Why You Shouldn't Bet Against the SEC in Bowl Season

Happy Holidays Freak

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

like LSU, Arkansas and Ole Miss but I like them because of their matchups being favorable, not because I think the SEC is most dominant conference, I had Kentucky last night and thought that amount of points was too many but that coaching staff was a joke, they kept showing that moron coach in waiting up in the press box named JOKER, he called one of the worst offensive gameplans of the seasons, it was an epic performance by him, if that jackass is really the coach in waiting then UK fans have zero to look forward too for many years, nice use of timeouts by the rest of the staff in the 2nd half as well, glad I lost my money on those whackjobs

Happy Holidays Freak

I got Kentucky early at +7.5 so the half point loss definitely stings, especially for a game that was as close as that one.  This is one of those situations where even though the game was capped correctly, I still lost.

There were 3 things in this game that stuck out to me.  First was the 4th quarter fumble.  The second was the motion penalty on 4th and short in Clemson's territory, and third was the wind.

Now clearly the wind was the same for both teams, but the wind made it very difficult for both teams to score, therefore it favored the team that had the lead at that time, which of course was Clemson.

I didn't really notice any major coaching faux pas, but then again my gf was distracting me for much of the game,  so I'm not saying there weren't any.  I definitely do think the wind had a big effect on the play calling in the 4th quarter however.

I do try to cap each game on their individual merits, but during bowl season, I often give great weight to the conference a particular team hails from.  And I do so because gambling is a game of odds, I generally want the odds in my favor.

In last night's game for example, SEC teams were 27 & 11 ATS as underdogs all time, whereas ACC teams were 9 & 33 ATS as favorites all time.  Not to mention that Kentucky was also a perfect 5 & 0 ATS this season on the road.  Moreover, I felt Kentucky was at least Clemson's equal coming into the game.  There certainly wasn't anything I could see that would have justified a 7 plus line in favor of Clemson.  I think if this game were played 10 times, Kentucky would win 5 of them and cover 9.

In the end, however, the play was a loser, and in the gambling world, that's all that really matters.

I appreciate your thoughtful remarks Wahoo, and I wish you the very best of luck the remainder of the bowl season.

I think anyone who watched the game knows that Clemson was very fortunate to have covered this game.  Kentucky was a very good play that would hit 9 out of 10 times IMO.  Last night was just that 1 that didn't.  That's why they call it gambling.

Despite the opening game loss for the SEC, I'm still very confident that the SEC will cover in 7 or 8 of their bowl games.  This one game does not defeat the overall strategy of favoring SEC teams in bowl games.

I agree.  There are two games that have killed my in the bowl contest - Kentucky +7.5 and Boston College +9.  I really felt like both of these games should have covered.  If you flip those two games around, I'd be 14-4 in the contest, and be at least in the top 20.  As it is, I'm currently sitting in 165th place.  I'll need a miracle to work my way back up to the top.  I'm guess I'm gonna keep pounding those UNDERS and see if that can't get me back in the game.

Quote Originally Posted by gtsum:

I think the SEC does not do as well in bowls this year as in years past.  I think Penn State will take it to LSU, who has not done anything on offense all year..they are dreadful imo.  Tucky went down (although that was a very close game and clemson was lucky to cover).  I do like South Carolina to win BIG, and I like Forida to decimate Natti.  I like Texas to cover against Bama...I cannot see Bama running the ball with much success against Texas (unless they hit some deep passes to loosen the texas front 7 up a bit).  Good luck this bow season

I realize that LSU's coach is the "Village Idiot," but talent-wise they are in the top 3 in the country.  Trust me, the talent gap between LSU and Penn State is vast.

Moreover, as moronic as Les Miles is, you must give this guy credit for his recruiting and his performance in bowl games.  How Penn State is favored in this game is mind-boggling to me.  I really don't see how this game is close.

As far as the Texas game is concerned, I also strenuously disagree with your conclusion that Bama won't be able to run the ball.  This is so because despite being ranked #1 in the nation versus the run, Texas's defense is not built to stop a power running attack like Alabama's.  They are small and fast, and basically employ a 4-cornerback secondary to stop the spread offenses of the Big 12, not power running teams like Bama.

Moreover, the Longhorn offense will be pretty much one-dimensional from the opening kickoff, which should make them fairly easy to defend.

For these reasons I also think Bama will dominate this game.

For a more detailed opinion on the national championship game, see my write-up at:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100628319

In particular, scroll down to see the rushing defense comparison chart between these two teams.

I have 4 crackpipe plays for today:

Temple +4.5

Temple/UCLA UNDER 44.5

Miami -3 (line has moved to - 4 at BM)

Miami/Wisconsin UNDER 57

Good luck to all those who are on the same sides as me

For convenience, I'll put all "posted" plays in a single post.

Utah +3.5 

SMU +15 

Boston College +9

Kentucky +7.5 (Best Bet) 

Kentucky ML 

Georgia -7 

Temple +4.5

Temple/UCLA UNDER 44.5

Miami -3 (line has moved to - 4 at BM)

Miami/Wisconsin UNDER 57

Air Force +5

Oklahoma -8

Navy +6.5

Tennessee +5.5

Tenn/VT UNDER 49.5

LSU +2.5

LSU ML

Florida -11.5 (Best Bet)

South Carolina -4.5

Ole Miss -3

Arkansas -7.5

Bama -4.5 (Best Bet)

I will add some more this tomorrow I'm sure.