NFL Picks

Hunter is fourth in the NFL with 13 sacks while ranking fifth in pressures (75). He should thrive against the Chargers, who have surrendered 51 sacks due to a slew of injuries at tackle. Left tackle Rashawn Slater has missed the entire year, while stud sophomore Joe Alt hit the IR in November. Jamaree Salyer was holding down the fort on the blindside but got injured last week and has been ruled out for Week 17. Hunter usually lines up on the right side, so he'll get a juicy matchup against whoever the Bolts are forced to play at LT. He's picked up at least half a sack in five of his last seven games and should get to Justin Herbert on Saturday.

The Texans allow very few touchdowns to receivers, and their pass rush will be after Justin Herbert early and often.

That means we should see an increased touch count for Omarion Hampton, especially with Kimani Vidal questionable for Saturday's game. In addition, he could see an uptick in dump-offs as Herbert looks to avoid getting sacked.

Hampton has scored in two of his three outings since returning from injury, and dominated the red zone touches in those games. Against a Texans defense that ranks 23rd in red zone scoring, he's the best chance for us to cash in on an anytime touchdown for the Bolts.

 

Baltimore will start Tyler Huntley on Saturday night. Expect the Ravens to take pressure off their backup passer by relying on Pro Bowl RB Derrick Henry. Henry has logged at least 18 carries in eight of his last 10 games. That includes Huntley's previous start this season when Henry rushed 21 times for 71 yards versus the Bears in Week 8. The 247-pound bruiser thrives in cold weather games and has churned out more than 90 yards in his last three contests. He should get plenty of work against a Packers defense that has allowed 29.8 rush attempts per game over the last four weeks.

The line moved from Baltimore +2.5 to +4.5 after Lamar Jackson was designated as doubtful. That's puzzling since it already seemed highly unlikely he would play and the Packers now have less motivation after clinching a playoff spot due to a Lions loss on Christmas Day. Keep in mind that Jackson has been less than full strength due to multiple injuries and backup Tyler Huntley is experienced and played well when he started against Chicago earlier this year. Huntley won't be asked to do too much since the Ravens will lean on Pro Bowl RB Derrick Henry and their improved D (fifth in the league in defensive success rate since Wk 6) to keep things close. 

Baker Mayfield has completed fewer than 20 passes in 10 of 15 games this season, including in each of his last six contests. He did have 19 and 18 completions in the last four games, but he hasn’t really come close to this 31.5 number. Joe Burrow and Aaron Rodgers got into the mid-20s in passing completions the past two weeks, but Mayfield isn’t nearly as trustworthy as they are. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers should look to control the game on the ground as road favorites against the Miami Dolphins.

I don’t love backing Tampa Bay, but Bucky Irving’s price in this matchup is hard to ignore with everything on the line for the Buccaneers. Sean Tucker has taken on a more defined goal-line role, but it’s largely been limited to one-yard plunges and three carries per game. Irving, on the other hand, is handling 20-plus touches in a run-first offense that benefits from Miami having to respect the passing game, leading to softer boxes. That volume gives him a strong scoring profile, especially against a Dolphins defense that allowed six touchdowns on six red-zone trips to Joe Burrow last week. At this number, Irving has well over a 50% chance to find the end zone.

New York has lost three straight games by at least three touchdowns each, and New England should have little trouble extending that streak.

Mac Hollins’ stat line last week was easy to overlook with Stefon Diggs grabbing the headlines, but the usage was real. Hollins finished with 69 yards on seven catches and nine targets, quietly playing a key role in the passing game. He also cashed a $300K incentive with his 40th reception and now sits just four catches away from another $400K bonus. This sets up as a favorable spot for an offense that typically handles bad teams, and New England’s red-zone tendencies only add to the appeal. The Patriots’ running backs have accounted for zero touchdowns over the last three games in the red zone despite nine red-zone carries and three red-zone targets, forcing scoring equity back to the passing game. With New England capable of hanging a big number on Sunday, Hollins’ volume and motivation make him a strong plus-money consideration.

The Browns have given up the second-fewest scrimmage yards per game (277.8), have the third-most sacks, and have the soon-to-be DMVP in Myles Garrett.

They’ve improved on offense, too, with Shedeur Sanders, averaging 16.6 points per game, only marginally more than the 15.8 they average without him. 

However, you have to take their current injuries into account, and they pass the eye test a lot more with Sanders at QB.

He might not be the long-term answer, but he’s solid enough to get the Browns and their excellent defense across the line on home soil.

Make this price make sense. Warren is coming off a two-touchdown performance with 143 rushing yards against Detroit, continues to handle the majority of the workload, and owns the red-zone carries. He was priced as short as +110 for a TD just two games ago, and this number sits roughly 70 cents longer than where he closed last week. The matchup only strengthens the case. Cleveland isn’t a dominant offense capable of forcing negative game script, and the Browns were just gashed by James Cook for 117 yards and two scores on 16 carries. With plenty on the line for Pittsburgh and DK Metcalf sidelined, the Steelers may lean even more on Warren, who has been their most reliable offensive weapon entering Week 17. Even at +150, this would still be worth a bet.

Jacoby Brissett had been on fire until finishing last week's game against Atlanta with just 203 yards on 31 pass attempts. Before last week, Brissett had eclipsed his passing yards total in his first nine starts while racking up 40+ pass attempts in his previous six games. Expect a bounce-back performance on Sunday against Cincinnati who is dead-last in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate. The Bengals are also 7-point favorites so we could see a negative game script from Arizona who has been passing at an extremely high rate even in neutral game situations.

With extra scrutiny around his mood and future in Cincinnati, Burrow had a field day last weekend against the Miami Dolphins. He racked up 309 passing yards that afternoon with four TDs, and a repeat performance is on the cards on Sunday given Arizona’s defensive flaws.

The Bengals have scored 32+ points in three of their past four contests, and I’ll gladly lay the points here, with the slumping Cards just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games despite some gritty efforts from Jacoby Brissett. There are also 2026 NFL Draft considerations here for the visitors, who enter with a 3-12 record and could slide further towards the No.1 pick.

Expect an Offensive Rookie of the Year push from Saints QB Tyler Shough. Shough didn't start until Week 8 but has come on strong down the stretch. He's thrown for more than 235 yards in five of his previous six game and is coming off a career-high 308-yard performance. He has a great matchup on Sunday against Tennessee who ranks 27th in defensive pass DVOA. The Titans benefitted from facing a third-string QB last week but had surrendered 275.4 passing yards per game in their previous seven contests.

Every single victory in the Saints' three-game unbeaten run has been by at least three points, which means the Saints have covered in each contest. Their last road game was in Tampa, where they walked away with a 24-20 win. This is obviously a small spread, and if New Orleans is going to win like I expect them to, it will be by a minimum of a field goal.

The Jaguars are 12-3 to their team total Over this year, which is the best record in the NFL in that category and 7-0 on the road. 

Jacksonville and Trevor Lawrence are pushing the pace offensively, and Parker Washington’s touchdown price doesn’t reflect his current role. In an indoor matchup against an Indianapolis defense that was exposed on Monday night, his number shouldn’t be longer than +210. Washington is coming off a 10-target performance where he led all Jaguars pass catchers in targets, receptions, yards, and air yards. He also converted two red-zone targets into a 12-yard touchdown. This is a dangerous receiving trio, but Washington’s usage suggests he can pace the group again in a favorable matchup against a defense that’s shown it can be beaten.

The Carolina Panthers are getting healthier and while the Seattle Seahawks played last Thursday night, giving the Seahawks a few extra days to heal up as well, both teams should be at relatively full strength considering it’s a late-season matchup. Seattle should be able to keep the train rolling against a team that has had a successful season thanks in large part to luck, clutch play and mirrors.

 

Seattle’s defense looked very beatable in Week 16, and if Carolina is forced into a pass-heavy script, the ball is going to Tetairoa McMillan at a massive rate. He’s seen roughly every third target when the Panthers drop back, yet this is the longest his touchdown price has been in four games despite scoring in four of his last five. There’s really only one reliable option to back in the Panthers’ passing game, and it’s McMillan. Given his role, usage, and consistency in the red zone, he’s a player I’m comfortable backing weekly at +170 or better.

This number is likely to move once Brock Bowers being shut down is fully reflected in the market, but in an indoor matchup against the Giants, there’s value on backing the new TE1 at +300 or better. Michael Mayer steps into a featured role in an offense that relies heavily on tight ends. He’s a former second-round pick and already had meaningful usage even with Bowers active. Last week against Houston, Las Vegas ran two-tight-end sets on more than 50% of its snaps, and Mayer still ran routes on 58% of passing plays. With Bowers out, that route share could climb toward 90%, putting Mayer in line for five to eight targets. At that usage, this price won’t last long.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 59.8% of their chances: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week.. Right now, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (60.5% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The predictive model expects Michael Mayer to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack near the goal line in this week's game (20.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.8% in games he has played).

Knox leads the team in RZ targets over the past three weeks and has a $100,000 incentive to score one more TD this season.

Barkley has scored in three consecutive games and the Bills have given up the second most touchdowns to opposing RBs in the league.

Getting a running back at plus money in a primetime game with a total around 50 points is hard to pass up. San Francisco games have been trending over, and Chicago may need to lean heavily on D’Andre Swift with the receiving corps still dealing with injuries. Kyle Monangai’s role has started to fade, especially near the goal line. Over the last three games, Swift has logged nine red-zone carries for 46 yards and two touchdowns, while Monangai has six carries for just nine yards and no scores. Monangai’s usage was buoyed by some extra work in the passing game last week, but Swift remains the starter and the first option in scoring situations. Against a beatable defense that was just gashed for chunk plays by Philip Rivers on Monday night, Swift’s role and price make sense.

The Bears have a rare rest edge at this point in the season thanks to playing last Saturday and the 49ers featuring in Monday Night Football. That two-day edge is especially valuable on a travel week and sets up Chicago for success against the weakest defense it’s faced in a long time. This offense has been one of the best in the second half of the schedule, despite some strong defensive opposition. Chicago has played the Packers twice, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Minnesota in the past six outings. San Francisco, on the other hand, ranks well below those foes in defensive measurements.

Last week, Sean McVay deployed three-tight-end sets on an eye-popping 61% of snaps. Colby Parkinson, Davis Allen, and Terrance Ferguson all played at least 65% of the snaps and combined for 13 targets on 51 dropbacks. That usage makes the entire group intriguing from a props standpoint, but Parkinson stands out. He’s coming off a quiet outing that burned some bettors, which should help keep his number in check. THE BLITZ projects him for over 4.5 catches and 47 receiving yards, well above his current lines. Parkinson led all Rams in snap share at 85% and should remain heavily involved in another indoor, must-win spot. Indoor environments boost passing volume and efficiency, and with the Rams clearly committed to featuring their tight ends, Parkinson’s role sets up well. The Over 33.5 receiving yards is my preferred look, and the Over 3.5 receptions at -120 is also very playable.

With Davante Adams likely sidelined again, Xavier Smith should see meaningful snaps as the No. 2 or No. 3 receiver. Smith brings true vertical speed with a sub-4.40 40-yard dash and has the ability to get behind defenses, which showed up last week on a 48-yard catch. He’s a classic boom-or-bust option, but the opportunity is there. Smith ran the third-most routes among the Rams wide receivers and only needs one or two connections to pay off at this number. Konata Mumpfield may draw more attention on Monday night, but at +600 or better, Smith offers the better risk-reward profile.