers. |
Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal key injuries
Atletico Madrid: José María Giménez (Out), Pablo Barrios (Out), Ademola Lookman (Questionable).
Arsenal: Jurriën Timber (Out), Mikel Merino (Out), Kai Havertz (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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