NFL Picks

The Denver Broncos are on the up and up, boasting second-year QB Bo Nix and arguably the best defense in the NFL, especially after bolstering the stop unit during free agency and the draft. Meanwhile, the New York Jets will be a team in transition, featuring new head coach Aaron Glenn and putting all their chips in on QB Justin Fields. I like the Broncos sitting just below the key number of a touchdown.

We're getting a good number at Colts -4 with some shops as high as -5.5 and public perception likely going to push this spread to the key number of -6. Indianapolis is for real and displayed that on both sides of the ball in a one-sided win over Las Vegas. Arizona is on the road for just the second time in five weeks and has only been able to beat crap competition like Carolina and New Orleans. Indianapolis is also a massive step up on offensive fire power as well. 

Dallas is rolling on offense, and while the defense still can’t make enough stops, I’m not convinced the Carolina offense can keep pace. The Panthers are fifth last in offensive DVOA and quarterback Bryce Young is tossing for just 5.5 yards per attempt with a underwhelming 60.9 completion percentage.

Detroit has won four straight in convincing fashion and ranks higher in DVOA than Kansas City on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs will also have a short week after playing on Monday Night Football in Week 5, and I expect the Lions defense to make more stops Sunday night. 

This total opened as high as 50.5 points and initial action on the Under knocked this down to 48.5 Over/Under by Monday afternoon. The Falcons not only can gain ground with the run, but QB Michael Penix Jr. is looking sharper as the starter and connecting with his talented receivers. He had big games at home versus Tampa Bay and Washington already in 2025. Josh Allen gets to come inside the fast track of Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Monday night. He’s yet to play indoors this season but sees a spike in production in rare spots under a dome, including jumps in average yards per attempt and completion rate.

New Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen faces a familiar foe in Sean McVay — his former boss of four seasons. It’s a massive time jump for the Los Angeles Rams, who will be eight hours ahead of Pacific Time in Week 7. The last time McVay’s team was in the UK, it played on the East Coast the week before and stayed out east before jumping the pond. As of right now, I want to lay Los Angeles -3.5, but I’m curious to see what the Rams' Week 6 matchup looks like.

Given the tightness of this spread, bookies expect Anthony Richardson to get right and be the quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts when Week 10 rolls around. Indy's other option is Daniel Jones, who should warrant a spread closer to the field goal. The Atlanta Falcons seem to have their QB1 in Michael Penix Jr. after his strong finish to the season. Atlanta scored 24, 34, and 38 points in its final three games, showcasing plenty of firepower around Penix. I'm rolling with Atlanta in Berlin. 

This is the first time the NFL has ventured to Madrid, and they’re giving the Spanish crowds a solid matchup — if Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy enough to see Week 11. The dark cloud hovering over this one is the grass surface inside Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. That sod was replaced four times during Real Madrid’s most recent La Liga campaign, which was marred by injuries. Many are pointing to the integrity of the hybrid surface as the reason for all those ailments. A shitty field could slow down both the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins offenses. I’ll go Under 49.5 points.

Although the Dallas Cowboys' defense will be more stable under new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus, it's hard to overlook a unit that was gashed on the ground and allowed a bottom-five mark in yards per play last season. Patrick Mahomes will torch them on the fast track at Jerry World, boasting a deep arsenal that includes a now-healthy Rashee Rice. With George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to bolster the Cowboys’ receiving corps, Dak Prescott should also be able to air it out — even if much of the damage comes in classic garbage-time mop-up duty at AT&T Stadium. The Kansas City Chiefs' defense lost key veterans in the secondary, including corner Charvarius Ward and safety Justin Reid. While their younger replacements may eventually settle into Steve Spagnuolo's system, it could take some time for them to get fully up to speed.

The Cincinnati Bengals have lost their last four games against the Baltimore Ravens and are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head matchups with their AFC North rivals. With Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry spearheading a loaded offense, Baltimore's defense should also see a boost following the draft selections of safety Malaki Starks and edge rusher Mike Green. Back the Ravens to cover at home, where they went 5-3-1 ATS last season.

The Bears will have a new HC in Ben Johnson, and many people hold him in high regard for his ability to run an offense. He'll have a full complement of weapons to work with, including Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. And on defense, they should be stout in the trenches and on the outside. The Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl victory, could be in for a letdown this year, and while this November clash is three months into the season, things could snowball if the team isn't 100% focused from Week 1. 

The Washington Commanders bolstered their offense by adding Pro Bowl tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, while also re-signing reliable safety valve Zach Ertz. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys were torched both on the ground and through the air in 2024, and they did little to address those issues through free agency or the draft. Expect the Commanders to roll and cover the spread at home. Dallas finished just 7-10 against the spread in 2024, while Washington rewarded bettors with a 10-6 ATS record.

Although the Detroit Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago, it was the defense — not the offense — that ultimately led to their playoff downfall last season. The return of star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson will be especially important, and I expect Detroit’s front four to make life tough for J.J. McCarthy on Christmas Day. Even against the Minnesota Vikings’ elite defense, Jared Goff had no trouble moving the ball last season, with the Lions putting up 30+ points in both matchups. Back Detroit to cover and secure the road win at U.S. Bank Stadium.