The Dallas Stars earned their first victory of the series in Game 4 thanks to a clutch overtime winner from Joe Pavelski but still have a tall task ahead of them down 3-1.
Meanwhile, the Vegas Golden Knights have been excellent on home ice and have a chance to close things out at T-Mobile Arena tonight.
Can Vegas advance to its second Stanley Cup Final in six years? I break it all down in my Stars vs Golden Knights NHL picks for Saturday, May 27.
Stars vs Golden Knights Game 5 odds
Stars vs Golden Knights Game 5 predictions
Joe Pavelski stole the headlines for the Dallas Stars in Game 4, scoring the overtime winner just over three minutes into the extra frame. It was Jason Robertson, though, who got them into overtime by scoring two game-tying tallies in regulation.
Robertson, whose 109 points in the regular season were 31 more than the next-closest skater on Dallas, has woken up in the Western Conference Final. After recording just two goals in his first 13 games of the postseason, Robertson has now tallied four goals and five points this series to lead all skaters in goals and co-lead in points.
The winger leads the Stars in several key underlying categories in the series well, including 1.9 expected goals, 33 shot attempts, and 13 scoring chances. It’s fair to say that all signs point to Robertson being the offensive catalyst again in Game 5.
Robertson has found the back of the net in three of four contests this series and if the Stars are going to force Game 6, he’ll likely need to pot at least one more goal tonight.
My best bet: Jason Robertson to score a goal (+140)
Stars vs Golden Knights Game 5 same-game parlay
Jason Robertson to score a goal (+135)
Jason Robertson Over 3.5 shots on goal (-115)
Stars team total Under 2.5 (-115)
While Robertson has been a shining star for Dallas in the Western Conference Final, we can’t be as complimentary of the team’s offense as a whole. The Stars are averaging just 2.67 goals per game in the series and have recorded three goals or more in two of four games.
Vegas, meanwhile, is giving up just 2.69 gpg in this postseason — the sixth-best mark among all 16 clubs that participated. The Golden Knights have held their opponents to less than three goals in four of their last eight contests.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Stars vs Golden Knights Game 5 moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Golden Knights unsurprisingly opened as the home favorite for Game 5 at -136 on the moneyline and saw their edge jump up to around -150 at most books by Saturday morning. Dallas found a way to stay alive in Game 4 but I expect we’ll see Vegas finish things off at home tonight.
It all starts at 5-on-5 for the Golden Knights, who have absolutely dominated this series at even strength. Vegas has outscored Dallas 11-4 at 5-on-5 through four games and that’s a trend we’ve seen throughout these playoffs. The Golden Knights have 42 even-strength goals during their run — nine more than the next-closest clubs.
Another factor that pushes me in favor of the home team is goaltending as Jake Oettinger has been woeful this postseason. The Dallas netminder owns an .899 SV% and 2.94 GAA through 17 games and has seen those numbers fall even further in this series to an .886 SV% and 3.73 GAA.
The Stars were able to hold the Golden Knights to just two goals in Game 4 and even though Oettinger was great with 37 saves, his track record suggests it likely won’t happen again.
The total for this contest opened at 5.5 goals and based on team trends, I think the Under is the smart play tonight.
The Under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between the two teams at T-Mobile Arena and 15-4-2 in their last 21 meetings overall. The Under has also cashed in three of four games in this series, with Game 1 being the only exception.
Both clubs have also historically tightened up in the Conference Finals: the Stars have cashed the Under in nine of their last 12 Conference Finals outings, while the Under is 9-1-1 in the Golden Knights’ last 11 contests in this round.
Three of four games have gone to overtime in this series yet the clubs have combined for five goals or fewer in three of those contests, which should illustrate just how low-scoring this Western Conference Final has been so far.
Adin Hill has been a big reason for that as he’s posted a .943 SV% and a 1.95 GAA in the Vegas cage. If just one of Hill or Oettinger is on point again, we’ll likely see another low-scoring duel tonight.
Best NHL bonuses
Looking to do some NHL betting? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Stars vs Golden Knights betting trend to know
The home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Golden Knights.
Stars vs Golden Knights Game 5 game info
|Location:||T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV|
|Date:||Saturday, May 27, 2023|
|Puck drop:||8:00 p.m. ET|