One of the closest races in the U.S. House of Representatives, according to prediction markets, is between Virginians John McGuire (R) and Tom Perriello (D).
Prediction leader Kalshi shows on Tuesday that McGuire has a slight lead in the likelihood of securing the open seat.
McGuire, a former Navy SEAL, has the incumbent advantage, with a 60% market likelihood. He hopes to continue in the U.S. House after assuming office in Jan. 2025. He was in the Virginia Senate and the Virginia House of Delegates before that.
His opponent, Perriello (40%), had a brief stint in the U.S. House of Reps. for Virginia from 2009-11. Since then, he served as a Special Representative for the Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review, the U.S. Special Envoy for the African Great Lakes, and a U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan.
- McGuire is the incumbent and part of the previous Red Wave
- Perriello represented Virginia in the U.S. House from 2009 to 2011
- Prediction markets favor McGuire.
McGuire had a 65% chance of winning his campaign at Kalshi just one week ago. He dropped to 56% before rebounding up to 67% on Sunday, although he is falling at the most inopportune time.
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Perriello (D) vs. McGuire (R) prediction
McGuire hopes to help Virginians buy homes by proposing tax relief for first-time buyers and penalty-free retirement withdrawals for down payments and closing costs. He also supports a market approach to health care with intra-state insurance shopping.
Perriello has taken a stance against President Donald Trump’s tariffs and conflict with Iran. He wants Congress to reclaim the authority to enforce tariffs and war power, and also wants to protect Medicaid and rural health care.
The two men raised just about as much as each other during their campaigns. Prediction markets are moving in the direction of Perriello on the morning of the midterm elections, but McGuire’s platform and advantage as an incumbent, despite the possibility of a “Blue Wave,” make him a strong pick to win his campaign.
My pick for Perriello vs. McGuire: McGuire ($0.60) | TRADE THIS MARKET ON KALSHI
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More midterm election battleground states odds
Senate control races and Governors’ Mansion races across America will come down to key battleground states. With statewide races heating up everywhere, many key states have plenty of interesting races.
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