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    All Forums | College Football

    Why You Shouldn't Bet Against the SEC in Bowl Season

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    jimmydafreak
    veNicedammmit
    HURRICAN3
    phancard
    jwheels86
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    jimmydafreak
    jimmydafreak
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 2:31 AM ET #1

    This is a tried and true method for winning money betting on bowl games year in and year out, and I've used this theory successfully for almost 20 years.  My theory is that you NEVER bet against SEC teams.  Now I'm not advocating that you blindly bet on every SEC team (even though you would make money if you did so), but you should be betting on most of them.  The lines, the motivation of the teams invovled, and other intangibles should guide your final decision making process.

    The SEC has 10 teams playing in bowl games and they probably won't lose more than two of them.

    Here is why I believe this strategy is successful EVERY year.

    Let's start at the beginning.  For the SEC, it all starts with recruiting.  This year's recruiting rankings are very typical of what you see every year  There are 6 SEC teams ranked in the top 9 nationally.

    Now imagine if you're Mark Richt at Georgia and you have the nation's 9th best recruiting class.  That sounds great until you realize that you have the 6th best recruiting class in your own conference!!!  The point is the SEC has the best athletes in the country, and more of them.  That is a plain and simple fact, and if you want to win money, you need to understand this.

    My second point is this.  If you've ever played sports, you know that when you play against top-notch competition, it pushes you to get better and play your best.  SEC teams not only play against the best, they also practice everyday against the best.  That creates an atmosphere that constantly pushes these great athletes to improve.

    I had several people tell me this past week that Bama has not seen a defense like Florida's all year.  My response was "Yes they have.  They practice against one everyday in practice."

    In a similar vain, SEC teams have to play much tougher competition in much tougher venues week in and week out.  When teams like Florida play teams like Ohio State in bowl games, Florida has already played 5 or 6 intense, pressure-filled games in the limelight of a national tv audience.  For a team like Ohio State, they usually will only play a couple of tough games a year, and even those "tough" games usually don't match the intensity of the SEC games.

    So come bowl season, non-SEC teams usually cannot match the speed, and intensity of the SEC teams.  On top of that, they are usually facing a much higher caliber of athlete than they are accustomed to both in practice and in the games they have played.

    A perfect example of this is when the two divisional ACC champions were matched up against two middle tier SEC teams a couple of weeks ago.  Georgia and South Carolina dominated both of these games.  Georgia Tech and Clemson simply could not match the speed, athleticism and intensity of the middle tier SEC schools.

    So do yourself a favor this bowl season, please don't fade SEC schools.  In fasct, I recommend you do this.  After Alabama beats and covers against Texas in the national championship game, go back and read is thread and see how accurate it was.

    I will also note that now that USC is not dominating the PAC 10 anymore, the competition level within that conference has elevated considerably the last two years.  Accordingly, I doubt I'll be wagering against that conference this bowl season either.

    In sum, fade teams that are matched up against SEC & PAC 10 schools this bowl season, and I'm confident you'll make yourself a little extra coin this holiday season.

    BOL TO ALL!!!


     

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    This is a tried and true method for winning money betting on bowl games year in and year out, and I've used this theory successfully for almost 20 years.  My theory is that you NEVER bet against SEC teams.  Now I'm not advocating that you blindly bet on every SEC team (even though you would make money if you did so), but you should be betting on most of them.  The lines, the motivation of the teams invovled, and other intangibles should guide your final decision making process.

    The SEC has 10 teams playing in bowl games and they probably won't lose more than two of them.

    Here is why I believe this strategy is successful EVERY year.

    Let's start at the beginning.  For the SEC, it all starts with recruiting.  This year's recruiting rankings are very typical of what you see every year  There are 6 SEC teams ranked in the top 9 nationally.

    Now imagine if you're Mark Richt at Georgia and you have the nation's 9th best recruiting class.  That sounds great until you realize that you have the 6th best recruiting class in your own conference!!!  The point is the SEC has the best athletes in the country, and more of them.  That is a plain and simple fact, and if you want to win money, you need to understand this.

    My second point is this.  If you've ever played sports, you know that when you play against top-notch competition, it pushes you to get better and play your best.  SEC teams not only play against the best, they also practice everyday against the best.  That creates an atmosphere that constantly pushes these great athletes to improve.

    I had several people tell me this past week that Bama has not seen a defense like Florida's all year.  My response was "Yes they have.  They practice against one everyday in practice."

    In a similar vain, SEC teams have to play much tougher competition in much tougher venues week in and week out.  When teams like Florida play teams like Ohio State in bowl games, Florida has already played 5 or 6 intense, pressure-filled games in the limelight of a national tv audience.  For a team like Ohio State, they usually will only play a couple of tough games a year, and even those "tough" games usually don't match the intensity of the SEC games.

    So come bowl season, non-SEC teams usually cannot match the speed, and intensity of the SEC teams.  On top of that, they are usually facing a much higher caliber of athlete than they are accustomed to both in practice and in the games they have played.

    A perfect example of this is when the two divisional ACC champions were matched up against two middle tier SEC teams a couple of weeks ago.  Georgia and South Carolina dominated both of these games.  Georgia Tech and Clemson simply could not match the speed, athleticism and intensity of the middle tier SEC schools.

    So do yourself a favor this bowl season, please don't fade SEC schools.  In fasct, I recommend you do this.  After Alabama beats and covers against Texas in the national championship game, go back and read is thread and see how accurate it was.

    I will also note that now that USC is not dominating the PAC 10 anymore, the competition level within that conference has elevated considerably the last two years.  Accordingly, I doubt I'll be wagering against that conference this bowl season either.

    In sum, fade teams that are matched up against SEC & PAC 10 schools this bowl season, and I'm confident you'll make yourself a little extra coin this holiday season.

    BOL TO ALL!!!


     

     
    veNicedammmit
    veNicedammmit
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 2:39 AM ET #2

       nice write up

    GA and SC were against ACC.  that was easy.
    both dogs too...if I remember right.  could be wrong on that, and don't feel like looking it up.   
    Reply
       nice write up

    GA and SC were against ACC.  that was easy.
    both dogs too...if I remember right.  could be wrong on that, and don't feel like looking it up.   
     
    HURRICAN3
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 2:43 AM ET #3

    agreed for the most part but there is always gonna be them games like bama vs utah .. when utah made bama look slowww


    Reply
    agreed for the most part but there is always gonna be them games like bama vs utah .. when utah made bama look slowww


     
    phancard
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 2:46 AM ET #4

    Congrats on your Bama winnng the SEC Championship game, I was worng in taking Florida. I think Bama should easily win against a Texas team that was lucky to be there. Bama -5 is my bet. I also think Oregon -4 against Ohio St is also a good play. BOl this bowl season bud ..Nice info by the way
    Reply
    Congrats on your Bama winnng the SEC Championship game, I was worng in taking Florida. I think Bama should easily win against a Texas team that was lucky to be there. Bama -5 is my bet. I also think Oregon -4 against Ohio St is also a good play. BOl this bowl season bud ..Nice info by the way
     
    jimmydafreak
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 2:51 AM ET #5

    Quote Originally Posted by HURRICAN3:

    agreed for the most part but there is always gonna be them games like bama vs utah .. when utah made bama look slowww


    I had planned on betting Bama pretty large the entire bowl season until they lost their defensive coordinator, the best offensive lineman in the country, and Tide players were showing up passed out drunk in the French Quarter the week of the game.  Every intangible one could conceive favored Utah in this matchup.

    I never said that the SEC will win every game.  Out of 10 games they might lose 2 of them, and might not cover another.  But that's still 70%.

     

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by HURRICAN3:

    agreed for the most part but there is always gonna be them games like bama vs utah .. when utah made bama look slowww


    I had planned on betting Bama pretty large the entire bowl season until they lost their defensive coordinator, the best offensive lineman in the country, and Tide players were showing up passed out drunk in the French Quarter the week of the game.  Every intangible one could conceive favored Utah in this matchup.

    I never said that the SEC will win every game.  Out of 10 games they might lose 2 of them, and might not cover another.  But that's still 70%.

     

     
    jimmydafreak
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 2:53 AM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by phancard:

    Congrats on your Bama winnng the SEC Championship game, I was worng in taking Florida. I think Bama should easily win against a Texas team that was lucky to be there. Bama -5 is my bet. I also think Oregon -4 against Ohio St is also a good play. BOl this bowl season bud ..Nice info by the way

    Thanks Phancard!!!  I totally agree with both plays!!!  You might want to throw Florida in there too.

     

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by phancard:

    Congrats on your Bama winnng the SEC Championship game, I was worng in taking Florida. I think Bama should easily win against a Texas team that was lucky to be there. Bama -5 is my bet. I also think Oregon -4 against Ohio St is also a good play. BOl this bowl season bud ..Nice info by the way

    Thanks Phancard!!!  I totally agree with both plays!!!  You might want to throw Florida in there too.

     

     
    phancard
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 3:15 AM ET #7

    Yeah Florida should beat up a small Cincy Defense. Florida should be able to run all over them. Florida D  should keep Cincy pass happy Ofeense in check.
    Reply
    Yeah Florida should beat up a small Cincy Defense. Florida should be able to run all over them. Florida D  should keep Cincy pass happy Ofeense in check.
     
    jwheels86
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 3:19 AM ET #8

    koko dont ruin another thread
    Reply
    koko dont ruin another thread
     
    jimmydafreak
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 3:35 AM ET #9

    Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

    koko dont ruin another thread

    What the hell is Koko doing to the threads to F them up?

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

    koko dont ruin another thread

    What the hell is Koko doing to the threads to F them up?

     
    jimmydafreak
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 3:37 AM ET #10

    Quote Originally Posted by phancard:

    Yeah Florida should beat up a small Cincy Defense. Florida should be able to run all over them. Florida D  should keep Cincy pass happy Ofeense in check.

    My early score prediction is 56-21 Gators!!!

    Reply

    Quote Originally Posted by phancard:

    Yeah Florida should beat up a small Cincy Defense. Florida should be able to run all over them. Florida D  should keep Cincy pass happy Ofeense in check.

    My early score prediction is 56-21 Gators!!!

     
    jwheels86
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 3:38 AM ET #11

    posting trash about Nick Saban

     

     

     

    Reply

    posting trash about Nick Saban

     

     

     

     
    jimmydafreak
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 3:51 AM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

    posting trash about Nick Saban

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

    posting trash about Nick Saban

     
    veNicedammmit
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 4:16 AM ET #13

        
    Reply
        
     
    Bucks10
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 7:34 AM ET #14

    Good write up. I'm afraid you're right about Florida
    Reply
    Good write up. I'm afraid you're right about Florida
     
    kroch
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 11:32 AM ET #15

    my worry with your theory is that the SEC simply hasn't been very good this year.

    and they have loss to a number of teams OOC during the year.  Houston, Okie State, and UCLA to name a few.

    Reply

    my worry with your theory is that the SEC simply hasn't been very good this year.

    and they have loss to a number of teams OOC during the year.  Houston, Okie State, and UCLA to name a few.

     
    Ice4Blood
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 12:30 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

    In sum, fade teams that are matched up against SEC & PAC 10 schools this bowl season, and I'm confident you'll make yourself a little extra coin this holiday season.

    BOL TO ALL!!!

     

    you might like my preliminary card:

    Oregon St, Cal, Nevada, USC, Georgia, Stanford, LSU, Oregon, Florida, Ol Miss, Troy, Alabama

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

    In sum, fade teams that are matched up against SEC & PAC 10 schools this bowl season, and I'm confident you'll make yourself a little extra coin this holiday season.

    BOL TO ALL!!!

     

    you might like my preliminary card:

    Oregon St, Cal, Nevada, USC, Georgia, Stanford, LSU, Oregon, Florida, Ol Miss, Troy, Alabama

     
    Ice4Blood
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 12:31 PM ET #17

    forget about Arkansas...
    Reply
    forget about Arkansas...
     
    jcam61
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 12:32 PM ET #18

    Quote Originally Posted by kroch:

    my worry with your theory is that the SEC simply hasn't been very good this year.

    and they have loss to a number of teams OOC during the year.  Houston, Okie State, and UCLA to name a few.


    Mississippi State only lost to Houston by 7 points.  They were the 2nd worst team in the SEC against a ranked opponent.    The other two games were good wins for the PAC-10 and the Big 12, albeit very early in the season.  Also, the OP recommended favoring PAC-10 teams alongside the SEC. 

    It was already mentioned the big games the middle tier SEC teams won against higher ranked opponents so I don't need to mention those again.

    The SEC also has a 10-4 record against other teams from BCS leagues and a total 42-6 overall nonconference record.

    Heres the records of other BCS conferences against all nonconference...then vs BCS conferences in the 2nd column.

    SEC          42-6 (.875)     10-4

    Big East   32-8 (.800)      9-7

    Pac-10     21-10 (.677)    8-7

    ACC          30-18 (.625)   9-11

    Big Ten     31-11 (738)    5-9

    Big 12       35-13 (.729)   4-7

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by kroch:

    my worry with your theory is that the SEC simply hasn't been very good this year.

    and they have loss to a number of teams OOC during the year.  Houston, Okie State, and UCLA to name a few.


    Mississippi State only lost to Houston by 7 points.  They were the 2nd worst team in the SEC against a ranked opponent.    The other two games were good wins for the PAC-10 and the Big 12, albeit very early in the season.  Also, the OP recommended favoring PAC-10 teams alongside the SEC. 

    It was already mentioned the big games the middle tier SEC teams won against higher ranked opponents so I don't need to mention those again.

    The SEC also has a 10-4 record against other teams from BCS leagues and a total 42-6 overall nonconference record.

    Heres the records of other BCS conferences against all nonconference...then vs BCS conferences in the 2nd column.

    SEC          42-6 (.875)     10-4

    Big East   32-8 (.800)      9-7

    Pac-10     21-10 (.677)    8-7

    ACC          30-18 (.625)   9-11

    Big Ten     31-11 (738)    5-9

    Big 12       35-13 (.729)   4-7

     
    phobanbud
    phobanbud
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 12:33 PM ET #19

    Nice hit Saturday, kid.
    Reply
    Nice hit Saturday, kid.
     
    Gold_Rush
    Gold_Rush
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 12:37 PM ET #20

    I agree,

    The SEC is top notch

    Not sure why Ice is dumping on Arkansas

    they could have one of the best QB's in the nation
    Reply
    I agree,

    The SEC is top notch

    Not sure why Ice is dumping on Arkansas

    they could have one of the best QB's in the nation
     
    jcam61
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 12:48 PM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:

    I agree,

    The SEC is top notch

    Not sure why Ice is dumping on Arkansas

    they could have one of the best QB's in the nation

    Arkansas should score more on E. Carolina than Houston did.  Their defense just isn't all that great.  I still expect Arkansas to win by two touchdowns.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:

    I agree,

    The SEC is top notch

    Not sure why Ice is dumping on Arkansas

    they could have one of the best QB's in the nation

    Arkansas should score more on E. Carolina than Houston did.  Their defense just isn't all that great.  I still expect Arkansas to win by two touchdowns.
     
    GnarlesBarkley
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 12:48 PM ET #22

    agreed jimmy. it doesnt matter if the sec is having a down year, because a down year in the sec is still better than a good year for any other conference. this will be proved in the upcoming month. i cant see the sec losing more than 2 bowl games, florida and bama are
    Reply
    agreed jimmy. it doesnt matter if the sec is having a down year, because a down year in the sec is still better than a good year for any other conference. this will be proved in the upcoming month. i cant see the sec losing more than 2 bowl games, florida and bama are
     
    Gold_Rush
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 1:09 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by jcam61:


    Arkansas should score more on E. Carolina than Houston did.  Their defense just isn't all that great.  I still expect Arkansas to win by two touchdowns.

    E Carolina stole a bunch of cash this weekend
    but Houston was great all season long 

    Arkansas should have beaten florida lets not forget

    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by jcam61:


    Arkansas should score more on E. Carolina than Houston did.  Their defense just isn't all that great.  I still expect Arkansas to win by two touchdowns.

    E Carolina stole a bunch of cash this weekend
    but Houston was great all season long 

    Arkansas should have beaten florida lets not forget

     
    jcam61
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 1:16 PM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:


    E Carolina stole a bunch of cash this weekend
    but Houston was great all season long 

    Arkansas should have beaten florida lets not forget


    What I meant was that Arkansas' defense wasn't very good.  If that was confusing at all..;)  Meaning ECU might score a lot of points as well.  

    Even acknowledging that I think the Razorbacks put up 50, so no worries here.



    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:


    E Carolina stole a bunch of cash this weekend
    but Houston was great all season long 

    Arkansas should have beaten florida lets not forget


    What I meant was that Arkansas' defense wasn't very good.  If that was confusing at all..;)  Meaning ECU might score a lot of points as well.  

    Even acknowledging that I think the Razorbacks put up 50, so no worries here.



     
     
    managerdent
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    Posted: Dec. 7, 2009 - 1:18 PM ET #25

    SEC = BEST Conference in Football
    Reply
    SEC = BEST Conference in Football
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