Election season is reaching its climax, and results will soon be trickling in. In turn, prediction market traders who bought election contracts on Kalshi or Polymarket will soon know whether they won.
A big question from traders in the next few days, and potentially weeks, will be, “When do election prediction markets settle?”
Traders should know that midterm prediction market payouts vary, and that every contract follows its own resolution criteria. Some markets can settle after a qualifying media projection, while others may need additional verification or wait until a specified determination date.
- Election prediction market payout timelines vary by contract rules.
- Markets may settle early via media consensus or wait for official verification.
- Recounts, close races, and legal challenges can delay payouts for days or weeks.
The prediction market experts at Covers recommend checking your specific market’s rules and determination date.
When do Kalshi midterm election contracts settle?
Kalshi election payouts should settle within a few hours after the outcome becomes known, but market-specific rules can extend that timeline - according to the Kalshi website.
First, you need to know where to find the rules and important information on a Kalshi market page.
For specific rules on Kalshi election payouts, scroll down the page you are viewing. Let’s use the popular Kalshi page, “Who will control the Senate?” as an example.
The first thing you see is a chart showing recent pricing trends for the Democratic Party and the Republican Party. Below that is the “Chance” percentage and current pricing (ex., Yes 72 cents, No 29 cents).
Below that, you will see Kalshi list other related markets like “Balance of Power,” “Election Specials,” and “Seat Counts.”
You will want to scroll past other related markets, the “People are also trading” section, and the “Breaking News” section.
Finally, you will reach “Market Rules” and a sub-section titled “View full rules.”
Click on “View full rules” for a full explanation of when Kalshi will pay out election bets.
Kalshi users must also understand the difference between closing time and determination time.
- Market close time is when trading officially ends for a contract.
- Determination time is when Kalshi confirms a contract's official outcome after it stops trading, using the designated data source listed in the market’s rules.
In the case of “Who will control the Senate?,” the source agency is congress.gov.
Kalshi also uses designated media sources to resolve a midterm election contract on an “accelerated basis.” According to Kalshi rules, if at least four of the eight designated media sources have declared a winning candidate, party, or option, and none have issued a contradictory declaration, then a midterm election contract may be resolved.
The designated media sources that Kalshi uses for midterm elections are: The New York Times, The Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, and ABC News.
When a market settles and Kalshi confirms the outcome, winning contracts automatically convert to $1.00 per contract and move into your cash balance.
Different midterm election contracts will have different timelines. For instance, the timeline for the Los Angeles mayoral race differs from the timeline for a US Senate seat. LA mayors are typically sworn in in December of the same year following a November election. New US Senators will not be sworn in until Jan. 3, 2027.
In the 2026 Senate Control market, Kalshi currently states that settlement is based on media consensus, with a fallback tied to the president pro tempore’s party on Feb. 1, 2027, if there is no consensus. That makes this an especially useful example of why users must read the individual contract terms.
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When does Polymarket pay out election contracts?
Polymarket and Kalshi write different contracts, so market closure and/or resolution times may not always match.
Polymarket's published resolution guidance explains that qualifying winning shares are worth $1 each after resolution. Its standard UMA resolution process includes a two-hour challenge period; disputes can extend the process.
Polymarket’s rules for “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?” state that the resolution sources for this particular market “will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.”
Will my election contract pay out on Election Night?
Some midterm election contracts will pay out on election night. Others will not.
It will depend on the rules of the particular prediction market site you’re using, and the rules of the particular contract.
If a certain number of a prediction market’s designated media sources declare a winner on election night, users could see a payout that night.
There will be many “too close to call” races on election night, which will delay resolutions and potential payouts.
Can recounts or election certifications delay my payout?
Yes. Recounts or election certifications may delay payouts.
Many elections will be “too close to call” on election night, and could remain “too close to call” in the days and weeks that follow.
Consider that the 2000 US Presidential Election between George W. Bush and Al Gore was in limbo for 36 days.
Media outlets will often cite “projected winners” on election night. These are unofficial winners.
Some midterm prediction markets will resolve before results become “official”, however.
In the case of Senate control at Kalshi, for instance, the market may resolve on election night if at least four of the site’s designated media sources have declared a winning party, and none of the designated media sources have issued a contradictory declaration.
Prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket may delay payouts if recounts and legal challenges are possible. This will likely arise in many markets in the hours and days after the 2026 midterms.
Why hasn’t my Kalshi or Polymarket contract settled yet?
Many elections will not have a result until Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2026. Some may be disputed for a few more days or even weeks.
Some of the common reasons for Kalshi or Polymarket contract settlement delays when it comes to the midterms include:
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Waiting on confirmation of results from official sources
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Challenge periods (2 hours in the case of Polymarket)
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Waiting on the result of another leg in a combo market
Be sure to review each contract’s settlement rules. Also, check the account’s portfolio, trading history, or resolution status.
Contact Kalshi support or Polymarket support if the specified determination window has passed.
When can I withdraw my election market winnings?
Kalshi credits winning contracts to your cash balance after settlement, but bank withdrawals typically take several business days. Some deposited funds can also remain subject to security holds.
Polymarket also credits winning contracts to your cash balance after settlement, but bank withdrawals can take 3-to-4 business days for a debit card or bank transfer (ACH).
