NHL 2023 Stanley Cup Finals Odds & Betting Preview

It’s been a few days since bettors have seen playoff hockey, but the Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights will begin the Stanley Cup Finals Saturday night in Sin City with the home side sitting as slight -130 favorites in Game 1.

It will take four more wins to hoist the best trophy in sports, and although it hasn’t been the most predictive playoffs and Stanley Cup odds have been flipped more than a burger, the two best postseason teams will meet in the Final. Considering the rosters and NHL odds prices, this is going to be a tight series. 

Here’s my breakdown of the Stanley Cup Finals.

Odds to win the Stanley Cup 

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each team from regulated sportsbooks. Analysis below may not match live odds.

Stanley Cup Finals: Florida Panthers vs Vegas Golden Knights

How we got here

Florida Panthers:

The Florida Panthers have knocked off three Cup betting favorites in the Bruins, Maple Leafs, and Hurricanes on their path to the Cup Finals after finishing with the fewest points of all 16 playoff teams. It all started with an improbable 3-1 series comeback over Boston in the first round which was won in overtime in Game 7. Since then, they’ve gone 8-1 SU and have had plenty of rest after sweeping the Hurricanes in the third round. 

Following that Round 1 win, Sergei Bobrovsky has posted a .954 SV% and has won seven of his last eight games by a single goal. If this series was being played on neutral ice, the series price would resemble more of a pick ‘em.

Vegas Golden Knights:

The Vegas Golden Knights finished with the most points in the Western Conference at 111 and took out the Winnipeg Jets in five games in the first round. They then took care of MVP Connor McDavid in the second round in six games and needed another six games to beat the Dallas Stars after jumping out to a 3-0 series lead in the Western Conference Finals.

Vegas has also benefitted from the play in net from a goalie who wasn’t the No. 1 at the beginning of the first round. Adin Hill has subbed in and gone 7-3 SU with a .937 SV%, ranking third in goals saved above expected/60 (GSAx/60) in the playoffs.  

Panthers X-factor: Sergei Bobrovsky

Sergei Bobrovsky is the betting favorite for the Conn Smythe (playoff MVP) heading into the final round and there is reason for it. He’s why the Panthers escaped the Round 1, but he is also the sole reason they took eight of nine vs. the Leafs and Canes. Bobrovsky posted a .954 SV% in those two rounds and has stopped all 54 shots he’s seen in overtime. He's 6-0 SU in those extra-time matches.

The time off could be an issue with the hot goaltender as his pedigree over the last couple of seasons is not high. Playoff Bob conceded the No. 1 role this year and didn’t even start against the B's until mid series.

However, there is a reason why he is the highest-paid ($10 million AAV) active goalie in the league and that’s because he can put on a clinic like he’s done so far in the postseason. If his play can carry over from the third round, Vegas could be scrambling to hit that three-goal mark in the series. 

Golden Knights X-factor: Special teams

With how close this series is projected to be, the Knights' special teams could make or break this series. They came into the postseason with the No. 20 penalty kill and the No. 18 power play and have posted even worse numbers in the playoffs.

They did manage to beat an Edmonton team that had a near-50% PP but have another test with a Florida power play that had four PP goals in the final three games of the Carolina series — accounting for 57% of its offensive output in that trio of matches.

On the other side, the Vegas power play has a good matchup vs. a Florida penalty kill that has a 71.2% success rate, which ranks as the fourth-worst mark of all 16 initial playoff teams. VGK is drawing nearly a full penalty more per game in the playoffs than the Panthers and if the Knights can win on both sides of the special teams, it will be the difference in this projected tight series.  

Panthers vs Golden Knights series prediction

These are two very similar teams that are both led by great coaches who have shown the ability to adjust within a seven-game set.

Paul Maurice has beaten the best team in hockey history, shut down the elite Toronto offense, and then swept one of the best defensive and well-coached teams in the third round. He will get Florida ready for this series — especially with all the extra time off.

Speaking of rest, many subjective handicaps will point to the time off that Florida has had since its Game 4 win back on May 24, but at this point of the season, rest is a good thing. Vegas has also been off since Monday so both teams will come into the series rested and coming off a break.

The Knights have a great coach in Bruce Cassidy and match up very well with Florida. Vegas can match the top-scoring line of the Panthers (Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett) with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault. Both teams have great defensive centers in Aleksander Barkov and Chandler Stephenson (and Mark Stone on the wing), while also possessing solid bottom-six scoring depth.

I see no edge defensively as both clubs are loaded with talent while each team also has been riding some netminding that is playing above expectations. Both Bobrovsky and Hill come into the series playing incredibly in net.

Finally, neither team really exceeds with special teams. 

There might have been 19 points separating these two clubs in the regular season, but the parallels between them are oddly similar and it’s hard to expect this series to go anything less than six games. 

I’m happy to put two units on the Over 5.5 total games in the series at -190 as I think there is a better than 66% chance that we see a Game 6, but if that is outside some bettors’ thresholds, the series tied 2-2 after four games at +190 is a solid option and available at bet365. 

Best bet: Series game total Over 5.5 (-190 at bet365)

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