Why You Shouldn't Bet Against the SEC in Bowl Season

Thanks for the write-ups.  I also like the top teams of the PAC-10 this year.  I will NOT bet against any SEC team in the bowls, may pass a few games.  I, too, like Florida, Alabama and LSU.  Also Oregon.  Others pending...

 I love the SEC and study it's teams more than the rest of the conferences combined and I'm a bit concerned about the early flurry of coaches who will be leaving their teams before their "Bowl Games". Tenessee,LSU,and Georgia will all be without multiple coaches and Florida will be without DC Charlie Strong (although Cincy will be without HC Brian Kelly).South Carolina's DC Ellis Johnson and 'Bama DC Kirby Smart are being coveted by UGA to replace their departed DC Willie Martinez and 'Bama's LB coach is being courted by FSU to replace their retiring DC Mickey Andrews.

 Coaching vacancies aren't always a roadblock (Tennessee won the BCS championship even after OC David Cutcliffe left to coach Ole Miss with RB coach Randy Sanders calling the plays in the Fiesta Bowl),but I always like to consider them as part of my capping strategy.

that seems like a strong argument and not very gay...

I would not as far as betting against every SEC team this bowl season but I will bet against many of them.

Overall, they will be 50% ATS at best

Lets wait and see

I still can't believe LSU is getting +3, despite the Tigers disappointing year. I thought they would be favored by 3. They are in my opinion, the best prepared SEC team in bowl games, the last few years, beating opponents by double-digit margin and dominating the majority of the game, despite what happens to them during regular season.

Florida is going to run Cincinnati out of the building.

I agree with everything you say Warblade, and have said as much in another post.

I have been one of the biggest critics of Les Miles from day one, and have been often criticized on this board over the years for because of it.  I have consistently called him the "village idiot," and he has sure lived up to my expectations this season.  But as much as I don't like Lesie,  he has performed phenominally in all of his bowl games as head coach of LSU.  I think that is partially due to the fact he under performs during the course of the regular season, and ends up playing an overmatched foe in the bowl game.  Nevertheless, I LOVE LSU getting points here.

Of course I also agree with your assessment of the Florida/Cincy matchup.  That is probably the biggest mismatch of the bowl season IMHO.

I will also agree to hold all of you anti-SEC bets for whatever amount you want to bet (except Tennessee which is a sinking ship at this point).

GL..Hell KY has won 3 straight bowl games and there bottom of SEC most of the yrs

Good luck with your strategy. The game everybody keeps bringing up is the Alabama Utah game. Alabama lost to Florida last year in the SEC Championship, a game that would have put them in the Nat'l Championship. Does everyone really think Bama had their whole heart into playing Utah after missing out on a chance to play in the Nat'l Championship?

There were many intagible working against Bama last year, but despite Bama's loss, the SEC was still 6 & 2 ATS.  On it's face, the Florida/Cincy bears many of the same characteristics of the Bama/Utah game from last season.

Florida lost the SECCG and accordingly got matched up with an undefeated team from an inferior conference, and they are 10 point favorites.  But because all of the Kelly to Notre Dame hullabaloo, and this being Tebow's misty ride into the sunset, I would say the intagibles clearly favor the Gators at this point.

I have never said ALL SEC teams would cover, but I do believe that at least 7 or 8 will.  Could there be another Bama/Utah type of a game again this season?  Sure there can.  But even if there is one, I'm confident the SEC will again dominate this bowl season.

Right now, with all the drama that's going on in Knoxville, the only SEC team I really don't like is Tennessee.

 

I don't have feel about other SEC bowl games but I know they'll do real well against the LITTLE 12. TEXAS gets crushed by BAMA, Osu sucks w/o Dez and A&m will get drilled OU(85-10) style either way. FADE BIG(I mean little)12 this bowl season

Are you like a Texas A&M fan?

The Little 12 is just not that strong this year. Texas has been exposed. Tech is pass happy with their rotating QB's but CAN play good D when it really wants to. OU is only good as Landry Jones is that day. A&M is Jekyll and Hyde. Baylor was at least consistent. OSU lost Dez and can't score if they wanted to. THe NORTH was just as weak when the winner (NEB) could only gain 104 yards against TX
(albeit they knew they couldn't pass.) Mizzou inconsistent. Anybody else worth mentioning? NOT!!!!!!

These are the SEC plays that I will definitely be on.

Kentucky +7.5 (Best Bet)

Georgia -7

LSU +2.5

Florida -11.5 (Best Bet)

South Carolina -4.5

Ole Miss -3

Arkansas -7.5

Bama -4.5 (Best Bet)

I initially said I would play on any SEC team getting points, but due to considerable distractions in Knoxville, I definitely won't be playing Tennessee.  The Vols appear to be a sinking ship at this point.  See my Tennessee link for more info:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100612028

I'm still mulling a play on Auburn, but right now I'm inclined to lay off.  If this thing drops below 7, I may bite.

 

Will add a non-SEC bet.

Utah +3.5

I agree with your take and won't bet against the SEC in the Bowls....matter of fact, I am sitting out the Bowls entirely........BUT.......I will fade the SEC in the NC game.

 

Your doing a good job at hyping the SEC up to the forum. Might as well wait on BAMA your going to get -3 or -4 by kickoff...

I'm hyping winners my friend.

I will not bet Bama until the day of the game because I don't want to tie up that much money between now and then.  And while I'm all for getting the best line available, anything less than 7 in this game is a gift.  The game won't be close.

 

 

Oh really? LOL....you too eh?

 

 

You spend too much time listening to talk radio.

Come on Choi, you've been so far, successfully, swaying me to the DARK SIDE since that post from a galaxy far, far away.  I was still very very pissed at TX, but Obi-wan is still my mentor.  But  my father still  tries to  make me feel  the power of the DARK side.

I also played SMU when they were +15.  The line has dropped on Bookmaker to 12.5, but even a that, I will make this play official.

SMU +12.5

I played Boston College today at +9 based on the following Joe McKnight thread, but forgot to post it earlier.  The score is 24-13 right now so it may be a loser anyhow.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100610099

 

I already have Kentucky +7.5, but I will add Kentucky ML as well.