my worry with your theory is that the SEC simply hasn't been very good this year.
and they have loss to a number of teams OOC during the year. Houston, Okie State, and UCLA to name a few.
Well Kroch, first let me say that using the word "theory" was a poor choice of words, because what has happened in the past is fact - not theory. I should have used the word "strategy."
It is not a "theory" that, year in and year out, the majority of the best athletes in the nation opt to play their collegiate football careers at SEC schools.
It is not a "theory" that 5 out of the 8 SEC teams were underdogs in last year's bowl games, and the SEC won 4 of those outright. So tip #1 would be if you can get an SEC team with points, you should be on it like a hobo on a ham sandwich!!! Overall the SEC cover 6 out of their 8 games or 75%.
It is my "theory," that based on similar results in bowl games pretty much every year since I've been alive, that the SEC will cover at least 70% of their bowl games again this year. At first blush, you've got 4 no-brainers right off the top: Alabama, Florida, Arkansas & Ole Miss.
As far as out-of-conference losses are concerned, the SEC loses a few of these every year, and of the 3 teams you mentioned that beat SEC teams, none would win in re-matches today IMHO. Miss St and Tennessee were both breaking in new coaching staffs and are much, much better teams now versus when they played earlier in the season.
As for the Georgia/Okie St game is concerned, I watched the entire game, and it was very clear who the better team was, and it certainly wasn't the Cowboys. And despite the fact Joe Cox was missing wide open receivers all over the field in his first collegiate start, Georgia still probably would have won had the officials not gift wrap Okie State's last 2 TDs.
And despite your contention that the SEC is not very good this year, that is the same thing people say every year. But these are the same people who don't realize that SEC teams have to play each other, and that is a guaranteed 48 losses a year for SEC teams. Of the 10 SEC teams that are playing in bowl games, only Georgia and Tennessee have lost out-of-conference games (UCLA & Okie State).
The fact of the matter is that the gap between the SEC and the other conferences (with the possible exception of the PAC 10) is widening, not shrinking. Accordingly, this should (WILL) be another dominating performance by the SEC in bowl games this season. It is your choice whether you want to profit it or not.
you might like my preliminary card:
Oregon St, Cal, Nevada, USC, Georgia, Stanford, LSU, Oregon, Florida, Ol Miss, Troy, Alabama
I haven't had much of an opportunity to look at most of these games, but I seriously doubt I would have much of an argument with any of them.
BOL to you brotha!!! 
The SEC is NOT down!!! This false notion costs people money every year in bowl games. Pretty much every SEC loss is to another SEC team. The SEC is NOT down, but outside of Alabama and Florida, they are seeing a great deal of parity. It will probably be even more so next year, when Florida drops back into the pack.
I think he meant to say "forgot" Arkansas, not "forget" Arkansas. So I don't think he was dumping on the at all. Quite to the contrary.
I just cap the games, not the conferences Jimmy.
also several of the SEC's traditional big bowls are against the Little 10 which has been down for several years which inflates that bowl record.
I remember a few years back Florida getting whacked by lowly Michigan in Carr's last game---favored by over 2 TDs. i do like SEC teams in bowls catching points, I'll say that.
As far as this year, Alabama isn't what i would call a "no brainer." LSU vs. PSU should be a decent game---and one where i hope LSU is favored by 6-7 so i can take JoePa. Florida will probably destroy Cincy. Ole Miss is never as good as a favorite as opposed to when they are dogs (I put large money on them last year against Tech). They will probably be favored by 6-7 and the game means a lot more to OSU. Tenn vs. VaTech is probably a coin flip. Kentucky will be catching points against Clemson and could be the only SEC team not favored. does Georgia really care about Shreveport? ask yourself that question.
year in, year out bowl season is the toughest spot to make money. i try and ignore my early leans and wait until gameday....there is just so much more to these games than in the regular season.
Yes, I understand JW, but Ice was responding to a post by jcam in which he stated that the SEC was 10 & 4 versus other BCS conferences. Ice indentified 3 of those losses, but was struggling with the 4th.
I just cap the games, not the conferences Jimmy.
also several of the SEC's traditional big bowls are against the Little 10 which has been down for several years which inflates that bowl record.
I remember a few years back Florida getting whacked by lowly Michigan in Carr's last game---favored by over 2 TDs. i do like SEC teams in bowls catching points, I'll say that.
As far as this year, Alabama isn't what i would call a "no brainer." LSU vs. PSU should be a decent game---and one where i hope LSU is favored by 6-7 so i can take JoePa. Florida will probably destroy Cincy. Ole Miss is never as good as a favorite as opposed to when they are dogs (I put large money on them last year against Tech). They will probably be favored by 6-7 and the game means a lot more to OSU. Tenn vs. VaTech is probably a coin flip. Kentucky will be catching points against Clemson and could be the only SEC team not favored. does Georgia really care about Shreveport? ask yourself that question.
year in, year out bowl season is the toughest spot to make money. i try and ignore my early leans and wait until gameday....there is just so much more to these games than in the regular season.
Of course the SEC does not win and cover every bowl game, and I have never suggested that they do. Of course I remember the Florida/Michigan game from 2 years ago, and I remember last year's Bama/Utah game. But the point of my OP was not about individual games, it is about the SEC's overall performance in bowl games year-in and year-out.
As far as the individual matchups you speak of, with the exception of Alabama, I pretty much agree with what you're saying with respect to Kentucky, Tennessee & Georgia. Va Tech traditionally performs very, very well in bowl games, so Tennesse will certainly have their hands full in that game.
At this point, Bookmaker only has lines up for Florida and Alabama so I'll have to wait and see what the lines are before I can really fomulate a strong opinion on the others.
As I said in the original post, "the lines, the motivation of the teams invovled, and other intangibles should guide your final decision making process." I just wouldn't bet against any of these SEC teams.
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